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DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Wait a minute - D+4 is the *overall* electorate shift, including FL's registration advantage since 2024?
That is confusing given you're doing a straight-off subtraction of 2024 Harris/Trump margins (Trump 13.1 -> Trump 9).
Parent Post:
Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini
Yes mail so far is similar to 2024, we have it as 2 points more pro-Harris but GOP has been cutting that down pretty consistently for a week now.
D+4 is our current projected for the final electorate shift (which by the way isn't very good for Dems and would doom Nixon). I think she has 0 path if that was right.
On the one hand 2024 FL turnout was so devastating for Democrats they would want a +6 or +7 electorate shift (more than the country) but on the other hand the FL GOP is firing on all cylinders and netted another 500k in registration just in the last 2 years... we have that canceling out which leads to Trump+9 electorate with Moody favored by 9.2 right now
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2108733200348414299

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - "I am not praying for the world but for those whom you have given me, for they are yours."
Parent Post:
Mark Mitchell, Honest Pollster @honestpollster
Jesus loves Hasan and an innocent baby equally.
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2108731067913969986

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Makes sense - not questioning that FL mail-ins are overwhelmingly blue, but questioning whether they're that overwhelmingly blue in relation to 2024 mail-ins. Are you basing that D+4 across all FL votes in general, or isolating in terms of mail-ins?