Bernd
09/20/2021 (Mon) 13:28:45
No.45064
del
09/20/2021 (Mon) 13:28:45
No.45064
del
>>45063
The way I understand geological evidence of prior such events (I think that's briefly mentioned in the paper too), the mean time to happen is 100,000 years.
How this translates into chance to happen during this particular eruption, I don't know, but by rule of thumb I'd use previous figure, let's say it's 10x as likely to happen than anywhere else (since the particular slope is established to be unstable), I would estimate 0.1% at max.
The way I understand geological evidence of prior such events (I think that's briefly mentioned in the paper too), the mean time to happen is 100,000 years.
How this translates into chance to happen during this particular eruption, I don't know, but by rule of thumb I'd use previous figure, let's say it's 10x as likely to happen than anywhere else (since the particular slope is established to be unstable), I would estimate 0.1% at max.