/news/ - Good! Populists Sweep Italian National Elections, 5-Star Movement Big Winner

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Good! Populists Sweep Italian National Elections, 5-Star Movement Big Winner Reader 03/05/2018 (Mon) 16:01:43 Id: 1794b5 [Preview] No. 7094
In what is being called “the mother of all anti-establishment votes,” populist-nationalist parties hammered parties identified as being part of the old guard in Italian elections Sunday, radically altering Italy’s political landscape.
The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement emerged as the biggest party in both Houses of Parliament while the anti-immigration League has taken over from Berlusconi’s Forza Italia as the largest single party on the political right.
The results will not be final until Monday evening, but exit polls point to a remarkable shift in Italian politics away from conventional parties to anti-establishment groups looking to shake up business as usual. The real victors were Luigi di Maio of the 5-Star Movement and Matteo Salvini of the League, in an election that saw voter turnout at over 73 percent of the voter population, essentially debunking forecasts of low turnout due to supposed indifference and disillusionment.
Perhaps the most significant force in the new Italian politics was the southern vote, with Di Maio’s 5-Star group taking nearly 50 percent of the vote in the area comprising Sicily, Campania, Puglia, Basilicata, and Calabria. The 5-Star Movement ran on a Euroskeptic platform, along with promises of transparency and an end to political corruption and careerism.
On the right, Berlusconi’s insistence on coalition leadership essentially “backfired” according to Italian analyses. Sunday saw an important internal reconfiguration of powers within the center-right coalition, from a group dominated by Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party to a bloc centered on the League, which only recently morphed from a small regional party into a national contender.
While in total votes the center-right group only gained some 2 percent over the elections of 2013, the internal shift is far more dramatic. The new League moved from 4 percent to 18.6 percent of the national vote—a jump of more than 400 percent—while Forza Italia fell from 21.5 percent to 13.5 percent.
If ballot projections are confirmed, leadership of the center-right coalition will pass to Salvini, meaning that he will also emerge as the coalition’s candidate for prime minister, replacing Antonio Tajani, whom Berlusconi has favored.
https://archive.fo/Bv80I
Potential outcomes
Centre-right coalition (Forza Italia/Northern League): This had been touted as a likely option heading into the election. However, that’d been under the assumption that Forza Italia would outperform the Northern League. Since this has not been the case, serious questions have been raised over the possibility of this partnership being formed as Berlusconi (Forza Italia) is unlikely to want to play junior to the Northern League or back its leader Matteo Salvini as a candidate for PM. Therefore, some serious compromises would need to be made in order for this option to go-ahead.
Grand coalition (Forza Italia/Democratic Party): Heading into the election, this had been touted as the most likely outcome. However, the below-par performance by the Democratic Party makes this option mathematically difficult without involving the support of one of the more radical parties; an unlikely outcome. Furthermore, the poor performance of the Democratic Party makes the prospect of a centre-left coalition unviable.
Populist Government (Five Star/Northern League/Brothers of Italy): Such a coalition would depend on the willingness of the Five Star Movement which at this stage appears to be unlikely (despite a recent softening of their opposition to coalitions) given their anti-establishment views. Furthermore, despite being of the populist mould, the coalition would hold fairly wide-ranging views.
Repeat elections: Should all of the above options fail, Italian voters would be sent back to the voting booths in an attempt to break the deadlock. During this period, the current Gentiloni government would operate on a caretaker basis but the ongoing political uncertainty would likely act as a negative to Italian assets.
https://archive.fo/A4e21

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