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Syria Thread - Suffering on the Ukraine Bernd 09/20/2022 (Tue) 10:15 [Preview] No. 48765
Previous thredder: >>47132

A bit of habbenings had on the Syria every couple of day, in general nichts Neues as the poet says.

On the Ukraine they go slow, but Ukrainians in Bilohorovka again, while Russians are now operating over the Bakhmutka, south of Bakhmut.

Bernd 09/20/2022 (Tue) 11:45 [Preview] No.48766 del
(182.04 KB 742x671 Bez tytułu.png)
Russians are constantly shelling New York. Joe Biden wake up, you're under attack.

Bernd 09/20/2022 (Tue) 13:05 [Preview] No.48767 del
The LPR, DPR and Kherson are going to be holding referendums on joining the Russian federation from the 23-27th of September. This could enable Russia to escalate the war.

Bernd 09/20/2022 (Tue) 13:50 [Preview] No.48768 del
>Joe Biden wake up

Just the right time.
Not sure about the moral of the troops they can gain. Some military age young men must be enthusiastic about it (nothing wrong with this either), but they don't represent their generation.

Bernd 09/20/2022 (Tue) 14:36 [Preview] No.48769 del
Zaprozhia Oblast is joining this referendum event too now. But, that's even more dubious because they don't even hold Zaprozhia the city yet so presumably they would not hold the majority of the population.

I don't think their are any issues with moral on either side and I think the moral aspect has been over emphasised in this war by the west in particular. They say that Ukraine will win the war simply because they are defending their homes and somehow that means they will win but history really does not reflect this. So long as soldiers are part of a cohesive and organised unit then they will fight.
It depends on how they decide to escalate. They might simply keep the war the same but start arming and training the militia groups as if they are part of the Russian army and mobilising more men within the region or they might go for a minimal mobilisation of conscripts of the Russian army.

Bernd 09/20/2022 (Tue) 23:25 [Preview] No.48770 del
(269.10 KB 1191x842 Rybar armenia.jpg)
As this went unnoticed, here's a map of the specks of land Azerbaijan got across the Armenian border a few days ago. I wonder if they'll conquer a land connection to their enclave (and Turkey) when they have the chance.

Bernd 09/21/2022 (Wed) 07:39 [Preview] No.48772 del
This came earlier with couple of days.
So basically they doubling the amount of soldiers they have.
Until they get their training months will pass. However they could direct fresh troops there from other parts of Russia during that time.

Bernd 09/21/2022 (Wed) 07:48 [Preview] No.48773 del
Now Western bureaucrats bleeting the mantra, that "it is an escalation" and "the war will threats Europe" etc. So they are deebly goncerned their pals in the military industrial complex will earn a lot of money.

Bernd 09/21/2022 (Wed) 09:30 [Preview] No.48774 del
Putin announced a mobilisation of people with relevant experience and reservists and said they would be trained first.
Following this Shoigu went into more detail. He said they plan to mobilise 300,000 people, they will not mobilise students and refusing mobilisation will be punishable by up to 10 years in prison.
So yes, that doubles the amount of troops they have, however, Shoigu also said that conscripts would not be sent into combat which is curious. This means that either they are going to build this force up and then recruit volunteers from there to send to the front, or this force is not intended to be involved in the war at all but is meant to free up other soldiers and be used to stare off with the west.
Either way, I agree, this probably won't effect the war much for months.

Will it is a concern. If Russia had fought a quick war and finished it by now the Russian army would have stayed the size it was and at most it would be that 170,000-190,000 strong force sitting on Europe's borders, which is scary but not actually dangerous. Now, they are going to be looking at a Russia with that and more sitting on their borders. But then I really don't know what they expected, of course something like this was going to happen if the war dragged on too long.

Bernd 09/21/2022 (Wed) 10:03 [Preview] No.48775 del
I wonder who owns the Ukrainian armament factories.

