Also, right now the events of the past months can be evaluated in hindsight, as I myself wasn't expecting an invasion. When Putin began his military buildup, he certainly wasn't just doing exercises and wanted to get concessions through gunboat diplomacy, with war as his alternative. Western media reported on American "intelligence sources" constantly predicting war but in an untrustworthy way, not substantiating their claims, but now it seems they had basis in real intelligence, even if they repeatedly got the dates wrong.