After "Surreal" Feud Between Trump And Corker, "Tax Reform Is Dead. Full Stop": Cowen | Zero Hedge
Description: "Either Trump realizes that Corker can sink the remainder of the Trump/GOP legislative effort and is upset by that reality, or he didn’t/doesn’t know and just made it a reality. Either way, we see ZERO upside for the budget process/tax reform in this Twitter tantrum with the policy downside limit-down."
Keywords: Zero Hedge,Zerohedge,Finance,Economics,Markets,Politics,Analysis,Bob Corker,Donald Trump,John McCain,Morgan Stanley,Reality,Rex Tillerson,Twitter,White House
Date: 2017-10-09T00:00:00Z

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# After "Surreal" Feud Between Trump And Corker, "Tax Reform Is Dead. Full Stop": Cowen

by Tyler Durden
Oct 9, 2017 8:39 AM
0
SHARES

While Wall Street appears to have ignored the latest political spat within the Republican party over the weekend, in which Donald Trump lashed out at outgoing Senator Bob Corker, while the latter compared the White House to "daycare for adults", and later warned Trump may launch World War III, this particular feud involving the president may last longer than just the usual 24-hour news cycle, and could have dire consequences for the market, which in recent days has repriced a more than 60% probability (according to Goldman) that Trump's tax reform will pass.

Well, according to Cowen analyst Chris Krueger, not so fast.

In a note released this morning, Krueger writes that "tax euphoria may break this week, with the Senate budget back to zero-margin on vote as President Trump, Sen. Bob Corker feud." And without a budget, "tax is dead. Full stop," Krueger writes.

Cowen now sees the margin for passing a budget in the Senate as more challenging than in the House, plus "radically different" documents will have to be merged and passed again.

Passing FY 2018 Senate budget has "some eerie parallels" to health care, as no Democrats will vote for the budget; Sen. Rand Paul is expected to vote no because it doesn’t cut spending fast enough; Sen. John McCain also sounds like a no as it doesn’t repeal sequester, which disproportionately hits the Pentagon.

That means GOP can only afford one more defection, with Corker, a deficit hawk, engaging in "one of the more surreal public correspondence exchanges in recent memory" days after saying Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and White House Chief of Staff John Kelly help keep U.S. from chaos.

"Either Trump realizes that Corker can sink the remainder of the Trump/GOP legislative effort and is upset by that reality, or he didn’t/doesn’t know and just made it a reality. Either way, we see ZERO upside for the budget process/tax reform in this Twitter tantrum with the policy downside limit-down"

Maybe not: because in the premarket on Monday, bank stocks sensitive to potential tax cuts, are once again rising, suggesting all is well: JPMorgan up 0.3%, BofA +0.3%, Morgan Stanley +0.8%. Or perhaps this is just one more example of a market that is now so bored with incremental news flow which has zero impact on risk assets, that it is simply yet another "shock which no longer shocks." Then again, as so many Wall Street analysts have warned, it is only a matter of time before one shock does finally shock the S&P, unleashing the spire of shocks, built of over years and years of non-resolution, and merely swept away under the rug with trillions in central bank liquidity injections.

Stated simpler, if indeed Trump tax reform is dead - again - a sharp market turnaround may be imminent.

- Morgan Stanley
- White House
- Donald Trump
- Twitter
- Bob Corker
- Rex Tillerson
- John McCain
- Reality
- Twitter

- Printer-friendly version
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ejmoosa Oct 9, 2017 8:42 AM

I'm so tired of the career republicans all acting as if they rule the nation and they ARE the Party.

Vote out every incumbent and keep doing so until we have people that actually represent US.

cossack55 ejmoosa Oct 9, 2017 8:43 AM

Thats a lot of votin'!