Bernd 09/21/2022 (Wed) 10:26 [Preview] No.48776 del
This also means NATO will raise military spending more, from the current (recently raised) 2% of GDP.
Which means less money for schools and healthcare for us. And right now it is scandalous what's going on in Hungarian education. Teachers, students demonstrating all over, while we have shortage of teachers (at some places volunteer parents go in to teach), no money to heat the buildings, etc.

Bernd 09/22/2022 (Thu) 02:31 [Preview] No.48777 del
Azerbaijan military is putting field signs on vehicles now. We now what that means...

Bernd 09/22/2022 (Thu) 02:37 [Preview] No.48778 del
There has been a prisoner swap negotiated with the help of the Saudi crown prince of all people.
10 Foreighn fighters were releases including the Moroccan and two Brits that were caught in Mariupol, a number of other soldiers from that were released including some of the commanders.
The Russians got back some soldiers and officers as well and they also got the Oligarch they wanted.
Well it looks like all is well that ends well.

Bernd 09/22/2022 (Thu) 06:17 [Preview] No.48779 del
That A hes a banor?

Yeah. Back to the front.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=IYaRQKF0mpk [Embed]

Bernd 09/22/2022 (Thu) 19:25 [Preview] No.48782 del
Military History Visualized channel uploaded couple of Ukraine tank situation related videos, they aren't too fresh:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FYmwfC99eek [Embed]
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SqoGKEMrTu0 [Embed]
3. (this one I have not watched yet)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=VxNFXIur5Co [Embed]

Bernd 09/23/2022 (Fri) 16:35 [Preview] No.48783 del
So the first video is about the tanks on the Ukraine and the Ukrainian officers observations.
The second video concludes that sending Leopard 2-s onto the Ukraine might not be the best idea, they can be more bother than worth and even can turn out to be entirely useless (some commenters pointed out that they still could replace the T series tanks in places without fighting but need tank cover for whatever reason, so those can be moved to active duty; which might be a good idea but means the Leos won't see any combat). The opinion of the Ukro officers in the first vid confirms this one.
In the third the bloke goes through a Bundeswehr evaluation from the '90s which compares the the T-72 and the Leo 1. The report was made for politicians who had to decide what to do about the tanks they inherited from the DDR. Interesting insights in the very end of he video.
These three are cool, offers other considerations, many and all round considerations about the armour warfare related to current conflict.

Bernd 09/24/2022 (Sat) 04:20 [Preview] No.48785 del
I remember I saw the second two some while ago. I like that this guy uses primary sources and a lot of his content is that, but when he adds his own arguments and opinions they can be silly.
It would make sense that the Germans would pick the Leopard 1 over the T-72 seeing as they would have designed the Leopard 1 to fit their requirements in the first place. But this gives an insight into what they value and why they made the Leopard 1 like that and it seems they wanted good situational awareness to react and adapt to the situation and good mobility.

Bernd 09/26/2022 (Mon) 06:22 [Preview] No.48807 del
(1.47 MB 640x352 qk4ebq.mp4)
A BTR opened up on a line of M113s and apparently destroyed 6 of them(hard to see in this video there is a lot of smoke). This was to be expected...

Bernd 09/27/2022 (Tue) 22:41 [Preview] No.48829 del
Russian annexation of the liberated provinces will probably happen for real, the referendums have already taken place. Proofs:

Russia is losing in Lyman and has already given Ukraine another bridgehead around Kupyansk. In Kherson they can hold off the pressure better, but did not reverse the Ukrainian offensive and have lost a bit more ground.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 06:40 [Preview] No.48832 del
I think the partial mobilization is a reaction to deeper problems. They probably are one step behind. I expect them to act in haste and make some mistakes which we'll might see.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 08:43 [Preview] No.48833 del
It's hard to say what is happening in Lyman. They are not pulling out like in Izium even though they are in danger of being encircled. They are losing ground in places but will this be allowed and is this part of some other plan? I don't know, we will have to wait and see if Lyman falls or not.

