The Process Through Which the First Major Central Bank Goes Bust Has Begun | Zero Hedge
Description: The consensus view is that a Central Bank can never go bust because it can always print money to remain solvent. This is misguided.
Keywords: Zero Hedge,Zerohedge,Finance,Economics,Markets,Politics,Analysis,Bitcoin,Bond,Central Banks,Germany,Japan,Quantitative Easing
Date: 2013-01-07T00:00:00Z

### ManY LeVeLS INDeeD...

by williambanzai7 - Dec 13, 2017 11:06 AM

The queer case of FBI Stud Muffin Pete Strzok...

### Bill O'Reilly: Secret Tape Exists Of Woman Offered $200K To File Sexual Harassment Charges Against Trump (AUDIO)

by ZeroPointNow - Dec 13, 2017 11:36 AM

"It will change the whole discussion if it ever gets out"

### The Fed is Arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic (the Iceberg Comes in 2018).

by Phoenix Capital... - Dec 13, 2017 12:22 PM

The Fed is expected to raise rates today. Meanwhile, the Everything Bubble drifts towards an "iceberg."

# The Process Through Which the First Major Central Bank Goes Bust Has Begun

by Phoenix Capital...
Dec 11, 2017 9:07 AM
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In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.

The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the “risk free rate” to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to:

1) Backstop the financial system (sovereign bonds are the bedrock for all risk).

2) Induce capital to flee cash (ZIRP and NIRP punish those sitting on cash) and move into risk assets, thereby reflating asset bubbles.

In this regard, these policies worked: the crisis was halted and the financial markets began reflating.

However, Central Banks have now set the stage for a crisis many times worse than 2008.

Let me explain…

The 2008 crisis was triggered by large financial firms going bust as the assets they owned (bonds based on mortgages) turned out to be worth much less (if not worthless), than the financial firms had been asserting.

This induced a panic, as a crisis of confidence rippled throughout the global private banking system.

During the next crisis, this same development will unfold (a crisis in confidence induced by the underlying assets being worth much less than anyone believes), only this time it will be CENTRAL banks (not private banks) facing this issue.

The consensus view is that a Central Bank can never go bust because it can always print money to remain solvent.

However, this is misguided.

Central Banks are currently sitting atop over $10 TRILLION in bonds, courtesy of nine years of QE programs.

These bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, these bonds will drop in value as their yields rise to accommodate the move in inflation.

When a Central Bank is sitting atop trillion of dollars in bonds, an inflationary spike inducing those bonds to drop could very quickly wipe out $100 billion or more in capital.

Now, you might argue that the same Central Bank could simply print more money to prop up the bond markets… but doing so would only increase inflation … which in turn would force bonds prices lower… inducing greater losses.

You get the point.

Policies like QE and ZIRP only work as long as the financial system maintains confidence in the currency a Central Bank is printing. The minute that currency begins to devalue rapidly due to inflation, the whole game is over.

This process has already started. The explosion of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is just one way in which the system is losing confidence in primary currencies.

The recent spike in bond yields is another. Across the globe, the $100+ trillion bond market is begin to lurch towards an inflationary future. Below you can see these moves in Germany’s 10-Year Government bonds, Japan’s 10-Year Government bonds, and the US’s 10-Year Treasuries.

The time to prepare for this is NOW before the carnage hits.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s to come when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

- Germany
- Japan
- Central Banks
- Bond
- Quantitative Easing
- Bitcoin

- Phoenix Capital Research's blog
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farmboy Dec 12, 2017 2:19 AM

Unfortunately a link is assumed in this article between inflation and bonds.

Because politicians are behind this proces , inflation is also an artificial number controlled by the official = political institutions so in theory inflation can be zero even if for real people it is very high. I argue that bonds can even rise from here because in a collapse you get at least your money back. The point of no return heading to a catastrofic outcome has been passed long ago.

MPJones Dec 11, 2017 11:52 PM

Fiat currencies are unsuitable as wealth preservation vehicles. Central banks create no wealth to back their funny-money fraud, just worthless tokens. These can be used for exchange purposes but have no or limited intrinsic value. You could say that the value of government bonds is based on the perceived ability of governments to extort taxes from their populations in the future.