_RRR_ cossack55 Oct 9, 2017 8:47 AM

since all voting is rigged I demand we use guns for last man standing

HopefulCynical _RRR_ Oct 9, 2017 8:49 AM

Corker needs his phone lines melted from angry contituents who want him to get over his goddamn butthurt and serve the will of the people. What a smarmy little parasite prick.

847328_3527 HopefulCynical Oct 9, 2017 8:55 AM

Toxic Coker needs to retire. he hates Americans almost as much as Graham and McShame.

tmosley 847328_3527 Oct 9, 2017 9:04 AM

Starting to wonder if these idiot peanutz in Washington will EVER understand that Trump has a personality type that suggests that you will ALWAYS get ahead by being nice to him, and you will ALWAYS lose when you insult him.

MagicHandPuppet tmosley Oct 9, 2017 9:15 AM

"I'm so butt-hurt and corrupt, out of pure spite, I'm not going to let ANYONE eat this nothing-burger."

~ Bob Corky

JRobby MagicHandPuppet Oct 9, 2017 9:34 AM

They seem to think the electorate doesn't see the kabuki?

Any excuse and they block the populist agenda.

That works until mid terms. The money that will be thrown at key seats they must maintain will be historic.

Thanks to Justice Roberts.

Well the electorate has had enough. Throw your money assholes.

lil dirtball JRobby Oct 9, 2017 9:40 AM

> They seem to think the electorate doesn't see the kabuki?

So, let's see ... they're smart enough to see it's all a show - but they'll show up and participate in another show election.

Doesn't sound very smart to me.

Dukes lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 9:54 AM

They were smart enough to not elect Hitlery

lil dirtball Dukes Oct 9, 2017 10:03 AM

It was on TV. Of course it was all real ... except for that 'lock her up' part. And the wall part. And the Obamacare part. And the tax 'reform' part. And the part about draining the swamp - prolly not too real there. And Hillary collapsing during the 9/11 ceremony. And ... .

Badsamm Dukes Oct 9, 2017 10:43 AM

Half were

tmosley lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 10:25 AM

Stupid people think smart things are stupid.

Yes, voting when all the candidates are controlled is pointless (but not harmful). But when there are uncontrolled candidates, voting is very important. This is a very surface level application of game theory. ANYONE should be able to figure it out. But even that appears to be beyond your capabilities.

booboo tmosley Oct 9, 2017 10:52 AM

Corker only speaks what Goldman puts in his mouth

Yukon Cornholius booboo Oct 9, 2017 11:36 AM

So does trump.

booboo Yukon Cornholius Oct 9, 2017 12:41 PM

Right, thats why they gave millions to Hitlery

lil dirtball tmosley Oct 9, 2017 11:14 AM

(((game theory)))

Right up there with (((string theory))). What other bullshit are you selling?

> ANYONE should be able to figure it out.

Except you, tmos. You'll have to shill harder.

'Uncontrolled candidates', indeed. Ha ha! BWAHahaha!

What a shill.

kalboking lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 12:42 PM

he's an isnreali . pay him no mind.

A Sentinel lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 1:57 PM

Not knowing string theory is fair enough. But Zh is smart. Game theory works and isn't too difficult.

Automatic Choke lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 1:06 PM

we still have pretense of elections. the fix goes in, and then they let the people vote, but usually irrelevant due to the fix. the only reason trump got in was because the entrenched who pre-elected HRC utterly failed to anticipate how much the electorate hated her. the fix wasn't big enough.

don't expect them to make that mistake twice.

caconhma JRobby Oct 9, 2017 9:44 AM

What else do you expect from an orange-faced buffoon, clown, and liar?

Yes, the US Congress is utterly corrupt but it is our political system. Consequently, it is the time to realize that a US President MUST work with the US Congress. Unfortunately, the American people have elected a fraud as our President. Granted, we did not have a choice!