As for Kherson, it's the same as it has been and in fact the Ukrainians have actually been pushed back a bit. As seen in this map compared to this map >>48747

The Partial mobilisation was done in conjunction with the referendums which had been talked about for a while now. They were always going to go together as once the Donbass enters Russia the nature of the war changes.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 08:53 [Preview] No.48834 del
>They are not pulling out like in Izium
They pulled out from Izium because they had to.
And the referendums are reactions are deeper problems. What foothold they established it's slipping out from their hands. They need to move more troops in (need that mobilization), but they only can if they can justify it (changing the occupied territories to their own territories with the referendums).
Russians lost the initiative, the control of the events in Ukraine.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 10:04 [Preview] No.48835 del
Yes, they withdrew from Izium to avoid being encircled. But they are in danger of being encircled In Lyman if they are not operationally encircled already. It's probably too late for them to pull out from Lyman now as well, they have allowed this. As the Rybar map >>48829 shows, the only remaining road network they have is through Zarichne which is very close to the front now. However, the road leading to the river from Kolodydyazi does actually run-through to a small road over a dam and then to Terny, so that may enable some resupply, but that is at risk as well.

They were planing the referendums for a long time and they had said before these offensives that they were going to happen at about this time. I think the two are unrelated. Remember, any mobilised reserves are not going to reach the front for months anyway and the Russians would have known about the troop build-ups for these offensives and would have an idea of what effect they would have. I think that if they were mobilising due to it they would have done so pre-emptively.

The forces in Khakiv were spread thin and were more of a screen than anything else, so they fell back very quickly and it does not impact the war in anyway. Lyman is different because they are actually fighting a determined resistance and as I mentioned above the Russians are not going to pull out, it's too late for that. They are committed to this.

So then whether Russia actually has lost the initiative and is in trouble or not depends on the events that will unfold in Lyman. For all we know the Russian may be quite happy letting Ukraine throw their forces into a meat grinder and just waiting for the Ukrainians to run out of steam before they counter attack. Conversely, maybe they are in danger, maybe the Ukrainians will take Lyman and then push further east. We don't know.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 12:08 [Preview] No.48836 del
>they have allowed this
>they did it on purpose not the Ukrainians forced them and exploited their blunders and slowness, this was the plan all along
Russia can't keep up with Ukraine, and falls back in the race.
They had the initiative in the very beginning but they lost it day by day and now Ukraine has it. They are in trouble.
In their withdrawal there was very little planned, they were vis majored from their positions.
>They are committed to this.
And they'll get encircled and trapped. Then forced to surrender. This will be a major news. But not a turning point which decides if they lost the initiative or are in trouble. They both did and are.
>counter attack
Neither side have any such quickness/mobility in them, only when the Russians retreat. Plus no weight to do such thing either. Well now the Ukrainians maybe have it, but Russians aren't. They are committed east of Bakhmutka and Kherson.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 12:37 [Preview] No.48837 del
Well, we are just going to have to wait and see. We will see what the situation is in a week or two or maybe even a few days if the situation really is bad for Russia.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 12:45 [Preview] No.48838 del
I found this video that is interesting in two ways. Firstly it shows how funny looking these close fights often are, you often see people shooting at each other barely 10 metres away and both missing completely. But I guess stress does that and we don't know how well they are trained.
Secondly in this video a grenade is thrown right next to two Ukrainians and they both seem to barely be effected by it and they run of at the end. This often seems to be the case with all kinds of ordinance in this war, even artillery does not seem to have the effect that you would think it would.

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 16:56 [Preview] No.48839 del
That is interesting for sure.
Yeah, missing even from close range is just the reality of small arms fire. We talked about the inability to kill, but modern training aims to come over that obstacle. There are other factors too, as you noted stress does that, plus the effect of the grenade, disorientation, whatnot, I think they were glad to remember what direction to leave.
It seems the grenade fell among that rubble/junk next to them, and prevented to do its job ideally. I guess it had shrapnel and the rubble caught most of that (but then, the rubble itself can act like projectiles).
What I'm curious of, where those two came from? At the start of the video they aren't there. I think that is a drain running below the road, the other side collapsed obstructed (probably that's the normal, peacetime state of it...) so maybe they were inside the drain? But these drains with these roads don't tend to be hueg, so maybe they came somewhere from the outside of the camera's view?

