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Syria thread - Putin edition Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 02:19:43 [Preview] No. 44602
Daraa insurgency flared up a lot.

>>44601
> We host more than %50 of worldd refugees it will eventually bite Europe bad. When shit hits the fan blame your politicians for buying out erdoğan instead of encouraging their permanent return in syria
But there can only be a permanent refugee solution when the government recovers control of the whole country, and Erdogan delayed that from happening last year when he interrupted the successful offensive in Idlib.


Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 04:38:13 [Preview] No.44603 del
>But there can only be a permanent refugee solution when the government recovers control of the whole country
The Free Syrian Government, yes.


Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 11:02:50 [Preview] No.44604 del
(301.57 KB 828x624 07.25-map.png)
>>44603
Any side but Assad is irrelevant for a while now (picrel was made in 2018...) in the topic of reforming the country and state. Hence Turkey's intervention stretched out the conflict (on the other hand this might give a bargaining chip to those who oppose Assad rule, maybe they can get concessions).

>>44601
What is the composition of the refugees? Where they came from? How much are from Syria, and other countries?
As the migrant crisis emerged in 2015 the Frontex started to publish papers about the migrants, where and how they enter and their place of origin. As time passed the ratio of Syrians fall, but then the Frontex got lazy and published these things more sporadically and stopped to follow. Maybe gonna try and dig into their documents on their site.

>>44602
>Daraa insurgency flared up a lot.
And the SAA artillery activity south of the M4 at Idlib looks systematic shelling. Are they planning a push finally to the highway, but in return in the South rebels started diversions to hold down some govt forces?


Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 11:45:59 [Preview] No.44605 del
(758.89 KB 1091x654 2021-07-30-donbass.png)
Well I guess here's one screenshot of Donbass. Dunno how much "ceasefire violations" happen normally.
Also check out that news about a new toy. What could that be?


Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 20:58:15 [Preview] No.44608 del
(152.23 KB 1000x604 w66XX.jpg)
>>44605
>Also check out that news about a new toy. What could that be?

Some kind of typical jamming station.


Dutch bernd Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 21:58:17 [Preview] No.44610 del
(296.21 KB 1280x891 inside.png)
>>44605
I actually know people from Ukraine now. So that picture worries me a lil bit. And makes me really :( face


Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 23:40:37 [Preview] No.44623 del
>>44602
We didnt precenr anything in idlib. If assad tooknit over we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there. Half of the country is governed by ypg do you think idlib is the worst threat for regime?

Assad despite what he says dont want his syrians back. He is glad he Got rid of them.


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 06:56:30 [Preview] No.44625 del
>>44623
I messed it up I wrote it while half asleep.

>precenr
prevent*

>tooknit
took it*


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 08:03:42 [Preview] No.44626 del
>>44623
>We didnt precenr anything in idlib.
Turkish "observation posts" were placed all over the border and the inside in the way of the advancing SAA forces. And then Turkish convoys entering blocked further offensive. Assad and pals would have got back Idlib in 2019 or when was this (fugg 2020 just flew away).
>we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there
Is this an ongoing process in the region still on the hand of the rebels?
>Half of the country is governed by ypg
Is it really? The SAA had to move in to meet the Turkish forces when they established the security zone inside Syria on the land nominally in the hand of the YPG and co. The US backing of the Kurds was lowered considerable when their protection was handed over to Assad essentially (I dunno where I saved those genious Trump tweets about the event, so requesting from any Bernds). So YPG doesn't matter that much, and while I do not debate they still have considerable amount of autonomy over stuff, I question the extent of it.


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 09:45:47 [Preview] No.44627 del
>>44626
Currently there is 3-4 million settled refugees in idlib.

>Syria on the land nominally in the hand of the YPG and co
No, YPG is on process to create a legitimate state and they are controlling oil fiels also they have access to euphrates river. So YPG is not dependent on Assad, in fact I could claim otherwise if we take account the fact Russia is playing with both sides and YPG has full American support, the situation is much worse for Assad.

>So YPG doesn't matter that much
Yes that's the reason why think tanks and the western media glorifies them to the point of brainwashing the western people. You don't continue to bet on a horse which you think it will lose.

Anyway if you think we are in idlib for landgrab you are out of your mind. I would agree on this one though, if we didnt have a populist incompetent leader we could reach an agreement with Assad give him what he wanted (which all other parties would besides HDP even from start of the civil war) in return we would let him use idlib as retarded islamist containment zone. If he want to get rid of those people eventually he would have to resettle them in preferably irrelevant shithole somewhere in Syria.


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 09:51:41 [Preview] No.44628 del
>>44617
>...maybe look into moving if things get bad enough Turkeybernd?
If I will have to move which means millions will as well. Which means I would be treated with no dignity. I didn't born to live as slave in europe. Europe is in no position to enrich millions of refugees with luxuries and europe feels existensial threat just because they take 10.000 refugees.

Europeans are not humanitarian as much as you think, it's just you guys afford to be seem that way because of your media power and prospered lifestyle. I can feel the murderous itch of euros as if they are waiting to reunlock nazi mode. It would be safe for a few refugees but not for millions.


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 10:21:34 [Preview] No.44629 del
>>44627
>we could reach an agreement with Assad give him what he wanted (which all other parties would besides HDP even from start of the civil war) in return we would let him use idlib as retarded islamist containment zone.

Isn't this actually happened now?


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 11:12:20 [Preview] No.44631 del
>>44629
if that was the case assad wouldnt attack idlib neither Turkey would try to push even more.


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 13:18:49 [Preview] No.44632 del
(381.56 KB 1123x798 refuggees-2018.png)
>>44627
>Currently there is 3-4 million settled refugees in idlib.
That's a lot of people. How is the situation in Turkey?
How many refugee camps are there? Or there's a big one?
The YPGs river access means they can use it as a water source, or as a transportation infrastructure, or both, and others (like natural border, a defense line, etc)?
>if you think we are in idlib for landgrab
Noone implied that.


(For no particular reason I wanted to post that Turkish pepe sending Merkelmen to Grease from Izmir, but can't find it. Gonna post picrel instead. I highly doubt anyone knows the number of people who entered the EU and never left since 2015.)
>I can feel the murderous itch of euros as if they are waiting to reunlock nazi mode
If we can believe in the events of the Euro Cup we have a big division in the population along the lines of BLM and LGBT, and whatever made up issue the media feeds to us. There won't be any united front when the refugee/migrant question comes up again (sometimes after people get bored by the covid hysteria).

>>44631
>Assad wouldnt attack idlib
For now it seems they strike on the area south of M4 which road would be a border, and patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces. Or something like that was the deal couple of years ago. Things could have changed, ofc.


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 13:52:14 [Preview] No.44635 del
>>44632
>How is the situation in Turkey?
bad

>How many refugee camps are there? Or there's a big one?
I dont know the numbers but they are starting to become majority in one city and a few counties. There is 6 million of them in Turkey and 3-4 million in idlib. They are freely roaming in the cities, crime rates has been increased. And since we have no border security if one does get killed by syrians or afghans they are to be deported but they can freely come back.

We cant protest or rebel because we know Erdoğan is arming them and wont hesitate to use against us. In a civil war EU and USA would freely intervene and bomb the shit all of us. They would freely bomb our military, our reseources and our cities and thanks to their media power everyone would believe what they would say. Obviouslt they would try to weaken us as much as possible so we wont ever dream to be independent. Russia would do the same if they can.

So the extremely idiotic slogans like "just revolt like you can toplle erdogan!!" just gives us a sad cringe. And lately lots of fake news spreading by "totally independent and unbiased" foreign news agencies mostly to provoke civil unrest or worse.

>The YPGs river access means they can use it as a water source, or as a transportation infrastructure, or both, and others (like natural border, a defense line, etc)?
Both, plus, oil without water means nothing at all. We have both of the most important water source in the entire region. If you take a look at the kurds claim in Turkey on the map, you will see why south east anatolia wants to be seperated from us and certain states are supporting it via "independent" NGOs.


Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 23:12:44 [Preview] No.44638 del
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>>44631
>if that was the case assad wouldnt attack idlib neither Turkey would try to push even more.

Considering that border is stable for long time, looks like there is no real attacks from both sides. Local skirmishes and obligatory shelling is just a part and parcel (c) of modern local conflicts. Like Donbass situation, where that happens everyday but no real action is planned from both sides.

I guess these attacks are more like opportunistic action of local forces. Local militias try to get something with quiet approval from top, with chance that other side would not intervene heavily. Everyone need to constantly prove that they can enforce their claims, because all agreements are nothing without backing power. Like in that story where Russian mercenaries tried to grab some oil-related place with idea that "these Americans are cowards", but it didn't work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

>>44635
>They are freely roaming in the cities, crime rates has been increased.

Why there aren't in camps like in some European countries?


Bernd 08/01/2021 (Sun) 03:01:43 [Preview] No.44640 del
>>44623
>If assad tooknit over we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there
So how is the process of setting those syrians/kurds back in rebel Idlib going? According to what you were saying it sounds like more people are pouring into turkey, not less. What is the plan? Prop them up militarily as a kind of buffer statelet where to dump the war refugees and kurds later?
>Assad despite what he says dont want his syrians back. He is glad he Got rid of them.
Your view seems to be that the syrian government wants its territory back but not the rebels, preferring them to flee into neighbor countries rather than resettle them elsewhere. But I have also read that the rebels are not a majority and they just hold local population hostage because they control natural resources, production, and distribution channels, and the foreign aid. This would mean that syria would also want most of the people there. Why couldn't this be negotiated with Syria? Has Assad hinted that he won't negotiate with Turkey the return of refugees?
>Half of the country is governed by ypg
They cannot last without their US patrons

>>44635
>because we know Erdoğan is arming them and wont hesitate to use against us
The syrian rebel mercenaries? Is it still happening through the "humanitarian aid" border, as that man Peker >>44391 said?
What about some of his other claims?
yewtu.be/user/pekersedsat
>>44638
>ger-tr.jpg
kek


Bernd 08/02/2021 (Mon) 12:26:02 [Preview] No.44651 del
>Your view seems to be that the syrian government wants its territory back but not the rebels, preferring them to flee into neighbor countries rather than resettle them elsewhere. But I have also read that the rebels are not a majority and they just hold local population hostage because they control natural resources, production, and distribution channels, and the foreign aid.
Those aren't mutually exclusive, most of Idlib's population might well dislike both the government and whichever specific rebel group lords over them. Idlib in particular was a high unrest province from the beginning and has only received more anti-government people since then. Refugees are also more likely to dislike the government, as it is rebel-controlled neighborhoods which got depopulated the most by the fighting (rebels don't have as much artillery, or else it'd be equal).
That said, even if the government doesn't want the refugees back/they don't want to return, ending the war early is still better than dragging it out. Once the war is deemed over, conditions will improve, the government might do internal changes, international pressure will relax and more refugees will want to return.


Bernd 08/06/2021 (Fri) 20:05:11 [Preview] No.44677 del
Back to US, back to US, back to Afghanistan.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/4/how-do-afghanistan-forces-and-taliban-compare
>The Taliban now controls about half of Afghanistan’s districts
Who wanna bet, no stopping there?

But here's the comparison, tl;dr version:
1. personnel (estimates)
Afghan national security forces (including the army, special forces, air force, police, and intelligence) total strength: 307 000
From this the combat forces: 180 000
Taliban: 55-85 000
2. funding (further estimates)
Afghan military: $5-6 billion
Taliban: $300 million to $1,5 billion
3. weapons and equipment (this one listed in a silly way)
Afghan military: Western made weapons, assault rifles, armoured vehicles, artillery, surveillance drones, night-vision goggles, air force (with attack helicopters)
Taliban: mainly small arms and light weapons, RPGs, mortars, various small rockets, some AA and AT capabilities, suicide bombers, IEDs, captured Western made weapons and equipment
4. cohesion and morale (how they measured this?)
Afghan military: suffered high casualties, corruption, desertions, now foreign troops departed, poor planning and leadership, low morale
Taliban: internal rifts, but greater cohesion, religious zeal

Considering the Taliban has the initiative and pushes on - for now - unstoppable, this does not look good for the govt. the US left behind.

Also, I found this:
https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan


Bernd 08/13/2021 (Fri) 17:52:36 [Preview] No.44734 del
The Afghan government left behind by the US is fucked. Taliban moves forward quick, they took over Kandahar (2nd largest city) today. Even Hungarian media says they are unstoppable.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/13/afghanistan-taliban-herat-kandahar-kabul-cities-live-updates

These maps I got from here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/12/10-maps-to-understand-afghanistan-interactive


Bernd 08/13/2021 (Fri) 17:54:41 [Preview] No.44735 del
Fugg, all the maps I dl'd is broken. Gonna see what I can do about it.


Bernd 08/13/2021 (Fri) 21:26:14 [Preview] No.44741 del
Reading reports on Twitter that Taliban are in Maidan Shar – 30km from Kabul, and on the road from Kabul to Hazarajat.
They'll be in Kabul by tomorrow if they want so.


Bernd 08/14/2021 (Sat) 06:20:56 [Preview] No.44742 del
>>44741
I bet some units are already inside.


Bernd 08/14/2021 (Sat) 23:17:50 [Preview] No.44747 del
According to internet rumours/propaganda:
>some taliban soldiers fell in a confrontation
>a handful (supposedly) of the Kabul forces desecrated the bodies
>shortly afterwards a taliban offensive takes and secures the territory
>the whole company (supposedly) that mutilated the fallen is executed in retaliation
Also, yanks instructing its embassy to destroy information and evacuate, so doesn't seem like they have much hope in Kabul holding for long
Western feminists squealing like sows. Here's hoping they get BTFO, literally if necessary.
On the other hand, I wish this doesn't end up spilling and destabilising the whole region (this might have been an important goal of the US withdrawal: create chaos for China and the ex-USSR stans)
Several weeks ago an occupied bus exploded in Pakistan killing several Pakistanis and Chinese. Nobody claimed responsibility for the attack, but Islamabad believes it was by TTP (the Pakistani Taliban, not directly connected to the Afghan Taliban) facilitated by anti-Pakistan/anti-China influences (India and Kabul).
Couple of days ago another occupied bus exploded in Russia. One died in hospital and a few are injured. Unknown so far if accident or attack


Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 06:58:06 [Preview] No.44748 del
>>44747
That event might be happened. Might be instigated, but could be normal thing to do around there.
>I wish this doesn't end up spilling and destabilising the whole region
If the Taliban takes the country over quick, there will be no destabilization. It seems they gained free hand to do whatever, so establishing their order shouldn't take long. Both (taking actions freely and the short timeframe) means the region will be stable again. The war there was a destabilization factor. Now outer meddling stops, and the inner forces have the ability to resolve their problems. Maybe it will be brutal, but resolving the problems and judging, labeling the taken actions are two different things.
Tl;dr Taliban takeover will lead to stabilization.
>bus exploded in Pakistan
>bus exploded in Russia
What their foreign policy will be, or how their victory will influence the action of others, I dunno.
Also these could be provocations again.


Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:24:46 [Preview] No.44749 del
>>44742
Aaand... they're in Kabul.
Ghani has surrendered, they already held a press conference. Said they'll only do executions and stonings if such is the court rulings. And that women will be allowed to leave house.


Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:25:24 [Preview] No.44750 del
(42.04 KB 660x525 E80rJP4WYAEEHam.jpeg)
Looks familiar?


Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:34:07 [Preview] No.44751 del
>>44749
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/15/taliban-continues-advances-captures-key-city-of-jalalabad
Just wow. The whole thing on behalf of NATO was just handing over the power to the Taliban. No way NATO HQ and political leadership was that misinformed they thought the govt. left behind can stand on its feet.

>>44750
Nod really. Did not follow. Context?


Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:42:16 [Preview] No.44752 del
>>44750
Oh you meant as Vietnam reference.


Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 14:09:32 [Preview] No.44753 del
>Ghani left Kabul for Tajikistan
t. Al Jazeera.

>>44750
>Helicopters land at the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban advanced on the Afghan capital. [Rahmat Gul/AP Photo]


Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 21:05:25 [Preview] No.44754 del
>Taliban enters Afghan presidential palace after Ghani flees
>“The former Afghan president has left the nation,” Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, said in a video on his Facebook page.
>Facebook page
Hilarious.

>>44747
I'm still thinking what could it mean internationally, geopolitically.
For example Iran gains a safer neighbour - in case of US meddling, I dunno Talibs means a different threat to them or not. Maybe Afghanistan will be a land route between Iran and China.
And there's the opium and its trade ofc.
Some expect a wave of refugees. Taliban hold all the border crossings, probably only those can leave whom they allow. Read Pakistan closed her borders.


Bernd 08/16/2021 (Mon) 08:07:59 [Preview] No.44755 del
>>44754
Russia diplomat will hold a talk with the Taliban tomorrow, based on which Russia will decide whether or not to recognise them as the legitimate government.
Taliban already travelled to China earlier to establish ties.
There's currently a ruckus in India on how they should respond. There's the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, which means that Afghans of Dharmic faith who have been in India before the end of 2014 were automatically eligible for citizenship, but as far as I know there's no plan to actively take any more in yet. Some are implying India should just let everyone in so that they can brag to the wect how progressive and liberal they are. But that opens another question of how to airlift them over Pakistan.
Iran and Taliban used to be enemies (theological differences lol) but I'm assuming Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.


Bernd 08/16/2021 (Mon) 16:00:03 [Preview] No.44758 del
>>44755
>whether or not to recognise them as the legitimate government.
Noone else at the steering wheel. Even West can huff and puff now, unless prepared to move back in. They don't have to acknowledge the Taliban ofc, but throwing straight in the arms of Russia-China (and even Iran) isn't a good move. Maybe changing policy and building a relationship that leaves channels open would be better.
>Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.
In that we cannot be sure. Previously I said NATO HQ and political leadership had to know the the Afghan govt. will fail quick. But to be honest Western leadership also can be: 1. stupid; 2. incompetent; 3. stupid and incompetent.


Bernd 08/17/2021 (Tue) 01:45:23 [Preview] No.44760 del
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>>44754
Pretty nice composition with that traditional painting in the back, they look similar
>For example Iran gains a safer neighbour - in case of US meddling
At least short-medium term situation should be clearly better than having more US bases next door
>Maybe Afghanistan will be a land route between Iran and China.
yes, if Afghanistan can be estabilised quickly enough then maybe they can be offered some role in China's new "silk road" economic area that we hear from time to time. But the obvious problem for China, though, is the effects of militant islamism on Xinjiang and uygurs and the flame-fanning that comes from the western media. One might think they should be able to deal with it economically (rather than militarily, I suppose they won't be eager to saddle themselves with war), but the problem is that the Taliban is not very centralised, so it's uncertain whether their authorities can keep whatever bilateral deal they sign, even if they do so in good faith
>And there's the opium and its trade ofc.
Interestingly, the recent opium boom happened during the occupation. Maybe they will burn them all again as they once did.
>Pakistan closed her borders.
Pakistan has a porous border with Afghanistan. There are even some pockets over which Islamabad doesn't have good control and are de-facto dominated by TTP chiefs.
I do think they preferred the Taliban over the US puppet government, since they seem to have provided them some help or at least refuge. The obvious reasons are being islamic vs. liberal-secular, and the fact that India was invested in the Kabul government (for the same religious reason), so Pakistan had go against it

I think it all comes down to whether Taliban will settle down and try to maintain a unified policy between all their different chieftains
>>44758
Still surprising how quickly it all crumbled. If the US knew then they deliberately misled as part of some secret deal. But those crazy and pathetic scenes at the airport make me suspect that they were just winging it as they went along


Bernd 08/17/2021 (Tue) 12:49:19 [Preview] No.44774 del
>>44755
>Iran and Taliban used to be enemies (theological differences lol) but I'm assuming Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.
Also depends on how pragmatic the Taliban will be. If they alienate the Hazara too much, Iran may retaliate. That will depend on how they'll try to build their power structure. There's no unifying Afghan nationalism and they chiefly represent a subset of Pashtuns. For prolonged stability they'll have to establish alliances with elites of other ethnicities and a modus vivendi with their populations, or their power will fall apart.
It'll be interesting to watch how they choose to run the country now. How much of the old regime's administrative structure, most of which stands intact, will they absorb into theirs, and how will this change the character of the new regime? Will they enforce a more moderate sharia than what they did in the 90s? How much development will they pursue, given that it can threaten the permanence of the social order they prize?

I suppose their neighbors will want a stable and moderate, or stable and isolationist, regime, while America will back the more fundamentalist and outward-looking factions to destabilize the region. Those will always exist because it's in the nature of the Taliban's ideology, but will be powerful only under certain conditions.


Bernd 08/17/2021 (Tue) 16:31:09 [Preview] No.44778 del
Taliban have so far:

- allowed to have a woman interview them on Kabul TV:
>In this program, host Beheshta Arghand interviews Mawlawi Abdulhaq Hemad, a close member of the Taliban’s media team, about Kabul’s situation and house-to-house searches in the city.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=4B0ryE3i7R8 [Embed]

- visited a Shi'a ashura (mourning) event in a Hazara neighbourhood:
https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1427636075430825998

They held a presser (the first one), I'm copying what BBC says were the main points on their live ticker:
>The Taliban's first news conference since taking control of Afghanistan covered many topics. Here are the main takeaways:

> The group are actively working on forming a government and that it "will be announced after completion" said spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid
> He said "women are going to be very active within our society" and that they would be allowed to work "within the frameworks of our Islamic laws", but didn't ellaborate on what that means in practice
> When asked about contractors and translators who have worked with foreign powers, Mujahid said that "nobody is going to be treated with revenge" and that the group had "pardoned everybody for the benefit of stability or peace in Afghanistan"
> He said the Taliban promised to respect the role of the press and pledged that "private media can continue to be free and independent"
> But he warned that "the media should not work against us"
> When asked about the risk of the country housing al-Qaeda fighters or other extremists, Mujahid said that "Afghanistan's soil is not going to be used against anybody"
> He also claimed that the Taliban had planned to halt their advance "at the gates of Kabul so the transition process could be completed smoothly", but were forced to enter the city "to ensure the security of the residents"
I think I seen someone comment they also said they are committed to once again end opium production.

So yeah, I think they're trying to be pragmatic


Bernd 08/18/2021 (Wed) 19:56:49 [Preview] No.44792 del
Fugg, too many articles, too little time to read. Gonna reflect on what was posted here by Bernd.


Bernd 08/19/2021 (Thu) 13:29:04 [Preview] No.44793 del
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>>44760
>Pretty nice composition with that traditional painting in the back, they look similar
They do understand theatrics.
>recent opium boom happened during the occupation
Some say opium trade was in the Taliban's hand. Even Al Jazeera article here >>44677 says they get the funding - partially - from "narcotics industry".
>Maybe they will burn them all again as they once did.
I also did hear they did that, or against the opium trade. It would be nice to see clear in this question as well. Since you mentioned their lack of central control, and high self-sufficiency of local leaders could be some profits from it, while others taking measures against it.

>>44774
>There's no unifying Afghan nationalism
Afghanistan is also a very "diverse" country with many ethnicities and languages. But the intermarriages are extensive, the individuals have other ties than their ethnicity, and Islam is Universalist. So while nationalism can't join people, Islam could (liek everyone there is Muslim), state and country is just a unit of government, and not an expression of the nation's sovereignty.
>How much development will they pursue, given that it can threaten the permanence of the social order they prize?
>It'll be interesting to watch
I concur.