Central banks are an abomination that should not exist. They are the bane of sound money and fundamentally nothing but institutionalised fraud.

Karl Marxist Dec 11, 2017 9:44 PM

All I know is a lot of people are gonna be really upset ... or dead. Like, starved and into an actual 6+ million, the handy figure the Jews have thrown about in the NYT's 150 or so times between 1913 and 1938 to extrapolate sympathy, free money, protection and massive power. These are a people who don't actually produce anything. Why should they? They've rigged the world so they don't have to yet gain all the rewards. Bitcoin has sent them a message but none will heed its warning. Why should they? Their own prints up all the free money they could ever dream up and rigged the system to a problem so terrible no one will ever solve it short up blowing up the planet. Their behaviors predictable: 1) attack 2) flee, 3) avoid, 4) neglect, 5) succumb -- the latter succumb with all of humanity in it so that their massive crimes including rape and murder of millions of children for sexual "gratification" as a reward for their compliance, are buried forevermore on charcoal Earth. But the eternal spirit that is God and Man will never forget no matter the next few Earth's mankind will come to inhabit.

Aireannpure Dec 11, 2017 9:20 PM

Crypto is the end game and central banks (Gov.) will out law it. Remember the first rule of central banks is to preserve "the bank".

messystateofaffairs Dec 11, 2017 7:35 PM

Central Banks backstop moral hazard with potential unlimited fiat money.

Moral hazard destroys real economies that are the only thing that produce real wealth.

Central Banks try to patch up the mess with printed money. In this case the money only goes into wealthy club member hands where it inflates their assets not ours, as yet.

At some point the inflation will break loose, then the fiat money will become worthless. Then what had a central bank got?

Question is does the real economy move over to real specie money or does it let the central bank criminal con artists keep the assets they stole with the printed fiat (when it had value) and reset their fiat con game with another fiat replacement.

If I were a central banker I would blame the old fiat crash on the profligacy of my disposable government lackeys, clean up the profligacy with newly purposed gov lackeys, introduce a new fiat, and live happily ever after. If that don't work theres always a major war I could start. Goyim are gullible, G-d made them that way to serve us.

LotUnsold Dec 11, 2017 6:04 PM

Jesus, does Phoenix capital know anything? It only took to the second sentence to get to the first glaring mistake - and I don't remember being convinced by the first sentence either. This sort of understanding might do as an explanation to someone on work experience doing a day at a bond desk but it show ZeroInsight. The goal was to ill the holes in the balance sheets right across the sector, get free working capital from the government, pull of the biggest theft in finacial history and hand nearly every mortgage in the United States to the Federal reserve as collateral for the $2 Trillion that China was getting a little antsy about. In terms of what you think it was a catastophic Keynesian failure. In terms of what the bankers wanted it was a runaway success.

Start from there and work the rest out for yourself. You might want to look at the Fed balance sheet for the year leading up to 09/2008 to see what the real causes were.

Aireannpure LotUnsold Dec 11, 2017 9:29 PM

Thank you for clearly stating the monetary and fiscal obvious. You are not selling anything and have a "realistic" view. Stupid no's know limit's and governments are fully loaded. The civil war rages, real incomes and wages are the "real" CONTINUING cause. Not facing the housing/lending fiasco has made the whole house of cards much, much larger. Helicopter money NOW, it's Christmas for Christ's sake.

LotUnsold Aireannpure Dec 12, 2017 12:16 AM

OK fuckface, what was obvious in my post? It's in complete conradiction to what is being said inthe article, so how come it's so obvious yet passed them by? Please list the obvious things that you knew already.

The rest of your post is irrelevant to the topic, so I don't know why you included it. Are you are student? 3 years before you discover you have no value to anyone else?

Global Douche LotUnsold Dec 11, 2017 7:11 PM

They're correct in regard to the bonds being the Achilles Heel. If they fail, the shit finally hits the fan after all this time. Derivative exposure cracking due to higher interest rates will follow soon after. Frankly, I'm surprised the author left THAT out and the ramifications are even worse. The bonds being the lit fuse and the derivatives being the explosive stored in that orb.