Bernd 09/28/2022 (Wed) 19:41 [Preview] No.48840 del
>Putin announced a mobilisation of people with relevant experience and reservists and said they would be trained first.
>Following this Shoigu went into more detail. He said they plan to mobilise 300,000 people, they will not mobilise students

It's fucked up completely, even pro-government people try to soften what happened now. Voenkomats (military recruiting centers) grabbed everyone on random, even 60+ yo people with serious health conditions, often without any medical check at all. No one knows would it be 300k or million, or more, there are only rumors. There are reports that some of mobilized already gone to Ukraine without training, but it is hard to confirm now. Dagestan has local unrest, Chechnya was smarter and said that they wouldn't mobilize anyone.

Biggest thing is that Shoigu said something about ages and experience, but published government order had no restrictions at all - they can grab anyone.

Basically, everything in full panic now. Thousands run for borders to visa-free countries (like Georgia or Kazakhstan), airline tickets skyrocketed and hard to find. Borders aren't closed for everyone, but some people already got restriction. Different government branches trying to find how protect valuable workers in hurry, because mobilization was unexpected even for them. Some entities like Digital Technology Ministry have partially implemented solution for some workers (only for specific registered companies, but even this isn't fixed in law now), others still in talks with MoD.

>refusing mobilisation will be punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

Only if you signed under mobilization notice in voenkomat. At least for now, but situation changes pretty fast.

I don't meet Shoigu conditions for multiple reasons, but there is a chance that everything would be bad for me too, they've mobilized some people like me already. I took some effort in hiding though, but don't know if it would be enough.

Bernd 09/29/2022 (Thu) 02:58 [Preview] No.48842 del
Maybe, I don't think the rubble obstructed it that much though.
They could have come fro anywhere, maybe we will get a longer directors cut at some point and we will be able to see.

I heard about that, about how much of a mess it is. Though it's Russia so you expect that.

>Only if you signed under mobilization notice in voenkomat. At least for now, but situation changes pretty fast.
So what happens if you refuse to sign the papers in the first place? Could you do that?
Otherwise, staying low seems like a good option, though if they have you on record that might be hard.

I think conscription of any kind is immoral, one could eve say it's murder.

Bernd 09/29/2022 (Thu) 07:07 [Preview] No.48843 del
I only have knowledge about this from NFKRZ's and Survival Russa's videos. Links:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=q02QJ6NBhu0 [Embed]
NFKRZ basically is saying what you wrote. Survival Russia seems less skeptical about what the official said (particularly: they only pick for service who is able and has the related professional XP; but not about the losses for example). He also adds couple of considerations, opinion and anecdotal evidence. Liek they call people in, but who gets the draft letter gets examined and his data validated, then they decide about his fate. So the 60 yo gramps was called in then sent home, because he is old. The bloke who was called in but is more useful with his civilian profession sent home.
My XP is that when I had to go through the conscription process, I had to do run around for the medical papers, then after high-school I was notified to go into the next drafting office, then I gave a paper that I'm in uni now, then they gave my ID back and sent away. They have plenty of useless people to choose from they do not need every one of them.
Just because someone gets called up, doesn't mean he'll serve. At least right away, he'll be still put into the db that he is available for later or not. So what the real troubling is this:
>No one knows would it be 300k or million, or more

Do you have videos where people blowing each other up with grenades? We can check how it should happen, and then we could try drawing conclusions.
From my understanding anti-personnel grenades have shrapnels around the explosive core, and both the cape of the grenade and the shrapnels are which results injury and/or death. If these guys got out seemingly unharmed, it means something obstructed it, or we have the wrong idea how injured (and/or dead) people behave, or we have the wrong idea about the effectiveness of grenades, or this is a fake video.

Bernd 09/29/2022 (Thu) 13:39 [Preview] No.48845 del
>So what happens if you refuse to sign the papers in the first place? Could you do that?

There are different types of papers that have different consequences. Some of these papers only about monetary fine, some are harder. They also can force you to do something, because it is Russia. Or at least try.

