Bernd
04/30/2019 (Tue) 21:39:14
No.25414
del
Guaidó left the airbase and joined a new round of massive street demonstrations across Caracas and the country. That's exactly how it has been for months, with the sole difference that he now has some policemen and soldiers marching with the demonstrators.
Maduro fortified the presidential palace, shut off the metro and the media and set his hounds loose. They suceeded in getting dozens wounded and compelled some oppositionists to seek refuge in the Brazilian and Chilean embassies.
Armored vehicles rammed protesters right in front of the airbase where oppositionist troops are stationed and they had no reaction. So far no attempt has been made to militarily take over key infrastructure and government buildings and only sporadic exchanges of fire have taken place.
In short, a violent takeover of power hasn't yet been tried; Venezuela is still stuck at the protest phase. The only new fact is that sections of the military and police have openly defected to the opposition, forcing Maduro to increasingly rely on his political militias and paramilitaries aswell as foreign mercenaries.
I believe Guaidó is trying to accelerate/escalate the crisis and force the hand of his allies and enemies, hoping that Maduro will go too far in his crackdown and/or that America will provide more support. This is a risky strategy, as one possible outcome is a successful crackdown with no American response. So far the regime has given out its usual ration of violence and Trump is threatening Cuba.
I started the day smiling and wondering how long it'll take until Maduro is on a one-way flight to Moscow, but now it seems his fall is still far away. Bolsonaro's military advisers have voiced bleak predictions and said Guaidó doesn't have enough support in the Armed Forces.