Scar Bro caconhma Oct 9, 2017 10:39 AM

Doesnt have to work with them, all he has to do is control them by weakening the jews that control them. Is he doing that? No. He's too busy fighting low level clowns via twitter. Literally all he has to do is stop AIPAC lobbying and congress would be eating out of his hands. Too bad he works for AIPAC and all he does is divide republicans and democrats essentially to foment a civil war. While we fight eachother the jews are playing both sides and emptying the safe.

There is a smart play here, sadly I don't think that's what Trump has in mind AT ALL.

Yukon Cornholius Scar Bro Oct 9, 2017 11:40 AM

Trump loves AIPAC. Why would he try to control them? They are his family and business partners. Every word breathed into his ears com s directly from AIPAC. Get with it, bub.

johnofRandI caconhma Oct 9, 2017 11:08 AM

WHy? Why the F do we want them to work together... to pass laws??? To govern us??? WTF. Stop, look and realize that the rally is not just tRump, it is due to these sterds NOT having passed a law or regulation in over 18 months. Is it worth it to lose tax reform, for now, and to get Corker drained from the swamp. YES

Endgame Napoleon JRobby Oct 9, 2017 10:49 AM

I am not so sure that populists see this tax cut for the rich, with more child-tax-credit welfare checks up to $6,269 for some of the poor and no provisions to make sure that tax windfalls are not used to offshore more jobs and to hire more illegal aliens, DACAs, 1-million-per-year legal immigrants, H1B and H2B visa holders, as the MAGA agenda. In fact, some populists see right through it and are are saying “no MAGA / no money.”

sessinpo 847328_3527 Oct 9, 2017 11:47 AM
847328_352

Toxic Coker needs to retire. he hates Americans almost as much as Graham and McShame.

---

I'm sure you know he retiring at the endof his term so he won't be running again for re election next year. Ironically, Trump asked him not to retire. His tetirement can't come soon enough. But more than likely, Tennessee will get another douchebag

OneStinkyDinky HopefulCynical Oct 9, 2017 8:56 AM

Less reform ... tax cuts for the wealthy more like it ... DOA regardless ... next

Anasteus OneStinkyDinky Oct 9, 2017 9:31 AM

Hm, it seems like Trump is being punched to the face constantly this time. Zionists are still strong enough to place obstacles in his way.

caconhma Anasteus Oct 9, 2017 9:45 AM

Trump is a Zionist!

kalboking Anasteus Oct 9, 2017 12:39 PM

Trumptard. How to orange turds taste?

GUS100CORRINA OneStinkyDinky Oct 9, 2017 9:35 AM

After "Surreal" Feud Between Trump And Corker, "Tax Reform Is Dead. Full Stop": Cowen

My response: The LEGISLATIVE BODIES of the USA are OUT OF CONTROL and OUT OF ORDER.

DISGUSTED!!!

Implied Violins GUS100CORRINA Oct 9, 2017 1:58 PM

These parasitic bastards *want* an excuse to blow up the markets. This, the debt ceiling, or woar with the Norks, ISIS, Turkey, Russia, China etc. - all set up as black swans to set off the economic collapse.

Question is, which one will they use? One of the above, or ALL of them? Because it's coming, one way or another.

boattrash HopefulCynical Oct 9, 2017 8:57 AM

Phone lines were melted down prior to the ACA vote...need I say more?

FedGov. Shut it the fuck down.

Pasadena Phil HopefulCynical Oct 9, 2017 9:18 AM

Melting phones down in DV plus faxes and e-mails is how I got started in all of this almost 15 years ago. It's how we stopped the Kennedy-McCain-Bush amnesty bill in 2006 just before obliterating the GOP in the elections and then did the same to the renamed Flake ....amnesty bill in 2007. We came to be known the Army of Davids. We were not organized so there was no way to contain us but we grew into becoming the Tea Party. It works.

I can't wait until next year. An epic tsunami will slam into the establishment that will transform the world.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/10/08/league-extraordinary-...