>He also adds couple of considerations, opinion and anecdotal evidence. Liek they call people in, but who gets the draft letter gets examined and his data validated, then they decide about his fate. So the 60 yo gramps was called in then sent home, because he is old. The bloke who was called in but is more useful with his civilian profession sent home.

That is what they often say in official and half-official news. But it very depends on local voenkomat and chance. Those people who are very unfit and get media attention have chance, but there are reports about those who haven't. Now it is very political, and government now unofficially blames voenkomats by pro-gov media.

Biggest problem that every decision is very high-risk. You may think that they'll surely will find you unfit on visit, but they'll do and now you can't escape. So every move, every action is very nervous and serious, because it is life changing one.

Dutch bernd Bernd 09/29/2022 (Thu) 14:54 [Preview] No.48855 del
New NFRKZ video. Banks in Russia are now stealing money from people who use it.

What's going to happen with you bernd? Are you going to get drafted too? And will drafts start in other countries too, like Baltic or Balkan states? What are the long term effects of this new draft?

Bernd 09/29/2022 (Thu) 18:58 [Preview] No.48857 del
>What's going to happen with you bernd? Are you going to get drafted too?

No one knows. In current situation I don't think that my future will be good.

Bernd Board volunteer 09/29/2022 (Thu) 19:00 [Preview] No.48858 del
If life gives you potato, make vodka. And post an IWO from upon the Ukraine.

Bernd 09/29/2022 (Thu) 19:01 [Preview] No.48859 del
Oh god. I forgot I'm logged in, and have the signature on.

Bernd 09/30/2022 (Fri) 06:33 [Preview] No.48861 del
>stealing money
>special operation of ceasing your finances

Bernd 09/30/2022 (Fri) 06:34 [Preview] No.48862 del

Bernd 09/30/2022 (Fri) 13:16 [Preview] No.48864 del
Putin and the delegates or whoever just signed the, uh, liberation papers of four oblasts, Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhia, and Kherson.
He gave a speech too, some justifications and whatnot. Nothing really astonishing.
Now these regions are liek Crimea, which isn't acknowledged as part of Russia, but in practice everyone do as it was. Even Ukraine did not attack Crimea when they had the opportunity. Will this deter them, and stop further actions towards these places? Will they retreat from those areas which still are on their hands?
For example Lyman is in Kharkiv region, but they hold large chunk of Donetsk.
Will they move cautiosly as they did not really attack into Russia herself. Russia already mobilized and took steps to raise their presence there. Now the ball on Ukraine's side of the field. We'll see.

Bernd 10/01/2022 (Sat) 05:55 [Preview] No.48867 del
If Muhammad had red hair, he was probably a (((Jew))).

Bernd 10/01/2022 (Sat) 09:37 [Preview] No.48870 del
This is the situation around Lyman today.

Only the road to Zarichne remains for resupply but the Russians have sent reinforcements through it and have worked to stabilise the front, the Ukrainians had taken Stavky as well but the Russians pushed the Ukrainians back from there.

Russian forces are in a dangerous situation in that pocket, I wonder if they will try to break out and form a new line or not.

Bernd 10/01/2022 (Sat) 11:37 [Preview] No.48871 del
Apparently the Russians have withdrawn from Lyman, interesting. The reinforcements must have been there to facilitate that.
So now the question is whether the Russians have secured their positions and the Ukrainian advance will stop here, or if the Russians really are in trouble and the advance will continue.

Bernd 10/01/2022 (Sat) 12:40 [Preview] No.48872 del
Yes, they withdrew.

Bernd 10/01/2022 (Sat) 14:33 [Preview] No.48873 del
Turns out Lyman is in Donetsk, not Kharkov as I stated here: >>48864
They still have a strip of Kharkov to the north.

Russians withdrew behind a river, they might just hold the line there.
I expect the Ukrainians take the aforementioned strip.
What's up with Kherson?

Bernd 10/01/2022 (Sat) 16:54 [Preview] No.48874 del
They had months to prepare a more ordered mobilization and didn't. I guess the political leadership thought any preparation for mobilization at all would already be a loss of face and induce fear.

