Bernd 04/18/2023 (Tue) 00:53 No.50115 del
Gradual realignments continue in Syria. Arab diplomats want to diminish Iran's influence in Syria in exchange for Assad's reintegration into their international community:
https://thecradle.co/article-view/22321/an-egyptian-plan-for-syria-arab-forces-on-the-border-and-iran-out

HTS continues to build influence in Turkish-occupied Syria and tries to take advantage of the iron-fisted stability al-Qaeda rule offers, which some civilians might prefer to the Turkish-backed rebels and their infighting and harassment. They're even playing up their relative "tolerance" of minorities. I gotta admit Jolani is a reasonably competent leader. He's good enough of a military commander to crush all of his enemies in Idlib and very pragmatic with his image. But he plays with the cards he's dealt, without Turkish interference Idlib would fall to the Syrian Army.
https://syriadirect.org/al-jolani-in-jenderes-is-hts-using-minorities-as-a-way-into-northern-aleppo/

>>50114
>Country might heading towards a civil war.
That makes for some good thinking on when does a failed coup become a civil war. The clear dividing line is when both sides are seeking a military solution and have given up on political instruments to change the balance of power (i.e. getting battalions to switch sides, or intimidating their commanders into seeking exile). Defections are rife when the coup begins and become rarer as it transitions into a civil war.