>>44776
Thant needs a closer look on my part.

>>44778
It seems they make an effort to look agreeable and use the media to build sympathy and acceptance towards them.


Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 07:27:50 [Preview] No.44796 del
I'm wondering about the "fleeing Afghans", how many of them want to leave due to the danger of their security, and how many of them are would be "economic migrants" how just want comfy life on Western gibsmedats.


Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 13:00:24 [Preview] No.44797 del
>>44796
the "muh poor desperate fleeing afghans" is msm distraction from the usg's pure clown-world chaotic retreat, and also leftist catnip so that absolute women-like morons can cathartically feel long-distance commiseration for stupid brownies at the other side of the planet, and so that slightly less idiotic morons such as yourself can "wonder" whether they are "refugees" or yet another weight for the aging welfare states in the west that will be their destination plus another injection of foreign dna for the populations they will further dilute
taliban has already claimed they will not persecute the collaborationist (and why the fuck should we give a shit if they are being honest or not, obviously the puppet government was less favored than taliban since nobody seems to have lifted a finger to prevent its collapse)
and look at this: one of the "poor desperate fleeing afghans", so desperate that they tried to cling to the fuselage of that us airplane, was a young member of the national football team crushed by the retreating landing gear he was hanging on to, his remains fell to the ground when the wheels were again deployed for landing (some parts of his body anyway)
remarks:
1- nobody will dispute that somebody who goes to such lengths is a prime example of "desperate fleeing afghans"
2- tell me what risk of reprisal from taliban can be expected for a national team football player, bullshit
3- rumors were apparently spread in kabul saying that anyone who managed to get onto a plane was to be treated as "refugee" (and therefore could expect a comfy welfare life in the west), which likely drove most the crowds to the airport
4- we don't want migrants whose iq bell curve spans that of fellows like this one
5- the people who one might reasonably expect some kind of reprisal against are the officials of the fleeing government (if they don't agree to some political/economic deal) and those rats were the very first to escape the sinking ship, some in their own comfortable and not-at-all-crowded-except-for-the-wads-of-cash private airplanes (it's very telling how after fleeing like rats some of these absolute POS took to twatter to excuse themselves by saying that they instead "were pushed inside the plane" by other rats anxious to gtfo, and writing not in whatever arabic language but in english ffs)

there is zero need to accept these so-called "fleeing afghans", there's nothing in it for us (nothing good that is), only the empire needs to save face and appear "merciful" and "good" after 20 years of fucking around in shitholistan and the clownery of the withdrawal

also, here's another aspect for you to include in your "wondering": terrorist cells are once again being flown to the west, invited by our own inept and traitorous governments


Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 15:45:58 [Preview] No.44806 del
>>44797
The implication that noone is in danger from the Taliban really shows that you are the one with impaired mental capacity. Literally none of these posts gives anything to the discussion.


Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 17:08:20 [Preview] No.44807 del
>>44806
>The implication that noone is in danger from the Taliban
that implication lives in very spacious accommodations inside your empty mind
i said explicitly who can be most reasonably expected to be "in danger" and furthermore i rhetorically questioned whether we should give a fuck either way (answer: no)
>gives anything to the discussion.
it "gave" so much to the discussion, that it apparently gave you nothing to discuss, except for the mentioned incorrect implication


Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 17:49:50 [Preview] No.44808 del
>>44807
Your turbo-pol one bit thinking and the way how it manifests in your writing makes your walls of texts unreadable. Besides your condescending remarks and insults shows how weightless what you write. Call your therapist and take your meds.


Bernd 08/21/2021 (Sat) 07:52:25 [Preview] No.44814 del
>>44776
Read Chartbook #29.
The US policy was absolute failure. They pumped the money in ("modernization of the economy" = inflating corruption and creating a stratum in the Afghan society whom well being depends on the handouts) which did nothing to gain the support of the wider population, but deepened poverty and social division pushing everyone but their corrupt puppets in the open arms of the Taliban.
Ghani and pals had no chance (rules of Machiavelli applies).


Bernd 08/21/2021 (Sat) 20:13:49 [Preview] No.44815 del
>>44776
I suggest checking the recent "chartbooks", this also gives couple of good insights:
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-13-financing-afghanistans
I suspect as Ghani and Ahmady were planted they trusted Afghanistan true ally with the safekeeping of the gold.
Also in previous chartbooks Tooze says that the Afghans got a taste for phones which singlehandedly raised the import of electricity. So their import consists chiefly of phones and electricity. I bet there are other consumer products of modern societies are imported, which essentially are just junk, but sucked up large portion of the foreign aid. So imports can be safely lowered since most of that are non-essentials.
They're still gonna have problems with covering food to prevent mass starvation (due to the mentioned droughts), but the problems of the Talibans economically aren't that serious. Unless Afghans can't live without their phones.


Bernd 08/22/2021 (Sun) 20:20:02 [Preview] No.44820 del
While the Taliban took over Afghanistan, some resistance still continues here and there. This article is about Ahmad Massoud and his Tajik fighters in the Panjshir Valley.
https://www.rt.com/news/532764-afghanistan-panjshir-northern-alliance/
Some more info about the place and the situation:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/reflections-on-events-in-afghanistan-6/


Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 07:52:28 [Preview] No.44844 del
Was an attack against the airport in Kabul where US is doing their evacuation. Soldiers and civilians died. It seems the Delta variant of ISIS ISIS-K executed bombing attacks, mostly with IEDs. The Taliban secures a larger perimeter around the airport, or the ways leading in, so the US troops can do their job (who also secures an inner perimeter at the airport). They are continuing the evacuation, not that they have a choice in the matter.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/27/us-braces-for-more-possible-attacks-after-deadly-kabul-blasts

Biden addressed the nation yesterday (starts about 22:30, goes to ~51:00):
https://tube.cadence.moe/watch?v=9tBR5cMoiOA
https://youtube.com/watch?v=9tBR5cMoiOA [Embed]
Some strong words, some clear thoughts, and some scrambled gibberish.
Why those journalists(male) sound like de-masculated homos and/or eunuchs?
>if osama bin laden as well as al qaeda had chosen to launch an attack when they left saudi arabia out of yemen, did we have ever gone to afghanistan
Since they attacked from Saudi Arabia via Yemen, it's just logical to attack Afghanistan (yes, yes they went hiding there into the underground bunker - where bin Laden was killed by US special forces and then discarded into the ocean during the flight back for some mysterious reason).

Ah found a shorter version I think. Just Biden and the journos:
https://tube.cadence.moe/watch?v=D8UFWCswVIg


Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 13:29:26 [Preview] No.44845 del
Turkey again in talks about running the airport in Kabul, this time in along with the Taliban. For now it's just talks, but maybe one step in the international recognition of the Taliban led state.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/27/turkey-holds-first-talks-with-the-taliban-in-kabul

Three links due to one event, Putin - Xi Jinping phone call:
https://tass.com/politics/1329999
https://tass.com/politics/1329981
https://tass.com/politics/1329959
Essentially the whole thing was about the cooperation of Russia and China, one major point was Afghanistan ofc. Nothing concrete.
>"The leaders also agreed to engage in more bilateral contacts and closer coordination primarily through diplomatic agencies," the Kremlin added.
Wow, fucking nothing.
One detail I did not hear much about yet (probably because I don't and can't follow everything), is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which includes - besides the two powers - the *stans in Central Asia, India and Pakistan. Number of "observer states"... uhh... oberves(?) this organizationm whatever the fuck this means, I assume it's some kind of entry, hallway, waiting room. One of them is Afhganistan since 2012. Maybe keeping this status is another brick in the international recognition of the Taliban state. And maybe a point for Russia and Chine where they can involve Afghanistan, and weave it into the region and the plans.


Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 17:18:35 [Preview] No.44846 del
(65.05 KB 622x417 trump-biden.jpg)
>>44844

It is surprising how 78 years old grandpa still can talk and answer the questions relatively adequate.

