Tables are turning again, Erdogan has made sure the final chapters of the war are not a placid mopping up but an electrifying experience full of plot twists. Rebels were already breaching the gates of Kafranbel when an army counterattack contained their breach from the west. And despite news of massive losses from bombed convoys, Tiger forces massed in the M5 again and retook Saraqib. It took some time, rebels released videos from inside the city whilst pro-regime sources were already declaring it taken and the city was probably divided for a while but already taken by now. A Turkish drone was seen in the background as Syrian TV broadcasted from Saraqib. Some sources give the whole M5 as cleared while the live map still shows it cut to the north. Suheil himself was photographed in the city and Russian MP arrived, making it now off-limits to Erdogan.

So trying to make sense of this:
Erdogan has no long-term thinking for Syria, he's just bumbling from one crisis to another and improvising as he goes. When the army's offensive curbstomped the rebels, he panicked and tried to salvage the situation with his observation posts and materiel deliveries to the rebels. It was laughably ineffective and caused an escalation, but now he does seem to be following a logic. When the posts inevitably caused casualties, he chose to keep escalating. Soon he was taking dozens of casualties and bombing Syria en masse with drones and artillery. This had the practical effect of threatening the Syrian army's helicopter and bomber support and dramatically raising its attrition, with large losses of men and vehicles including tanks. In this new environment rebels managed to counterattack and as the army shuffled men across fronts several convoys were hit. Erdogan's endgame right now is to raise the temperature so much Idlib becomes an international crisis, bringing great powers to negotiate a truce. This will give at least a few more months of life for rebels in Idlib. He'll meet Putin in Moscow soon. Another arm of his strategy is his opening of the border with Europe for Syrian refugees, which puts pressure on Merkel and Macron to take a stand and hopefully back a ceasefire.
With the prospect of a ceasefire, both sides try to assert themselves on the ground as fast as possible. Assad went for Saraqib as the most valuable target and its takeover demonstrates that, in face of Turkish bombing he has the manpower and the willingness to sacrifice it, and most importantly, that despite this higher attrition the rebels are still an inferior fighting force and will fold wherever Tiger Forces and other elite troops are concentrated and Russian airstrikes fall. Putin is still giving his support, but notably hasn't raised it to compensate Erdogan's, refusing an expansion of his mission in Syria. It seems he only intervened to get a cheap victory, and is reluctant to take a bigger commitment. Erdogan may have found his weak spot. Furthermore, Turkey matters to Russia a lot more than Assad's takeover of Idlib. Russia doesn't even need Idlib, it already has Assad solidly in power and bases in the coast. A weaker Assad is in fact a more loyal ally.

>>34735
>The question is how much the govt managed to pacify the south.
The population was against him in the first place and largely remains so. Reconciliation with rebels requires trust, which is in short supply in the dire wartime conditions; a few of the reconciled still found themselves arrested and tortured. In a former warzone a lot of civilians already had firearms and in some cases reconciled rebels kept theirs. The regime's client networks will take a long time to restore. However, rebellious thoughts were kept at bay by a general feeling that the regime had won and was strong. Recent battlefield defeats did away with this feeling so the angriest rebels thought they had a shot.