>>194294, >>194295, >>194296, >>194297, >>194298, >>194299, >>194300, >>194301, >>194302, >>194303, >>194304, >>194305, >>194306, >>194307, >>194308, >>194309, >>194310, >>194311, >>194312, >>194313, >>194314, >>194315, >>194316, >>194317, >>194318, >>194319, >>194320, >>194321, >>194322, >>194323, >>194324
North Carolina: I have this as Lean D for Cooper. I am not in the camp that believes Cooper will dominate at an 8% margin in a state that is very inelastic with Federal races. Whatley is not a super start but he's also not anything other than a solid generic R. He should be able to hold his own.
Early voting will be extremely informative here, so be on the watch for when in person early voting starts in a few weeks. Cooper probably wins by 3-4% but that can change depending on who turns out in early voting.
New Hampshire: I have it Tilt D for Pappas for two reasons. First, is due to the overall environment this midterm. Sununu will keep this close due to name recognition, R registrations in the state, and Ayotte destroying in the Gov race.
Second, New Hampshire has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010....who was Ayotte. I think Sununu can get close but advantage to Pappas for now.
Ohio: I have it as Tilt R for Husted as of right now. I am expecting to probably move this to Lean R at some point but need to see how early voting goes. Ohio also usually closes for the R as we get towards the end of October.
For right now, mail requests are lower than expected and especially in areas were Democrats would want to have it be better. We need to wait to see how in person early voting goes once it starts.
South Carolina: This is my other mess with people rating, just with the other side now. Likely R. Don't even try it Democrats, save your money you need it.
Texas: Everything is bigger in Texas, so we save the best for last (totally not anything to do with the fact I went in alphabetical order here...).
I have this Tilt R for Paxton. Fundamentals, voting history, Talarico being worse than Beto (Paxton is arguably worse than Cruz too), and now advertising all shows this slowly moving towards Paxton sneaking across the finish line. He will likely have Abbott to thank, and most definitely not have Cornyn to thank.
Early voting will be important here as well, it will give us a sense of if polling is missing those rural areas where Rs win with Assad level margins. Or the other way around.
*Please excuse any typos or errors, if you see any let me know and I'll make a note to fix them. Thank you!
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2104307472546906189

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Largely concur with this.
Remember all early voting analysis is based on very few data points. NC and VA are the only states we have a picture of, and VA is dismal. NC much better (but very few votes in so far)
In-person early voting, when it starts, will swing hard to blue if the map is less favorable than the one below.