>>44845
>Russia

Fun fact - Taliban is marked as "banned in Russian Federation", so every media must put asterisk and state it in any article. It is interesting how they will avoid it in future when official diplomatic relations would be established. Removing organization from that extremist list is a unique thing, and must be at least partially explained.

ISIS is also in that list, so recent news were like "ISIS (forbidden extremist organization) are made terror act against Taliban (forbidden extremist organization)".

>*stans in Central Asia

Are nothing, so they have no real option to do anything about Taliban anyway.


Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 17:39:48 [Preview] No.44847 del
>>44846
He has his embarrassing moments but in general he seems functioning ok. Besides I suspect that some most notably: the "salute the marines" videos are edits.

>state it in any article
Heh, I noticed that in the TACC reports.
>must be at least partially explained
Where a will is, a way will be found.
>that list
Can that be read somewhere?
>Are nothing, so they have no real option to do anything
Is it an issue?
Or liek the Taliban is too strong willed and independent to be puppets in that Shanghai Coop?


Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 18:45:04 [Preview] No.44848 del
>>44847
>>that list
>Can that be read somewhere?

There are several lists, but I forgot what lists require specific mark, and what not. Only in Russian though:

http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/npd/terror.htm
https://minjust.gov.ru/ru/documents/7822/

There is also a list of "forbidden materials" that is pretty fun to read, because sometimes it contains things like "file New Video 2.mp4" or such (our judges aren't really bright people): https://minjust.gov.ru/ru/extremist-materials/

>Or liek the Taliban is too strong willed and independent to be puppets in that Shanghai Coop?

Taliban surely will conform to Chinese opinion, and take in account Russian and Pakistani ones. It is hard to predict who will be more influential there though. Maybe even USA/EU will try to influence it.
At least this bombing already paints Taliban as victims of terror who needs help, not confrontation.


Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 01:17:31 [Preview] No.44850 del
>>44845
>When all else fails press Turkey button. Fixes everything!
Why does Turkey get stuck being the foreign invasion endgame boss? Turkey should string the negotiations along to get the highest offer for services and subcontract it all out to someone else. I hear Iran has way too many idle Syrian mercenaries. Or maybe ...?
Nah. Now is the time to hand the tarmac over to some Chinese paratroopers and call it a day.


Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 14:40:45 [Preview] No.44851 del
>>44848
First link seems to me as if were the bans by federal institutions (the supreme court and military courts), while the second are more local and might be not bounding in other oblasts or even settlements.
I scrolled down and saw the items in the list numbers 100. Wow, I thought, round 100? Then I saw it goes on 52 pages. Throw a couple in DeepL, "Life of Mehmet al-Ali" and such titles sounding like biographies and "history of Rus". I see the reason behind some ban, but I also consider them pointless, typically the Islamic material. In and about Russia there are organizations and groups that could cause real trouble for the Russian authorities and can take lives of unrelated civilians too - it's not liek Hungary where essentially in that sense everyone is harmless so no biggie if stuff doesn't get banned - but these groups won't give a shit if such works are on a ban list, or gain even more elan and support if people gets harassed because of those works.
>it contains things like "file New Video 2.mp4" or such (our judges aren't really bright people)
Judges are similar to any other laborer. They do their shift, go shopping, go home, watch telly, sleep, then rinse and repeat. Many things fall way off to their horizon of knowledge, and what they know the world beyond work is highly depends on the individual.
Oh I noticed some descriptive notes like "the speech that starts with [AB line] and ends with the words of [XYZ words]", so sometimes they try to make it more precise, probably due to the lack of title or something.

>Maybe even USA/EU will try to influence it.
The agreement to keep the airport's vicinity safe, and the talks with Turkey show that the relation between the Taliban and NATO isn't closed and can evolve to anything. So yeah, who knows.
>At least this bombing already paints Taliban as victims of terror who needs help, not confrontation.
I concur, if media wants that they can make a friendly spin on the narration of the situation in Afghanistan. Here left-liberal media is still barking at them, but Fidesz-media is more friendly, and now Macron is pointing at ISIS as the great danger.


Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 14:47:56 [Preview] No.44852 del
>>44850
I'm not sure what you mean. But Turkey has ambitions an grabs any chance to show she's relevant, and gain more prestige by acting that everything is her business.
I think a parallel can be drawn between the interwar Italy and contemporary Turkey to some extent. Both with great imperial past reaching close and far creating a new empire from bits and pieces.


Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 16:07:27 [Preview] No.44854 del
>>44852
Turks are right to seize opportunity, and they have plenty of opportunities to pursue. In my view Afghanistan is no opportunity for anything involving personal involvement by Turkey. I think they're being played.
On the other hand, it could be an opportunity but only if Turkey plays the other players into wading in so the Turks can better concentrate on all the other stuff going on right around them.


Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 17:41:09 [Preview] No.44855 del
>>44854
For now it's just talks.
Turkey with promoting pan-Turanism try to reach into Central Asia towards the *stans (plus the Turkic minorities of Afghanistan). Maybe if they "have" an airport in the neighbourhood that would raise their influence. Plus with a secure base of operation there Turkish companies gain an important infrastructure if they want to establish themselves in the country. Also if Turkey controls that airport, every other nation (and their companies) who wants to use it has to be friendly with the Turks.
Afghanistan has many natural resources waiting to be extracted, which will mean income to the country which means money they'll spend which means they are an untapped market. They'll need mining companies, maybe processing plants, factories. Resources can be exported as raw materials, but it is more profitable if goods are made out of them first. Taliban has money for anything? Not really, everything will need foreign investors, they can be another China at this point.
They have untrained laborers, so first only basic manufacturing can be started there (or such automation that only needs a chimp to push a button), but as income trickles in and education rises, the production can be more complex. Then the workers will earn more money and they can be turned into consumers. Etc.
If Turkey has a foothold and a major air bridge, it can prove a huge advantage on the long run.


Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 20:58:15 [Preview] No.44856 del
>>44854
>Turks are right to seize opportunity
Well, sure, like anyone else
>and they have plenty of opportunities to pursue.
Given their current Syria, Iraq, and Libya incursions I think they are overdoing it. The Aleppo and now Idlib business in particular I disapprove of. But I do like watching the kerfuffle when they openly countersignal their stuck-up NATO partners kek
>>44855
But wait a minute, you sound as if Turkey wasn't already operating the airport during the occupation
I thought they were already in charge of it and the talks were about renewal of the deal (maybe including recognition of new government)


Bernd 08/29/2021 (Sun) 10:06:46 [Preview] No.44857 del
Maybe I should disable Torposting. Starting to look really weird.


Bernd 08/29/2021 (Sun) 19:00:28 [Preview] No.44858 del
>>44854
>>44856
>all the other stuff going on right around them.
>they are overdoing it.
Maybe they would be better off without the Afghan adventure, but I can't judge what Turkey can bear.

>But wait a minute, you sound as if Turkey wasn't already operating the airport during the occupation
If you have source on the Turkish mission, their tasks and the timeframe it would be cool if you could share.
I know they did/do airport management, similar to us, but I think it's more of a flight control thing. I'm not exactly sure what our soldiers did, the list I found earlier and posted here somewhere above or in the previous thread is vague enough.


Bernd 08/30/2021 (Mon) 19:49:45 [Preview] No.44861 del
(23.58 KB 600x338 huawei.jpeg)
https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/8/30/is-isis-k-a-challenge-for-the-taliban
In the video an opinion was voiced, that the Taliban will fail because Taliban and ISIS ideologically are very close, but since the Taliban has to compromise their principles and turn pragmatic since they are wishing to govern in Afghanistan, they will lose support while ISIS will gain more power as more and more people start to back them.
I think this could lead to an interesting scenario where the Taliban could reach out to their former enemies, but in this case it can be demanded from them to compromise more and more. They're gonna have to walk the razor's edge.

