Bernd
02/23/2022 (Wed) 10:20:53
No.46559
del
02/23/2022 (Wed) 10:20:53
No.46559
del
From the news I gather that Russia either sent troops or not. I think they sent some personnel and more material support, but actual Russian army units weren't moved. It seems the Western reaction came as a response to the recognition of the separatist states, and not to a Russian military action.
I think this first step Putin tests the waters, what would the West actually do.
They have legal basis to claim the whole Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, the constitutions of the two People's Republic were written so it represents those regions as a whole. I think it would be a too large step to move for them, that would mean actual war between Russia and the Ukraine, if it would come to that Russia would do further steps which she will do anyway I believe, first moving actual units into the area the separatists hold. They may or may not hold a referendum to join Russia depending which is preferable - acting on behalf two small and defenseless countries to gain back their lands held occupied by evil Ukraine, or acting on behalf on her own interest to get back her own lands.
For now they'll also see if the West would be willing to engage in the conflict, or they would allow them to do whatever they want with Ukraine, satisfied by their own masturbatory measures of sanctions.
It's clear that Russian leaders don't care if the country and themselves personally get sanctioned. So these won't stop them taking further steps.
I believe Putin will be satisfied by taking that area the size of Crimea for now. Maybe it's his last move he'll ever do, the rest will depend on future generations. I don't think Russian people in general would support a war. A war with unknown cost especially.
>>46555
>Which is why the latest "Ukrainian attacks" are probably false flags or random noise. The Ukrainians are not that stupid, they'd only push for a war right now if they had a guarantee of Western military participation.
You're probably right. I think the Ukrainian leadership is too powerless to do anything to begin with. It could very well be however that some of the incidents are done by the decision of local troops. During WWII along the Hungarian-Romanian border in the divided Transylvania, while our armies fought the Soviet far in the east, military action was continuous, essentially they fought skirmishes all the time, initiated by either sides.
>>46558
>even Hungary sent forces to the border.
I did not hear about that. It could be that our border with Ukraine got reinforced, especially as it seems countries hereabout count on a wave of Ukrainian refugees, so those need to be processed.
>I don't see how this situation could be resolved in a way
It cannot be resolved. No war between global/nuclear powers, and Ukraine suffers from a power vacuum, which allowed Russia to move her foot in. Maybe one day Russia will claim the whole country. But I don't think she will in the near future. This tension is just too good for every participants to end it. Like all the things all over the globe that never gets resolved.
I think this first step Putin tests the waters, what would the West actually do.
They have legal basis to claim the whole Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, the constitutions of the two People's Republic were written so it represents those regions as a whole. I think it would be a too large step to move for them, that would mean actual war between Russia and the Ukraine, if it would come to that Russia would do further steps which she will do anyway I believe, first moving actual units into the area the separatists hold. They may or may not hold a referendum to join Russia depending which is preferable - acting on behalf two small and defenseless countries to gain back their lands held occupied by evil Ukraine, or acting on behalf on her own interest to get back her own lands.
For now they'll also see if the West would be willing to engage in the conflict, or they would allow them to do whatever they want with Ukraine, satisfied by their own masturbatory measures of sanctions.
It's clear that Russian leaders don't care if the country and themselves personally get sanctioned. So these won't stop them taking further steps.
I believe Putin will be satisfied by taking that area the size of Crimea for now. Maybe it's his last move he'll ever do, the rest will depend on future generations. I don't think Russian people in general would support a war. A war with unknown cost especially.
>>46555
>Which is why the latest "Ukrainian attacks" are probably false flags or random noise. The Ukrainians are not that stupid, they'd only push for a war right now if they had a guarantee of Western military participation.
You're probably right. I think the Ukrainian leadership is too powerless to do anything to begin with. It could very well be however that some of the incidents are done by the decision of local troops. During WWII along the Hungarian-Romanian border in the divided Transylvania, while our armies fought the Soviet far in the east, military action was continuous, essentially they fought skirmishes all the time, initiated by either sides.
>>46558
>even Hungary sent forces to the border.
I did not hear about that. It could be that our border with Ukraine got reinforced, especially as it seems countries hereabout count on a wave of Ukrainian refugees, so those need to be processed.
>I don't see how this situation could be resolved in a way
It cannot be resolved. No war between global/nuclear powers, and Ukraine suffers from a power vacuum, which allowed Russia to move her foot in. Maybe one day Russia will claim the whole country. But I don't think she will in the near future. This tension is just too good for every participants to end it. Like all the things all over the globe that never gets resolved.