>>194294, >>194295, >>194296, >>194297, >>194298, >>194299, >>194300, >>194301, >>194302, >>194303, >>194304, >>194305, >>194306, >>194307, >>194308, >>194309, >>194310, >>194311, >>194312, >>194313, >>194314, >>194315, >>194316, >>194317, >>194318, >>194319, >>194320, >>194321, >>194322, >>194323, >>194324, >>194325, >>194326, >>194327 DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Yup that’s why I don’t consider polling numbers at all when calculating independent split. People angry at one party will self-identify as independent, and the DSA success (ironically) shows how angry Democrats are at their own establishment - it’s been bottled up for a while, just like our side was during the Bush + Obama years. I’ve historically found geographical split, the more localized the better, a much more accurate way to predict independent split. Parent Post: Chris @chriswithans Polls show Democrats are maxed out. That’s why I believe they are biased towards Democrats. It’s literally impossible that 96 to 99% of registered voter Democrats are going to vote in these November midterm elections. It’s also impossible that they will vote for Democrats by 97-99% with 0.000% voting third party or Republican. You almost never see recall vote margins being at 2024 levels, which shows you the true partisanship of the Independents who are responding to polls. If you see a poll that’s even on party ID with a large number of independents, and then you see a recall vote of like Harris +4 in a Trump +2 state, it just means the independents are actually Democrats in that polling sample. https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2104007890151641407
DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Yup IPEV will tell the whole story and whether we’re observing with youth and Black drop-off is real. Parent Post: Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD @TonerousHyus My three theories right now 1) Local enthusiasm. Dems in Ohio have capitulated to it being an R state now. Ala Florida 2022 2) black voters don’t give one single crap about Sherrod Brown 3) IPEV gonna go crazy on Oct 6 https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2104004016267284878