Неплохой анализ всего происходящего в общем, переводить лень, думаю большинство тут английский понимают достаточно. Часть 1/2


> It's mid-2022. Ukraine has a massive advantage in numbers, forcing Russia to abandon the northern front due to insufficient personnel to cover such a large frontline.

> Late 2022. Russia still doesn't have enough manpower to hold the frontline and instead relies on sheer firepower. They move most of their forces to Kherson.

> Ukraine achieves a breakthrough in Balakliya.

> The West’s advice on a Zaporizhzhia offensive: A breakthrough is possible, but warns Ukraine that the Russians would crush them if they succeed (Wow, USA military genius!)

> Russia withdraws from Kherson to protect Zaporizhzhia and prevent a breakthrough to Crimea.

> The West asks Ukraine to sit out the rest of 2022, promising to deliver mountains of equipment for a spring counteroffensive.

> Bakhmut holds back the Russian invaders for half a year. But in the end, it falls. All this is happening as Russia mobilizes enough infantry to plug the gaps on the eastern and southern fronts, redeploying all units to sit within Ukraine, completely neglecting the northern border.