LotUnsold Global Douche Dec 12, 2017 12:08 AM

So what do you think happens when a liability (a deposit) on the balance sheet of a Central bank gets written down to zero, but the asset (the money lent against it, and which has to be repaid) remains?

No one is going to worry about whether interest rates are going to ravage the value of pledges. These things will get held to redemption anyway. Everyone knows that. That's why they are at the Central bank rather than being marked to unicorns in the originating banks.

If you don't understand how a balance sheet works then you shouldn't be voicing an opinion. There was a time when people ZH knew what they were talking about. Now it's just someonewho has made some money in BTC but never been near a bond desk.

Albertarocks Dec 11, 2017 5:14 PM

Oh I get it now, the bankers have no way out. Maybe I should buy up a bunch of gold and silver and a bunch of solid companies who mine it? But wait, I'm already loaded up on those. In fact that's all I own, 40 mining stocks and an old car. And some silver, lots of silver. And a little bit of BTC. And I need a new pair of shoes but I'll be god damned if I'm gonna buy a pair... I want moar silver first, lol.

redmudhooch Dec 11, 2017 4:53 PM

(((Bankers))) deserve a bag of coal this Christmas.

or prison.

Bunch of Ebenezer Scrooges!

Global Douche redmudhooch Dec 11, 2017 7:13 PM

Other than taking advantage for the dip in Bitcoin he caused (thanks for the brief op), Jamie deserves Gitmo!

Paul Morphy Dec 11, 2017 4:50 PM

Good article, Graham.

Funn3r Dec 11, 2017 1:49 PM

Bitcoin exists to hold down the price of gold.

everything1 Dec 11, 2017 1:23 PM

Prepare how, I just keep plenty of money and au/ag in the SDB. I keep the AU and fiat right in front so it's easy to grab, I figure the AG is worthless at this point in time. Just the fact that AG coin/bar investment ballooned like it did is telling of what folks may suspect going forward, and then demand for it has fallen off the cliff, but not AU. Gold is not hard to see that the world cannot get enough of it anymore, especially the asian, they are no stranger to inflation -- or survival. Japan has a current issue with Kodokushi, the parent of single minded focus surrounding rapid economic grwoth making family ties no longer of any value. I live in a country where even my family wants my money, could care less if I live or die.

AGuy Dec 11, 2017 1:04 PM

"Now, you might argue that the same Central Bank could simply print more money to prop up the bond markets… but doing so would only increase inflation … which in turn would force bonds prices lower… inducing greater losses."

As far as bonds, CBs can just sit on them, even while raising rates. Hell, they can continue to buy them up while raising rates. If Bernanke had a clue, he should have started raising rates while buying up bonds via QE. It would have been much easier since QE would be providing liquidity while raising rates. We probably have nearly normalized rates by now.

Inflation isn't going to occur since everyone is buried in debt, there is no wage growth, and there is the demographics cliff. Credit growth is what is fueling the economy. Sooner or later higher rates and increase cost of servicing debt is going to but heads again and cause another inflation. But since rates are still near zero, its going to be much harder or much slower to recover since people will have more debt than the did back in 2008. and dropping rates from about 7% to 2% isnt going to have the same impact dropping rates from 3% to 2%.

That said the issue may be loss in confidence in currencies, but raise rates probably isn't going to fix that in any case. Restoring confidence is a usually a political matter (ie nixing the gov't deficit spending, cutting gov't spending a lowering regulation & taxes for the working class)

Money_for_Nothing Dec 11, 2017 1:04 PM

Bit coin is being used to rescue capital from bankrupt socialist regimes. Anyone that thinks bit coin can survive without being co-opted by governments is kidding themselves. The question is when and in what way.

hibou-Owl Money_for_Nothing Dec 11, 2017 1:26 PM

A previous ZH article stated 80% of the bitcoin market is Chinese, my guess as a result of tighter restrictions of many countries on forgein real estate ownership. The Chinese government have also stated their dislike of bitcoin..