About the Belt and Road Initiative of China and recent plans. Not read yet, just put this here so won't forget.
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2021/08/23/chinas-future-trade-and-development-intent-with-afghanistan/
Also Digital Silk Road
https://hillman.substack.com/p/afghanistan-and-chinas-digital-silk


Bernd 09/01/2021 (Wed) 16:47:49 [Preview] No.44869 del
Al Jazeera has that type of article which gets refreshed "minute-by-minute" (not sure how that format is called, it's like a thread) about Afghanistan. This links should open that up:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/1/biden-says-afghanistan-exit-marks-the-end-of-us-nation-building
It contains a piece:
>US Treasury issued new licence to ease flow of aid in Afghanistan
Basically says there's a paradox in US treatment of Afghanistan, they allow to send aid, while embargoing the country at the same time.
Among the bit fresher news:
>The US froze nearly $9.5bn in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank last month.
As another article posted here stated they have most of the gold of Afghanistan, and it is expected to be frozen by the US.
Ofc articles (in other media outlets too, for example Hungarian ones) say Afghan economy is on the brink of collapse, while humanitarian crisis looms.
So. How about not sending them aid, just give them what's theirs?

Another interesting morsel:
>In Jalalabad, ‘life continues as normal’
>“We spoke to some people and they said it is difficult to figure out what the future holds for them, but so far, they are satisfied about the situation in the streets because there are no more mobile snatching, no more kidnappings, the crime rate is low,” he added.
Law and order can be achieved.


Dutch bernd Bernd 09/01/2021 (Wed) 21:49:24 [Preview] No.44875 del
>>44861
>>44861
>In the video an opinion was voiced, that the Taliban will fail because Taliban and ISIS ideologically are very close, but since the Taliban has to compromise their principles and turn pragmatic since they are wishing to govern in Afghanistan, they will lose support while ISIS will gain more power as more and more people start to back them.

It's don't. I don't think anybody on earth likes isis at this point


Bernd 09/02/2021 (Thu) 04:17:38 [Preview] No.44887 del
>>44869
>Basically says there's a paradox in US treatment of Afghanistan, they allow to send aid, while embargoing the country at the same time.
something is broken inside the usg
they have been doing such apparently contradictory things a lot this year, like inviting china for the alaska diplomatic meeting and receiving them with the announcement of more economic sanctions
the same with russia, biden calls putin during a period of cold relations, they talk it up in the media as a step in thawing the relationship and the next day another department announces more economic sanctions against nordstream 2 companies and sovereign bonds of i don't remember what russian national fund
pretty bizarre
i don't know, it's like there are a bunch of government groups that don't talk to each other or something


Bernd 09/03/2021 (Fri) 11:14:29 [Preview] No.44894 del
>>44887
>the same with russia, biden calls putin during a period of cold relations, they talk it up in the media as a step in thawing the relationship and the next day another department announces more economic sanctions against nordstream 2

It is just realpolitik. US basically allowed NS2 to build, lifting all real sanctions. New sanctions are joke, they are used to have some political continuity in eyes of commoner, i.e. "look, we still against it". There must be some action from Russian side as part of deal, but we don't know terms. It is hard to imagine that US would easily allow that project without requiring some profit to itself.


Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 13:22:29 [Preview] No.44932 del
(48.91 KB 576x528 NRF.jpg)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/6/taliban-claims-complete-capture-of-panjshir-valley-live
Probably fighting is still going on, but for now the Taliban has the upper hand, they already claimed victory - which could be early propaganda maneuver, and might prove false.
The whereabouts of Massoud, the leader of the NRF (National Resistance Front, the holdouts in Panjshir), is unkown. Earlier they said they surrounded some hundreds of Taliban soldier. Massoud also called for national uprising and before that declared he is ready for peace talk and settle. Not entirely sure what the NRF want, I read about inclusive government (include all ethnicities), and semi-autonomy for Panjshir. Maybe neither, maybe both, maybe some other stuff are their goals.
Taliban is also chasing ISIS, arresting peeps.
New talks with Germany about aid and investment.


Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 16:22:46 [Preview] No.44933 del
(95.41 KB 720x1182 E-k17KZWEAIsbIg.jpeg)
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(318.52 KB 1080x1050 E-lONCRVgAAsPR2.jpeg)
>>44932
From what I gather they raised the flag in the capital (near the entrance to the valley) and called it a day.
They do control all provincial capitals now, I guess...

>Ahmad Massoud has released a 19 minute audio in which he confirms bombardment by Pakistan & Taliban in Panjshir which killed Fahim and many of Massoud’s family members. He asks Afghans to protest against Taliban. Resistance won’t stop. Asks international community for support. While expressing condolences to the martyrs in Panjshir, Ahmad Massoud says that Pakistan directly attacked Afghans in Panjshir and international community watched silently. Massoud says he won’t give up until his last drop of blood. Says, Taliban savages attacking with Pak help. Massoud: Taliban proved they haven’t changed. Talibs are not Afghans, they are outsiders and work for outsiders, and want to keep Afghanistan isolated from the rest of the world. All Afghans should join the resistance in any form or way possible. Resistance is still alive.
https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1434819091827544074

>TB flag raised in Panjshir center. Panjsher is fully under of TB
https://twitter.com/babrak__/status/1434737256959520772


Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 16:48:52 [Preview] No.44934 del
>>44933
>they raised the flag in the capital (near the entrance to the valley) and called it a day.
The Taliban is pressed to show they are in control and form a government. They can employ the Soviet and USian strategy to hold the important settlements, let the guerillas hide in the mountains and pretend towards the world that everything is all right, while they try to root out the resistance.
Not having perfect peace there isn't a big deal (for now), what they need is a stronger voice in the foreign media than NRF.
>Pakistan & Taliban
>Pakistan directly attacked
Getting foreign help also one step closer to recognition for the Taliban.

Also it would be interesting to see how the fights are going. Both sides are familiar (experts) of that type of warfare.


Coup d'état... Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 20:34:27 [Preview] No.44937 del
...in Guinea
The events a bit blurry, not sure the actual sequence, but...
On Sunday (Sept 5th), news appeared of a military rebellion east of Conakry, the capital of Guinea, Kaloum - the part of town where the presidential palace and most of the ministries are located - was sealed off. Heavy gunfire could be heard.
On state tv, colonel Mamadi Doumbouya appeared, the leader of the special forces and he addressed the nation in his speech. He told the viewers, it's time to unite, end the government mismanagement, the poverty and the corruption; he said as a soldier it's their duty to save the country, and they'll no longer entrust it to one man but to the people. The whole appearance gave the impression of a putsch.
Apparently they arrested President Alpha Conde, promised to change the politics, and introduced nationwide curfew. Today they lifted the curfew in mining areas, but barred the officials from leaving the country.
As of now other branches of the army are silent.

Conde was elected in 2010 as President during the first democratic election of the country, then re-elected in 2015. Originally a two-term limit was in effect, but in March last year, they changed the constitution that a president can serve three terms. Then in October Conde was re-elected the third time.
Since then protests were going on, the demonstrators clashed with security forces, dozens died, hundreds were arrested, opposition leaders as well.
Guinea isn't in a bad situation economically. She's rich in iron ore, gold, diamond, and has the world's largest reserves of bauxite. This ensured economic growth but as usual in African countries, the wealth does not trickle down, poverty and corruption goes hand in hand.


Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 03:40:02 [Preview] No.44938 del
>>44933
>indian
>accusing pakis
>"talibs are not afghans"
>shilling for muh "resistance"
lmao do you even geopolitics


cont. Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 07:42:25 [Preview] No.44939 del
(133.71 KB 1300x928 guinea-physical-map.jpg)
>>44937
The situation and script resembles to the recent Mali coup, where a questionable election was followed by civilian discontent and culminated in a coup done by officers (whom appeared in the media addressing the nation and the world), claiming to reform the political system and end the corruption of the previous regime.
Similarly the international reaction was the same: condemnation of the coup, demands to release the President and return to constitutional practices, and finally and most importantly: doing largely nothing.
Doumbouya's speech (well, what they wrote on Al Jazeera and translated from his telly appearance) has a couple of noteworthy points. First as they pointed out the reasons of their actions, the corruption of the leading politicians and the system. Their basis of the actions is the duty they were entrusted with. They also show themselves as committed to three values: unity, patriotism, and democracy.

