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DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Video: You’re a fed too???
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CA ET Nerd @earlyvotedata
2026 Senate Map Prediction 9/27 (Long Post Warning):
As stated before, this is my initial Senate prediction map as I see the races going on Nov 3.
There is A LOT of data that is going to come out over the next month and please do note that these ratings can and will change.
First, an explanation for what toss up, tilt, lean, likely and Safe (I am not doing a solid rating) mean. Toss up means exactly that, a razor edge race that could go either way. Tilt means I believe a candidate has the edge by 1-2% margin. Lean means I believe a candidate has the edge by a 2-5.9% margin. Likely means 6-10% and Safe means over 10%.
I am doing it this way because this makes sense to me in regards to odds of a candidate winning, I know other places do it different with their margins and ratings.
Second, below is a beginning explanation of each of the major races in the Senate this year. I'll talk about some other lower tier races but the main focus will be on the big ones (that's what everyone cares about anyway!).
So here we go:
Alaska: I'll start with one that will have my R readers probably upset as I currently have it as a Toss Up.
The main reason is RCV. You all know I hate it and it makes things much more unpredictable. Add the other Sullivan in there along with another R candidate and it's messy.
I'm starting at a toss up until I see more data with early voting and some polling, but overall just know that if I had to choose a winner it would be Sullivan (the real one).
Florida: An easy call here: Safe R. Registration gains for Rs and Ashley Moody got more votes than DeSantis did in 2022. She is running against a very poor opponent. She will win by a good amount, I do feel confident the data in early voting (which Florida gets a lot of) will back this up.
Georgia: I have this Lean D for Ossoff. I expect Ossoff to win, even with Jackson tearing it up on the Gov side. I do not see Ossoff winning by 8% like some other people have, more like 4-5%, and that is mainly due to the Gov race. There will be ticket splitters but not that many, Jackson will help Collins here do better than he otherwise would have.
Iowa: I have this at Lean R. If Hinson was not the GOP candidate, we would be having a very different conversation here. I think she is closer to 5% margin as of right now, but the Gov race being closer has a similar effect like in GA (but opposite for the parties) in my opinion.