Due to the ability of CB's to continue even short term the QE, this won't be a trigger to a sell off. I'd be looking at the debt ponzi schemes of China and fraud in valuations. This will have a bigger effect on currency

freedogger hibou-Owl Dec 11, 2017 5:29 PM

Take a good look who the code base committer's are, that's more relevant.

joego1 Dec 11, 2017 12:04 PM

In this world the only thing that will role when the credit dries up is convoys of military. Plan accordingly.

MusicIsYou Dec 11, 2017 11:54 AM

Smarter people sit on the equity in their home especially in questionable times. I could always trade my equity for something else if I really had to and it's also a buffer just in case there's another housing value crash.

slice MusicIsYou Dec 11, 2017 8:10 PM

"I could always trade my equity for something else if I really had to and it's also a buffer just in case there's another housing value crash."

That makes no sense to me. If the value of your house crashes, your equity crashes. Bye-bye "buffer".

It would make more sense to me to sell while "value" is high, sit and wait then snap up property when the "value" tanks, assuming your Magic 8 Ball is properly calibrated.

MusicIsYou Dec 11, 2017 11:43 AM

People have a lot of expensive low quality shit. That's why if you own a home you should be sitting on your equity and not getting home equity loans. They give you shitty cash that has no actual value and you have given them the equity in your home that does have actual value. And then like the idiots people are they pay the banks interest for the shit paper they traded you for the real value in your home. So in essence the bank took the equity and is holding the equity in your house and your dumbass is paying them interest to hold your equity.

doctor10 MusicIsYou Dec 12, 2017 5:08 AM

Traditional currencies really aren't worth all that much in a surveillance society -which essentially all big governments are today. All opportunity for arbitrage is stolen by the sociopsyopaths pre-occupied with going through everybodies bank accounts, real estate holdings, telephone and email records, tax returns and health records seeking "opportunity".

Not much business can be done profitably. At the end of the day its why interest rates -at least in 100% traceable accountable taxable regulatable and ultimately takable currencies are basically 0% give or take a few fractions of a percent-worldwide.

FWIW if you want to borrow BTC -at BitBond today interest rates can be 22%!!

"value" is anonymity and privacy in conduct, thought and action-one of the consequences of which is enhanced ability to keep the fruits of your own labor. It also is the ONLY means through which individual productivity can increase-and thus increase productivity across an entire nation.

Electronic/digital currencies actually fulfilling those needs will be the most valuable-there is yet to emerge one that clearly does so.

Ask East Germany and the Soviet Union exactly how well a surveillance society worked out during the 20th century. The 21st is no different in that regard-except that surveillance is cheaper and more intrusive and consequently more deleterious to society. It is a cancer

Funn3r MusicIsYou Dec 11, 2017 1:47 PM

If you got lots of equity but no money, and the refrigerator is empty, what do? Good luck at the convenience store with anything except fiat. That's why people pull equity.

Snaffew MusicIsYou Dec 11, 2017 11:56 AM

a home is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it...those $600k bungalows selling in california can be built for around 25k...most homes are wildly more expensive than their true intrinsic value, but everyone thinks their home is worth a fortune these days...as the system resets, school and property taxes on these homes will spike due to inflationary pressures while the housing market once again crashes and home values drop precipitously---a double whammmy to homeowners.

slice Snaffew Dec 11, 2017 7:59 PM

Your property may be worth what someone else tells you it is, but my home and property is worth what I say it is...and its not for sale.

When cities try to jack up property tax that no one can pay, what are they going to do? Foreclose on half the town and assume that liability that cannot be liquidated becuase no one is buying? Maybe, but I don't think so. I think they will just put a lien on it and wait for me and then for my wife to die.

I hear what you are saying, I just don't think that scenario will play the way it has in the past.

Apeon Snaffew Dec 11, 2017 2:34 PM

As the values drop--the taxes increase--to serve the retirees, and civil servants who will be dumped by the State somewhat later.

cheap land, no buldings, RV living--tents--raise your own food---sell the excess.

jmack Snaffew Dec 11, 2017 12:44 PM

They could be built for 25k in a normal state, like nevada, or utah, but not in california with thier regulatory regime. Thus it prices out poorer people, strains the middle class to the breaking point, and increases the wealth divide, between the rich and/or early adapters(people who owned properties since before the regulagtory regime was installed, and the rest.

jmack Snaffew Dec 11, 2017 12:44 PM

They could be built for 25k in a normal state, like nevada, or utah, but not in california with thier regulatory regime. Thus it prices out poorer people, strains the middle class to the breaking point, and increases the wealth divide, between the rich and/or early adapters(people who owned properties since before the regulagtory regime was installed, and the rest.

