Economic Schedule for week of Oct 30th
The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, October vehicle sales, and the September trade deficit. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to raise rates 75 bp ("jumbo"-rate hike as all the Fin MSM put it-pissing against the wind and when they back off at the Dec meeting-likely to 50bp the Reverse Repos will explode higher (and those been permanently over $2T daily since June this year)))
The Atlanta FED (Kanggzz Bostic) updates it's hilarious GDPNOW forecast on Tuesday 1101 last estimate at 3.1% (and raised a few weeks ago over 2 full % points) so it has "space" to drop into when they reality of all these shitty housing #s can't be ignored-they have done this 2x this year-and it is not reflected in it's current chart and completely. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
----- Monday, Oct 31st -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 47.2
10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. This is the last regional Fed survey for October.
----- Tuesday, Nov 1st -----
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for September.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for 49.9, down from 50.9.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for 0.5% decrease in spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for sales of 14.3 million SAAR, up from 13.5 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
----- Wednesday, Nov 2nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index...(which may show a slight increase with the known coming rate hike and we'll see if the refinance index can move below the 2000 lows-been stuck dhere and likely to continue to drop as rates are now over 7% now (on avg))
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, down from 208,000 in September.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise rates 75bp at this meeting......Y-A-W-N.....
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement-stonks will sky shortly after he starts to speak after they drop first
----- Thursday, Nov 3rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the deficit to be $72.1 billion in September, from $67.4 billion in August.
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 55.5 from 56.7.
----- Friday, Nov 4th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%. There were 263,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%. These are always a great source of hilarityhttps://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/schedule-for-week-of-october-30-2022.html>and say buh-bye to Janet Yellen at the US Treasury as she will likely be replaced by Larry Summers shortly after the election-she had some pretty funny shit earlier this week saying they (UST) were gonna buy back 20y bonds..well their are about $1.2-4T of those yet the account balance that the Treasury haz is just over $600B so good luck trying to shift all that shit to the short-end while all the foreign owners of longer dated bonds front-run the BoJ buying Yen (by selling those) and when the latest TIC data is released- it will show about -$150B sold for just the BoJ Yen interventions and that will be fear pron'd ..but it won't be yer problem soon either way.
Have fun at the rest home where you should have been 15 years ago