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Parent Post:
Rich Baris THE PEOPLE'S PUNDIT @Peoples_Pundit
What a lot of these people do not understand—and frankly it is misleading a lot of people—is that parties dictate voting behavior by method, ie. in-person early, absentee/mail-in, Election Day, etc.
Vote method is effectively a party strategy to train voter behavior.
If you have not tracked these trends in behavior by party, age, race, education, geography, etc, and are not familiar with them by various states, then you will not be able to objectively and accurately assess early vote, which as @SeanTrende has correctly noted for more than a decade, is already a Herculean task with a shit load of assumptions to make.
We ALL should expect Republicans to do better than they did in almost all states save for a few versus the 2022 cycle. Why? Because outside Arizona, California, and Florida—and even THEY still had Election Day vote culture, especially for the GOP—the party did NOT have any real early vote infrastructure or behavioral push in its culture. It was all "Game Day" voting culture, this behavior.
Truth be told, most states to include Pennsylvania are going to look better than 2022, and this cycle will be uniquely challenging to use prior midterm cycles as comparisons.
I know, I worked on and studied Pennsylvania. Republicans could sleep through this early vote period and we would still expect the state to look better than it did in 2022.
North Carolina, same thing.
Truth be told, the pattern this year that has been most clear is that Republicans underperform vs. 2024, but talks about how much better it generally is than 2022, then everyone hopes and prays the Election Day vote comes in heavy, and it does not.
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2105140708172816784

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - 🫡 Don’t miss this Torch special!
Quoted Post:
Glenn Beck @glennbeck
If you’ve seen one of my chalkboard specials, what we’re about to expose takes it to a whole new level. We partnered with @DataRepublican to map out the entire DSA machine, and what we uncovered is a multi-national operation designed to influence American elections from the inside out.