MusicIsYou Dec 11, 2017 11:33 AM

Yep it's like I've been saying: it's all financialization and no real value not to mention quality.

Honest Sam Dec 11, 2017 11:27 AM

Yay you! Your guys are right now feverishly putting together the stratagery for saving the Bitcoiners bacon. A more noble pursuit can hardly be imagined.

How much is that newsletter again? I'm seriously thinking of cashing in my 12% gain in the last two weeks in ETH and LTC, amassing over $120.00 in profit that is burning a hole in my head, and buying a Phoenix Capital expert's advice.

JibjeResearch Dec 11, 2017 11:21 AM

Get Cryptos, Property (housing and land to produce food), and fundamentally sound stock that is cheap.

Lots of lead.. you will need this....

Keep cash for daily used for 6 to 12 months.

Enjoy the rollercoaster

Gatto JibjeResearch Dec 11, 2017 3:16 PM

Housing and land will be a draining liability once property taxes begin to explode in a feeble attempt to fund federal, state and local pensions! Downsize your house and have as little real estate as possible! Housing will also collapse with rising interest rates, which are coming, as the rates rise, people will no longer be able to afford increasing monthly payments, this will cause real estate to tumble!

freedogger Gatto Dec 11, 2017 5:30 PM

Done, my vacation and city property is my van that I live out of. Otherwise its my small acreage far from the city.

new game freedogger Dec 12, 2017 4:53 AM

what if i didn't read any of this doom and gloom stuff. is that stupid to have my head in the sand?

or as freedogger is, van and acreage. hmmm, now to give away the computer, tv, and iphone.

any takers of manipulations that steal brains space for things far moar pertinate to lifes enjoyment?

Dame Ednas Possum JibjeResearch Dec 11, 2017 11:28 AM

The collapse process began the moment the money changers were handed the reigns of their corrupt wealth-transfer institutions.

Not Too Important Dame Ednas Possum Dec 11, 2017 1:00 PM

Charlemagne was responsible for that, and it's been all downhill since.

Now there's not much left to stripmine. The parasite has killed the host, and the Russians and Chinese aren't willing to be the next victims, offering protection/vaccination, but not without severe side-effects.

The final battle before the civilian nuke plants all disintegrate and take the planet with them. It's called the 'Wigner Effect', but it doesn't really matter, there's no stopping what's coming. The world's nuclear power plants are slowly dissolving into dust.

Hug your loved ones, make peace with your Creator. The beginning of the end is well underway.

atomic balm Not Too Important Dec 12, 2017 1:37 AM

I worry not

my name is

atomic balm

Honest Sam Dame Ednas Possum Dec 11, 2017 11:28 AM

AT first my eyes deceived me and I thought your moniker read, "Dame Ednas Pussy".

JibjeResearch Honest Sam Dec 11, 2017 1:04 PM

lolz ahaha ahahhaa..

dude... get yourself some sex dolls.... ahhhahahaha

Dame Ednas Possum Honest Sam Dec 11, 2017 11:31 AM

You say pussy... I say possum.

Pussy, possum... possum, pussy...

Let's call the whole thing off.

jeff montanye Dame Ednas Possum Dec 11, 2017 5:24 PM

well, the first four and the next fourteen comments on zerohedge about an article touting the imminence of serious inflation, the rising of interest rates, and the impotence of central banks to counter this do not mention gold or precious metals generally.

i believe this is the bell ringing to buy them and their miners. christmas 2017, mark it on your calendar.

Global Douche jeff montanye Dec 11, 2017 8:30 PM

December is traditionally the best month to buy. My few PM stocks have been badly monkey-hammered and the temptation to cash out some of my Bitcoins and back the truck up to mop up the street blood paper mess is really reading strong. The one thing keeping me away is the strength of the ongoing Ponzi in the bonds, although I'm seeing serious cracks in that massive egg.

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