Excerpting from the JPM note (available to professional subs in the usual place), Feroli wrote that the consumer price index (CPI) likely increased 0.8% in May, above the 0.7% exp. and up from 0.3% in April. This jump will be due to a strong increase in energy prices (4.6%) — as gasoline prices increased noticeably again that month — along with continued solid gains for food prices (0.7%) and the core index (0.47%). With this forecast, JPM expects year-ago CPI inflation to hold at 8.3% between April and May, in other words, unchanged from last month and also above the Wall Street consensus estimate of 8.2%.
Offsetting JPM's headline gloom, the bank does expect some moderation in the core index, which it sees easing from 6.2% Y/Y in April to 5.8% Y/Y, below the 5.9% Wall Street consensus.