Special financial operation.

Bernd 10/02/2022 (Sun) 18:28 [Preview] No.48877 del
Ukros moved further east from Lyman, they might have a foothold over the Zherebets river.
Further north at Kupiansk, at the one river back to west (Oskil), they also crossed and took Kivsharvika.
Plus some results at Kherson too.
The result of the Russian mobilization will have effect only later. But in what form?

Hmm, this report says the Russians lost 60K soldiers. I heard Russians estimate 60K Ukrainian losses too. Sounds a lot for both sides. But the conflict is going on for well over 200 days now. The last numbers (100-200 and 1000 deaths per day) we heard about the Ukrainians from June... I wonder what could be the daily average. If we go with the smallest number that's 20K. I don't think the highest could reflect an average. That 60K would be 300/day. Maybe that isn't too high.

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 00:56 [Preview] No.48881 del
Russia started the war with 170,000-190,000 and conventional wisdom is that for every dead soldier there are 3 maimed. So if Russia lost 60,000 dead then the real losses to their fighting forces would be 240,000 all up with dead plus maimed. Now, there is clearly a discrepancy here, if that's true Russia should not even have anybody left in Ukraine.

When they announced mobilisation they also said they had lost 5000 but that was only Russian servicemen, a few months ago the CIA and M!6 said they lost 10,000 but I think that estimate covered everybody. So it's possible that if you added DPR, LPR, Chechens, Wagner and Russians you could get 10,000 or that Russia lied and gave a figure a bit lower than the real one and 10,00 is more accurate. But Russian causalities could also still be higher than that. It's really hard to estimate these things.

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 01:29 [Preview] No.48882 del
(620.00 KB 576x640 IMG_8154.MP4)
Yes, it looks like they are launching fairly large scale attacks in Kherson and are having some success in the north of the region.

As for the east of Ukraine. I'm still unsure about it. Torske is behind a river but it's a fairly small town/village so the Russians may have felt that unable to hold it and so it may be a situation like the Kherson bridgehead. However if they take Kreminna then we know for sure that they still have momentum, Kreminna is quite important.

It's hard to say what effect the mobilisation will have and when but I don't think it will be the deciding factor here, I think the deciding factor will be whether the Ukrainians can keep their momentum or whether Russia can wear them down.

Also, I found and Australian M113.

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 10:29 [Preview] No.48886 del
Kadyrov is sending his 16,15 and 14 year old sons to the front...

>Ahmat, Eli and Adam are 16, 15 and 14 years old. Their military training began a long time ago, almost from a young age. Ahmat, Eli and Adam are ready to use their skills in the SVO zone. I'm not kidding, it's time for them to show themselves in a real fight, and this is their wish, I can only welcome it. They will soon be on the front lines.

He is insane. This has to be a stunt.

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 10:58 [Preview] No.48887 del
Literally all their ancestors were fighting in that age. Or do whatever Chechens were doing back then.

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 11:55 [Preview] No.48888 del
Latest Kherson map. They are gaining ground.

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 13:49 [Preview] No.48890 del
More from Kherson(it's kind of in the other one as well though).

They may finally take Davydiv Brid. I said before that I think that town is very important and that the gains they had in the south would be untenable without it.

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 08:02 [Preview] No.48892 del
Military History Visualized new video about the Russian setback:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=AcgzB9hqxqo [Embed]

But more importantly updates from Colonel Reisner:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q9-NER8aFJ4 [Embed]
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MojUU8GgThM [Embed]

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 12:14 [Preview] No.48893 del
(232.43 KB 465x781 Bez tytułu.png)
The strip of land north of Łyman up to the border has been... liberated? Abandoned? Idk, I guess it has been abandoned by the Russians since there's no marks on the map about fighting, except for the few places on the south.

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 12:16 [Preview] No.48894 del
Stay safe Bernd, don't get dragged into the frontline.

