I still believe no armed conflict will arise between Russia and Ukraine. But after Russian troops get comfy in these new countries, they're gonna hold referendums about joining Russia, with ~90% "Yes, Of Course!", and Russia will get away with it like she did with Crimea. In Hungarian news I read some exbert saying Russia will take the whole southern coast, with Odessa as the main target. I'm sure that would be a theoretical goal, but Russia could not do that without the backing of local population, and through an actual open war. Anyway West will remain very concerned, but impotent in general. I find it likely that they don't even wanna do anything. What are those regions mean to them? Nothing. They are fine with their political maneuverings and stuffing their giant corpos. Now supposedly the whole EU sanctions Russia. I'm not sure how this effects our dealings with Russia and our gas supplies. We buy it on reduced price so the hike in oil prices (and with that the gas) won't have that much effect, but can we still buy it? We also have some agreement on exporting goods to them.