I wonder what happened since then in Mali, if the coupists done what they promised - reshuffling the political deck and hold a new election -, or went on in a different direction, because what will happen in Guinea, it will follow similar path to Mali's, as it did up till now.


Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 15:56:17 [Preview] No.44942 del
The Taliban announced the new (caretakes) government and named several ministers, whom are all Taliban. It is not known if this cabinet will include non-Talibans yet.
The PM is Mohammad Hasan Akhund. He is the chief of the Taliban leadership council, for 20 years now, the Rehbari Shura, he is a founder of the movement, and the Emir since 2016. During the previous rule of the Taliban he served as foreign minister and deputy PM. Now he unifies the position of the head of state and the head of government.

Other names can be found here for example:
https://www.paktribune.com/news-details/mullah-mohammad-hasan-akhund-nominated-as-new-afghan-head
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/7/taliban-announce-acting-ministers-of-new-government
https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/who-is-mullah-mohammad-hasan-akhund-all-you-need-to-know-about-head-of-talibans-acting-govt


Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 16:48:37 [Preview] No.44943 del
>>44942
Wait.
This guy is the Emir: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibatullah_Akhundzada
I think I made a mistake, the Mullah title of Mohammad Hasan Akhund confused me I think. Even the second photo shows Hibatullah Akhundzada. Weird because this guy's pops is called Muhammad Akhund.


Bernd 10/05/2021 (Tue) 13:19:14 [Preview] No.45186 del
(313.45 KB 759x638 2021-10-05-Syria.png)
Made a screenshot of nothing really happening.
Some bug hunt with attack planes against Islamic State ants in the desert. I'm sure it's very cost effective. But who knows.


Bernd 10/06/2021 (Wed) 08:45:21 [Preview] No.45189 del
Another thing I "really should": update meself on Mali, apparently things are habbening there.
So tensions grow with France. The civil war thingy is going on 8 years now, France unable (or lacks the will) to clench it. After the coup of August 2020 they even withdrew some troops. The interim government of Mali engaged in talks with that Russian private ("private"?) mercenary group, the Wagner, which we knew from Syria. They also received military supplies from Russia. This France did not like, and told Mali they should fight their own fight and don't rely on France. I'm sure this will prevent them seeking help elsewhere... Anyway now Mali also told France they do not approve to the tone Macron used.
Btw. This year in May another coup was done. Colonel Assimi Goita decided he's got enough of the bs of the first civilian interim government and put them aside, and now he installed a second one it seems.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/6/mali-summons-french-ambassador-over-macrons-criticism
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/1/mali-receives-helicopters-weapons-from-russia

I think chief problem is if Western powers aren't willing or able to defend their... "subjects", others who have better track records against ISIS and such will be invited and step in. Then Western govts can throw hissy fits, it will be their fault.
Apparently it's not the first time Russia helps out in Mali. Here's an article from late 2019 (in Portuguese):
https://orbisdefense.com/mercenarios-dowagner-group-presentes-no-mali/


Bernd 10/06/2021 (Wed) 15:00:29 [Preview] No.45190 del
>>45189
Wagner are also operating in the Central African Republic and they were or are Operating in Mozambique and Sudan. I think that it's actually a fairly effective, low cost and low accountability method of projecting power. The problem with traditional military interventions is that they of course cost so much and if anybody is killed the operation can start to be scrutinised in the home country but Mercenaries don't require any of the expensive logistics and support of a traditional army and if they die well they were not part of the military they are just citizens doing their own thing of their own volition. Maybe France should establish such a mercenary force.

Interestingly Rwanda has also been sending armed forces around Africa to put down militant groups as well, they are on track to become a superpower before India and Brazil at this point.


Bernd 10/06/2021 (Wed) 15:08:33 [Preview] No.45191 del
>>45190
Yeah, I noticed Wagner is at many places, I think wherever ISIS is or similar, they have a force operating there.
>Maybe France should establish such a mercenary force.
Originally the Foreign Legion was that. Noone cared about if those died. Even now they get the most exposed places, but it's different times now.
>Rwanda
Supposedly the various cooperations of African states have peacekeeping forces, some countries are more active than others.
>they are on track to become a superpower before India and Brazil at this point.
Tell me more. What's up with Rwanda?


Bernd 10/09/2021 (Sat) 10:48:12 [Preview] No.45234 del
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Tension intensifies between Mali and France. Mali PM uses harsh words criticizing their post-colonial overlord, I assume to place pressure on France to keep (more) troops there. (This article uses RT as a source much. Which means rock solid proofs ofc, no bias.)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/8/mali-accuses-france-of-training-terrorists-in-country

Some back and forth between the leading politicians of the two countries. Macron really can summarize the essence.


Bernd 10/09/2021 (Sat) 15:34:00 [Preview] No.45240 del
>>45191
>What's up with Rwanda?
It's been the Prussia of Africa for a few decades, famous for military exploits in the Congo such as this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Kitona


Bernd 10/09/2021 (Sat) 16:13:20 [Preview] No.45241 del
>>45240
Sounds like a coup attempt from the outside.
>DR Congo
Always reminds me of Dr Alban.


Bernd 10/22/2021 (Fri) 09:12:55 [Preview] No.45347 del
The Franco-Malian spat continues.
If France do not send more help, Mali needs to negotiate with Al Qaeda, at least.
>Another HCI official said no talks had yet taken place.
For now it sounds like another tool to pressure France. It tries to show Mali has other options. They even have precedent to back it up:
>The HCI mediated talks in central Mali’s Niono Circle area – quietly backed by national authorities – that led to a peace deal in March between JNIM fighters and traditional hunters that oppose them.
HCI = High Islamic Council; created in 2002, to coordinate, mediate between religious groups, it seems.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/19/mali-asks-islamic-body-to-open-negotiations-with-al-qaeda


Bernd 10/23/2021 (Sat) 13:53:00 [Preview] No.45358 del
>>45347
The govt. of Mali denied they entrusted anyone to go and negotiate. Essentially the previous article said, that nothing happened yet, but they felt the need to make an official statement, after they heard about the news from the media. I assume their local media. I can't really go and check that out because it's all French to me.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/22/mali-denies-asking-islamic-body-to-negotiate-with-al-qaeda


Dutch bernd Bernd 10/23/2021 (Sat) 22:53:07 [Preview] No.45360 del
>>45347
>If France do not send more help, Mali needs to negotiate with Al Qaeda, at least.

I feel liek that's the plan France has for the long term. Wear Mali out internally so they get a even worse owner and then they intervene and present themselves as "saviours" or something


sage Bernd 10/23/2021 (Sat) 23:01:31 [Preview] No.45362 del
>>45360
>I'm showing as a bong now

r8


Coup in Sudan Bernd 10/25/2021 (Mon) 18:32:22 [Preview] No.45393 del
In 2019 April Omar Al-Bashir, who was the leader of Sudan for three decades, was removed by a coup d'etat. In the following month a military-civilian joint government took over, with the promise of an election in 2023. Abdalla Hamdok became the PM (who served in various positions in the bureaucracy, was a minister too).
Now the military faction took the civilian leaders into custody (including Hamdok), monopolizing the power for themselves. There were some protests demanding each side to take over, essentially.
Additional information:
- before Al-Bashir was deposed by the armed forces, protesters also demanded them doing something.
- in September a coup attempt was done by the military, they just botched it
- internationally the coup was condemned and everyone expressed their deepest concern as usual

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/25/timeline-sudan-since-the-fall-of-omar-al-bashir


Bernd 10/25/2021 (Mon) 18:33:12 [Preview] No.45394 del
>>45393
Oh, the coup happened today.