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 12:25 [Preview] No.48895 del
The first video by Colonel Reisner of the Australian Bundesheer is partially about that. He talks about the Ukrainian offensives in Kherson and Kharkov: >>48892
Essentially the Ukrainians punched through the Russian lines, and Russians fled.
I also suggest to watch other of his videos on the channel.

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 12:29 [Preview] No.48897 del
Oh sorry, it's the since then.
liveuamap is a bit funky in this question, it doesn't present all the events, and the map updates are erratic.

Bernd 10/05/2022 (Wed) 01:27 [Preview] No.48906 del
Russia fell back from northern Kherson including Davydiv Brid, the Ukrainians also launched a counter attack in the Donbass along the front near Bahkmut but it failed. They are really pushing now. Most of the units involved in these operations seem to be using western equipment or Soviet equipment from western sources, so these units were probably build up and held back for this offensive.

The Ukrainians had a bridge head at Kupiansk and also you can see that there are no natural defences in the south and that the area is fairly open and with few urban areas, so I think they are withdrawing to form a new line along the next river along.

Bernd 10/06/2022 (Thu) 07:34 [Preview] No.48912 del
Real Reporter visited a conscription office.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SD7xRKpf1kM [Embed]
What I'd add:
- It seems to be an office especially set to show to the outside world (he notes that not all offices has those facilities...), so relatively clean, neat, and has recruits with positive attitude.
- The "lawyer" guy, he does not remind me of lawyers, his physique is someone's who trains a lot, and his looks reminds me more of those who enter military service here, and maybe police for smaller extent. Or firefighters. I have doubts about him being a lawyer.
- I'm not sure about that "first mobilization since WWII" thing. They did have a war in Afghanistan, and intervened here in '56 and in Czechonorthernhungary in '68. And maybe others. So they had the opportunity to mobilize.

This reminds me it's october 6th. I have to write something about Hungary today. We'll see.

Bernd 10/07/2022 (Fri) 15:29 [Preview] No.48918 del
(36.56 KB 750x709 1473349484980.jpg)
OPEC cut oil production. "sharply"
Europe is getting fugged into the buttocks yet again.

Bernd 10/07/2022 (Fri) 20:53 [Preview] No.48919 del
There is advancement. Despite the hit song titled:
>Ukrainian miltiary repelled Russian attacks
But those who edit liveuamap doesn't know other tunes.
The front is now hugging the Bakhmutka river up to Bakhmut, also the Russians gained more land north east of that settlement towards the direction of Krasna Hora.
Pic #2 is from July when current offensive started.
Compared to the current Ukrainian successes, the going is very slow. Although steady.
I also noticed, no long range bombarding into occupied territory.
Pic #3 are the new borders in theory.

Bernd 10/07/2022 (Fri) 20:53 [Preview] No.48920 del
First time in my life I feel like middle east doesnt have enough democracy.

Bernd 10/07/2022 (Fri) 20:56 [Preview] No.48921 del
Really should write a letter to Ungle Biden about this unbearable situation. Maybe the US would drop some democracy upon them from a bunch of B-52s.

Bernd 10/08/2022 (Sat) 07:44 [Preview] No.48922 del
Was just complaining nothing happens.

Bernd 10/08/2022 (Sat) 11:13 [Preview] No.48923 del
Insane. I wonder how badly damaged is the remaining structure cause only half of the road line fell into the water.

Bernd 10/08/2022 (Sat) 12:09 [Preview] No.48924 del
I'm not sure. Supposedly some fuel truck blew up, but I'm not sure the thing should have fell down. It's liek the difference between a petard blowing up on your open palm and in your closed fist. But not that I'm any close to an expert, so.
Youtube has videos. Damage is everywhere. Here's one vid which is a collection of vids by The Guardian. Some official report footage too.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=fxgWCsampJg [Embed]

Bernd 10/08/2022 (Sat) 19:05 [Preview] No.48925 del
In the MHV video here >>48892 he mentioned no operational chief overseeing the Ukrainian theater to hold together, coordinate, and command the corps HQs.
Now Moscow named air Force General Sergey Surovikin as the overall commander. Read it on Al Jazeera. I do not have any info about his competence, I'm not sure a bad one could fuck up more so I guess anything would be in improvement. Those units need to coordinate their activities, share resources
Quite the redpill tho. Those units did not have unified command just for about a month in late spring/early summer or so. This partially explains why there wasn't and couldn't be any large scale encirclement implemented (besides the low manpower). They were just left there doing whatever they was able.