This won't be the usual state-by-state campaign by mediocre challengers with no money, no plan and no endorsements. This will be quality challengers riding a tidal wave of momentum. The Dems are more scared of this than is the GOP.

HopefulCynical Pasadena Phil Oct 9, 2017 9:48 AM

I remember the way Tom Daschle's Senate race became nationalized and he got BTFO. You're correct; it does work. But we've got to be careful we're not simply singing, "Meet the new boss..." when we put up challengers. Look at Rubio, cmpaigned as Tea Party, turned into Swamp Rat after he won.

Pasadena Phil HopefulCynical Oct 9, 2017 10:01 AM

That's the risk you always take. But this time, the challengers aren't as vulnerable to the establishment's usual tactics. That populist tsunami changes everything. When the polymorphic liars like Rubio stick their fingers in the air to see what direction the wind is blowing, it's blowing in the opposite direction this time. I doubt they will even run.

The Wizard HopefulCynical Oct 9, 2017 12:20 PM

Corker is a perfect example of the people being elected into office. The people who voted him into office ought to have the voting privilege removed. The Deep State has used the media and educational system to totally dumb down the electorate

Mark Urbo HopefulCynical Oct 9, 2017 1:42 PM

Totally agree !!!

+1000 upvotes

Trump is just exposing that these RINO's & NeverTrumpers have no intention of passing his agenda (America's agenda) and are only butthurt over "their day being done in Dc....."

Davidduke2000 _RRR_ Oct 9, 2017 9:05 AM

Maybe you're on to something, maybe a pistol duel between republicans and democrats, one on one and we'll see the real voting for once.

Gaius Frakkin' ... cossack55 Oct 9, 2017 8:49 AM

Tic toc, moderates, tic toc...

ejmoosa cossack55 Oct 9, 2017 9:15 AM

I'll vote against mine-you vote against yours!!!

Deal?

Rapunzal cossack55 Oct 9, 2017 11:26 AM

Our political system is in its final throws. It's dead, killed by the NWO and their minions. They pretend that there are political reasons for this or that. The fact is all the new laws are made to enrich the parasitic elites and to curtail our rights.
To kill Obamacare was never a goal of any politician, it's just a slogan to get elected.
To change the unfair tax laws was never a goal just a lip service.

It's all a kabuki theater, our enslavement is well underway.

lil dirtball ejmoosa Oct 9, 2017 8:49 AM

> Vote out every incumbent and keep doing so until we have people that actually represent US.

Ha ha! I laugh at your continued misplaced loyalty to a system that fucks you every day that you wake up. You will wake up and engage it again tomorrow - and get fucked again.

Ha ha, voting ZHombie! Ha ha!

Otherwise, you must be a young'un.

lil dirtball lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 8:51 AM

What happened to the videos of the guy smashing things in his garage with a baseball bat ranting about the .gov? Are they still on YT?

Kim Jong-Il lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 10:04 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k4xPUZRdC0

lil dirtball Kim Jong-Il Oct 9, 2017 11:18 AM

+1 Ta!

FreeShitter lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 8:53 AM

People who vote and think it matters should be medically treated for insanity.

tmosley FreeShitter Oct 9, 2017 9:08 AM

I guess I'll be flying over the cuckoo's nest, because I voted for Trump, and he has made more positive change than any president in my lifetime, in my parents' lifetimes, my grandparents' lifetimes, and I suspect in my great grandparents's lifetimes. And it hasn't even been a year yet.

No, things are going to get continuously better as the people vote out these money-controlled politicians and vote in nationalists that can work with Trump.

lil dirtball tmosley Oct 9, 2017 9:35 AM

>he has made more positive change than any president in my lifetime, in my parents' lifetimes, my grandparents' lifetimes, and I suspect in my great grandparents's lifetimes

You're still fulla shit.

Bes lil dirtball Oct 9, 2017 9:39 AM

nevermind him

he OD

on orange crush

and has gone full retard

remember, never go full trumptard

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