Interesting thought from Wyatt of DPA:
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=wK48NyQL3Wc
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wK48NyQL3Wc [Embed]
He says Ukraine can continue with strategic strikes indefinitely. Ukraine reduced manpower losses, by relying drones more and more to hold the front - this tactics works because how Russia fights this war. So manpower doesn't matter much anymore. So even if Russia occupies whole Donbas, they can't just end the conflict.
He doesn't say this, but since Ukraine's economic and production base isn't really in Ukraine but elsewhere in Europe, Russia can't destroy their factories much. And what they destroy, Ukraine can rebuild. So it's a constant knocking down again and again.
So yeah, let's say Russia conquers the rest of Donetsk this winter the latest. Then what? They could say: hey we reached our goal we want to end the war. But Kiev can say no. And they do easier since manpower losses are lower.
There are many other things in play, so this is a lopsided approach (for example there are equipment losses too).
Russia really has to innovate to intercept Ukrainian drones and rockets.