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DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - The "unskewing" phenomenon of 2012 was caused by Republicans possessing wide leads with independents in polls. These would be plugged into early vote numbers and these would be ... wrong.
As it turned out, Romney wasn't winning among registered independents, the poll "independents" were simply angry Republicans who self-identified as independents.
And now you've got the top left-leaning podcaster (Hasan Piker) calling to gulag all the establishment Democrats.
A bunch of Democratic early voting analysts fell flat on their face celebrating leads in independent early voting as well.
PA is seeing stronger turnout among rural whites than in 2022 in mail ballots, which is counter-intuitive to polling conventional wisdom.
Parent Post:
Chris @chriswithans
Final Times/Siena poll of 2024 showed Harris and Trump tied because they had them hard-deadlocked with their own partisans but with slightly more Republicans than Democrats, which erased Kamala Harris' small independent lead. Trump ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points if you include RFK (this line below is just 2-way). The partisan crosstabs tell you the whole story. They suggested a deeply polarized electorate, and that's what you got. Despite everything from Biden and Harris and Trump over the 4 years between November 2020 and 2024, there was little crossover either way. Very few Republicans for Harris or Democrats for Trump. In fact, those were probably just ancestral GOP and Dem voters who always vote that way.
Today, despite a D+8.5 generic ballot, Siena shows the same generic ballot partisan crosstabs, with near-even Party by ID presence by both major parties. Siena today shows Independents voting mostly for Democrats, but they also show that those Independents mostly Democrats. Siena's poll shows an near perfect match between vote intent and self-reported partisanship. And that's just because of response rates.
We don't know for sure how much the electorate-by-partisanship has changed since 2024, but the past trend has been against Democrats since 2016, per Pew. Dem Party ID + Lean was 52, 53, 50, 47 (2022), then 48 (2026). So even if Dems get back to 2018 somehow, they're at 53% of the electorate. But that was when Pew had them +2 over Republicans on Party ID. Now Siena has them even on Party ID.
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2105032624737829099

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Ouch. Didn't realize the criteria was "earns less than high school graduates." Ouch.
Parent Post:
Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil
How many degree programs are going to be cut thanks to the new regulations?