Mali slavery Bernd 10/29/2021 (Fri) 19:13:40 [Preview] No.45415 del
Another detail about Mali.
In the Sahel region hereditary slavery (descent-based or caste-based slavery as they call it) is still alive and kicking. The French abolished the practice of slavery on their colonies, but they were lenient about domestic slavery, and after they left, while most states around enacted laws against the practice, Mali did not.
At certain regions the society is divided by birth to noble and slave caste (the slave status is inherited via the mother), and nobles enjoy full rights and privileges, while slaves have to live among certain restrictions (like can't marry outside their caste, can't own land, they have to prepare meals for the nobles, etc.), they also often get beaten and humiliated publicly. Sometimes they even get murdered.
It's a socially accepted norm by some hundreds of thousands of people, the nobles even say it's voluntarily. Since who doesn't want to be a slave he can move, they don't tied to the land, but I can see how those people who knows nothing father than the border of their village have a hard time to leave everything behind. They even use ostracism, and banishment as a form of punishment!
But many tens of thousands of people are against the practice, and I assume as they raise awareness, the more supporters they get. And the question is raised in international media, and in the UN too.
One thing the question is interesting related to the conflict: the oppressed and discontent masses are easily influenced by radical ideas, and are prime recruiting materials of groups like Al Qaeda.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/29/slavery-is-alive-in-mali-and-continues-to-wreak-havoc-on-lives
https://observers.france24.com/en/20190924-video-malian-man-tied-public-opposing-traditional-slavery


Bernd 11/24/2021 (Wed) 15:07:10 [Preview] No.45661 del
Anyone following the Tigray War? Last time it was on the news the government lost Dessie and it keeps losing more and more. It'd still take a while for the Tigrayans and Oromo to reach the capital, though, unless there's a sudden collapse as in Afghanistan. Tigrayans are pushing south on a salient and have their left and right flanks exposed. The left flank, towards Afar, seems irrelevant because of topography and low population density, but the right flank faces the Amhara and an offensive against the salient could be dangerous. There's also the possibility of a new Eritrean offensive against the Tigrayan heartland; that depends on the politics of Eritrean involvement. Also notable is that land connection between the capital and the Amhara heartland is apparently cut off by Oromo insurgents. From their performance at war and in the past decades, the Tigrayans seem to have the most disciplined troops and most cohesive home front.

I'm really wondering about the geopolitics of this war. It seems Egypt and Sudan oppose the Ethiopian government.


Bernd 11/24/2021 (Wed) 15:44:05 [Preview] No.45662 del
>>45661
>Anyone following... ?
Nod really, but I see it mentioned on Al Jazeera, I could familiarize meself with the situation.
It is a difficult terrain for sure, favouring defence. Following the roads is mandatory, those were established along the routes that are passable in the first place.
Sudan and Egypt has its own problems, especially Sudan, I believe Egypt is more calm. But they could be bridges for foreign support to arrive in various forms.


Bernd 11/24/2021 (Wed) 20:21:14 [Preview] No.45664 del
Hmm. What I don't understand how the Tigrayans could dominated the 1991-2018 era. 5% of the population, from a semi-arid area.
And even know their army provides results.


Bernd 11/25/2021 (Thu) 02:30:38 [Preview] No.45672 del
>>45661
I was following a bit on twitter but can't really keep up with everything tbh

this guy runs a map & compiles a tweet feed, decent info imo

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&hl=en


Bernd 11/25/2021 (Thu) 08:14:43 [Preview] No.45675 del
Right now I think the answer for this >>45664 is: economical factors. I have to look it up.

Also I'm really curious how a battle looks like there.

More also. If I understand correctly this conflict had two phases for now. In the first, the Tigrayans (who are not just Tigrayans but other folks, I think I'm gonna use the designation as the people who live in that region, regardless of ethnicity) were pummeled, and they conducted guerilla warfare, and the second when they gathered enough strength to step onto the battle field, forced out the govt. troops, and initiated their own offensive.
In short:
1. asymmetrical phase
2. conventional phase
These ofc can be divided further.

From the top of my head three conflicts with similar characteristics:
The campaigns against Scotland by Longshanks, the story of William Wallace, and Bruce and all that.
The Napoleonic War in Iberia, locals fighting as guerillas then Wellington arrived.
Vietnam has parallels with the Cong and the NVA both engaging with South and their allies.


Bernd 11/25/2021 (Thu) 22:00:44 [Preview] No.45679 del
>>45675
Tigrayans also have a tradition of doing that - btfoing everyone.
This is their third Woyane already.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woyane_rebellion


Bernd 11/27/2021 (Sat) 14:30:01 [Preview] No.45691 del
>>45679
Apparently they also are the kernel of the Ethiopian statehood. Tigray and Eritrea should be one country.


Bernd 11/27/2021 (Sat) 17:16:48 [Preview] No.45693 del
>>45691
>Tigray and Eritrea should be one country.
Eh, they have a pretty long separate history – Medri Bahri was established as one of the successor states, north of Mareb river, after dissolution of kingdom of Axum, & remained a separate state (apart for a short period when it was joined to the rest under Zara Yaqob) all the way until late 19th century (and soon later it was conquered by the Italians again to be separate until end of WW2)


Bernd 12/01/2021 (Wed) 15:26:42 [Preview] No.45736 del
Scratched the topic of what kinda forces are participating in the battles of Ethiopia's Tigray War, the magnitude of the fighting.
On eritreahub.org I found such snippets as:
February 11-15, 2021 [...] Ethiopia’s 11th division was “destroyed” and the 32nd division was “annihilated”.
June 17-19, 2021 [...] In one battle, 3,700 soldiers of the Ethiopian army’s 11th division engaged the rebels and after three days of fighting, 100 soldiers had been killed and 900 captured, including the government troops’ commanding officer.
June 28, 2021 [...] Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation of Boston, said that of 20 Ethiopian federal army divisions, “seven have been completely destroyed, three are in a shambles”.
A former head of the INSA, Ethiopia’s intelligence agency, said two thirds of Ethiopia’s forces, amounting to around seven divisions, had been killed, wounded or captured within one week of the start of “Operation Alula”.
July 16, 2021 [...] Three Ethiopian regions sent soldiers to reinforce the national military and Amhara’s troops in their fight against the Tigrayan rebels
July 19-23, 2021 [...] it was reported that the Ethiopian 23rd division had been destroyed, while the operational commander of the Ethiopian military’s Eastern Command, Colonel Awel Yassin, had been captured

Also it seems the participants has regular troops, and militias.


Bernd 12/01/2021 (Wed) 17:10:11 [Preview] No.45738 del
(1.19 MB 1032x706 Yemen 2021 12 01.png)
>>45672
From that feed it seems the Ethiopian government is recovering. In the Afar front a Tigrayan offensive was beaten back, it's relevant because of the road junction to Djibouti but I doubt the federal forces can attack from Afar into occupied Amhara territory, the topography is against them. Of greater concern is the attack on the salient from the west, which can threaten the entire Tigrayan offensive.

Checking up on Yemen:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1k_5mC2oHM9Lj4I5irFA0pkXbqKQ&ll=13.220864820229021%2C49.27975627810735&z=6

https://insidearabia.com/is-there-hope-left-for-the-beleaguered-yemeni-government/
>As Houthi power has been growing since 2015, the UN-recognized Yemeni government has become increasingly fragile. The recent loss of additional territory to the Houthis, mass protests in Taiz, Aden, and Hadramout, and the falling currency in government-controlled provinces have dealt it a triple blow.

So nothing really new.


Bernd 12/01/2021 (Wed) 18:01:40 [Preview] No.45739 del
>>45738
Two or three roads that lead into Tigray controlled area from Afar. Those could be easily closed down. I dunno if they have any reason to go into Afar, their target should be Addis Abeba. But in the place of Tigrayans I wouldn't rely on static defense towards them, but would try to move forward, and build up defensive positions behind as the front progress forward. So I would continuously put some pressure there, which would also occupy enemy forces, tie them down, and don't allow to regroup them on the front towards the capital.

>Yemen
Last time I heard Saudis lost space and control. Or something like that.



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