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DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - EV 𝕏 really going out on a limb here with the prediction that CA is Safe Dem 🤣🤣
Parent Post:
Five Star @Five_Starrr
CALIFORNIA 2026 GUBERNATORIAL PROJECTION
Nov 2024 Registration- 🔵+4,716.872
Registration Today- 🔵+4,658,425
Net Change since 2024- 🔴+58,447
2024 Election- 🔵 Harris +20.1%
Key Race: Governor- Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R)
*Long Post Warning/Analysis Inside*
Over the next month until the midterms, I will be projecting Governor/Senate Races based off of a combination of registration trends, historical data, mail/early voting trends, and candidate strengths. These predictions will be independent of polling. So we will see how this version of projecting races compares against the struggling polling industry.
Registration Trends- The GOP has added a net of almost 58,447 registrations since the 2024 election. However, the Dems have outregistered the GOP in the most recent monthly update, meaning the Dems have some registration momentum behind them. The Dems outnumber the GOP by 4.65 million in a state that Harris won by 20%, a very steep hill to climb for Hilton.
Historical Data- No GOP candidate has won a statewide gubernatorial race since 2006 when Arnold Schwarzenegger last pulled off the feat. The closest gubernatorial election since 2006 was D+13, so that does not bode well for Hilton and it would take a herculean effort for him to even lose by that margin.
EV Trends- Not much to note in California. Mail votes have just been sent out and return data is not yet available.
Candidate Strengths- Neither candidate has an incumbency advantage. Hilton is running a spirited campaign to “give him a chance” after years of failed Democrat governance. He wants to cut taxes and focus on decreasing the waste of government programs. Becerra is running as another big government Democrat like Gavin Newsom. He has a scandal from when he was the head of the Department of Health and Human Services when he placed migrant children with unsafe sponsors. In a state like California, this is unlikely to leave a big dent in his support since it is a “Vote Blue No Matter Who” type of state.
Bottom Line- The Democrat advantage is just too big to overcome. Hilton would need to win indies by a large margin and would also need a decent percentage of Democrats to cross over in order to be competitive in a D+ 4.65 million state like California. Are Californians tired of Democrat governance of the state? My analysis points to a resounding no and a landslide victory for Becerra. However, as a silver lining, Hilton is running a spirited campaign that will help get the GOP base out and salvage some down ballot races that would’ve otherwise been lost.