Very busy atm so I can't follow this shitshow, but I have read a few recaps.
I have to say, despite stating that part of me (a part that I keep in check because it's not the most coldbloodedly rational) considered a forceful Minsk 2 OK, this war has surprised me as I thought it was a mistake. As I wrote somewhere, war with a closely-related neighbor clearly looked to me beneficial only to the us/nato/west. So russia embarking on that project looks to me like playing into the hand of the "western partners". I thought the deployment around ukraine was useful first to decisively deter an incursion on donbas (which would have required a response and thus the cancellation of NS2, a goal for both kiev and washington), and second in applying pressure to kiev, creating economic problems due to the risk and uncertainty, strangling western investment and thus influence, pushing them into considering concessions regarding their nato plans. I did not expect an actual war, especially after many weeks of them officially stating that they did not "intended" one.
Quite a few other surprises as well:
- Why the very quick ground operation even reaching the outskirts of cities after the air strikes if the goal is demilitarization? I suppose it could be about military targets found near cities like bases, AA systems, and command centres, but do those need a ground strike? I guess the answer is: it is not only that because just demilitarization means kiev continues on a western/nato trajectory and ns2 is lost, which means you are back at funding their anti-russia project through yamal, basically just deferring the problem at best
- I would have expected that any invasion war would be similar to a US-like operation where they only move in when they are fairly convinced that all serious defenses have been taken out by air superiority. Yet I have seen more (unconfirmed but plausible) reports of decommissioned armor, either destroyed or just abandoned, than I expected for the early hours of a conflict. If those reports are to be believed then I suppose RU strikes missed some of the drones/mines/manpads/javelins/whatever it is they are facing. Seems like they might have acted too hastily.
- Also surprised by the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition. Maybe Kiev was surprised too. Or maybe it was an "invitation" to get bogged down in suburban areas? I hope the russians haven't forgotten about Grozny
Also, I'm disappoint, son. My guess is this war will not help the cause of multipolarity much. Instead it seems more likely to accelerate another west/east split into a kind of quasi "cold war 2". US/the west will see to this through the use of economic sanctions, which are really just a limited form of economic warfare, and split the world into 2 camps: those who obey washington's economic uprightness and those that defy it. This could be potentially quite bad for fast-growing countries not yet constrained by us foreign policy, like china and india (they have good enough relations with russia), and, precisely for the same reason, be desirable by washington so as to prolong the era of global hegemony.
It's only been a day but war is tragic and even more tragic among kindred people, I'm hoping for a rapid humane conclusion. Sigh.