Anyone following the Tigray War? Last time it was on the news the government lost Dessie and it keeps losing more and more. It'd still take a while for the Tigrayans and Oromo to reach the capital, though, unless there's a sudden collapse as in Afghanistan. Tigrayans are pushing south on a salient and have their left and right flanks exposed. The left flank, towards Afar, seems irrelevant because of topography and low population density, but the right flank faces the Amhara and an offensive against the salient could be dangerous. There's also the possibility of a new Eritrean offensive against the Tigrayan heartland; that depends on the politics of Eritrean involvement. Also notable is that land connection between the capital and the Amhara heartland is apparently cut off by Oromo insurgents. From their performance at war and in the past decades, the Tigrayans seem to have the most disciplined troops and most cohesive home front.

I'm really wondering about the geopolitics of this war. It seems Egypt and Sudan oppose the Ethiopian government.