Bernd 10/09/2022 (Sun) 06:10 [Preview] No.48926 del
Pressure back on.
Did the new commander actually informed himself before he ordered everyone to attack everywhere? It seems like to me it's the
>I have to present results quick no time to think
Or the lower HQs sabotaging him on purpose?
Or they really have the resources to do it?
Or I just get the wrong impression from the map, maybe it's intentional on behalf of its editors?

Bernd 10/09/2022 (Sun) 11:39 [Preview] No.48927 del
I've been looking at that map almost every day, that east frontline would have been attacked very often.

Bernd 10/09/2022 (Sun) 11:41 [Preview] No.48928 del
(8.62 KB 359x155 Bez tytułu.png)
Looks like Crimea Bridge haven't been taken out completely.

Bernd 10/09/2022 (Sun) 13:14 [Preview] No.48929 del
It looks like there are two 2 lane road sections and a rail section. One Two lane road section was destroyed so cars can still cross but they need to use the other section so I guess it's only one way traffic right now. Also there were fuel trains that were damaged and set alight in the explosion, they are being removed and the railway seems to be fine.

So this does not seem like it will have an impact on the Russian military as the railway is fine and Russian road transport will get priority use as well, so then it's civilians who will have to wait longer to use the bridge if it's one way traffic only. It might be like giant road works.

Putin is holding a security council tomorrow, so we will see what response there will be then I guess.

Bernd 10/09/2022 (Sun) 14:51 [Preview] No.48930 del
They were gong one way on the bridge, now they are going two ways on the two lanes that are left. So now I guess there is just more congestion.

Bernd 10/09/2022 (Sun) 16:08 [Preview] No.48931 del
At Bakhmut there is always some activity. But further down south on the front line close to Donetsk this isn't the case. And it seems they did some counterattack which is atypical too.

Bernd 10/10/2022 (Mon) 06:14 [Preview] No.48934 del
Putin says it was Ukrainian special services. Well, duh. Maybe they were helped by Westerners too. In a war it is normal to try to destroy each others infrastructure. And since Westerners are propping up Ukraine so can hold out, it would be normal to give intel support too (as they do anyway).

Bernd 10/10/2022 (Mon) 14:25 [Preview] No.48935 del
I found some more Bushmasters.

Bernd 10/10/2022 (Mon) 15:43 [Preview] No.48936 del
This post almost went unnoticed.
I'm clueless what's going on there. I know the Armenians got their asses handled to them, and drones played important role in this. They did not loss everything but Armenia "proper"?

Bernd 10/10/2022 (Mon) 21:33 [Preview] No.48938 del
Made bunch of screenshots today in the morning to make reference point.
Last pic I made to see where the Russians operate in comparison the colored areas. Is that a rail line south to north? Have to check.

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 06:11 [Preview] No.48939 del

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 08:04 [Preview] No.48941 del
Lots of bombing bombarding.

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 09:48 [Preview] No.48943 del
I thought Russia was going to fall back on to the river that flows past Kreminna but it seems maybe they are pushing back up to the one that flows past Zarichne. I'm not sure but this may mean the Ukrainians have run out of steam, this and they have not achieved anything in the last few days. But they could be reorganizing before pushing onwards, we will see.

Again... I wonder if we are going to hear that same story about how the Russians are running out of cruise missiles after this or if people will stop repeating it.

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 12:27 [Preview] No.48945 del
Yesterday on liveuamap there was an entry that during the bombardment one missile/artillery shell went horribly off target and crossed the Moldavian border, and the russian ambasador there was called for explanations. Was there a follow up to this story? I can't find anything so I was wondering, did they just decided to not react, or was it a fake entry?

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 12:36 [Preview] No.48946 del
I have not noticed. I'm gonna try to find it.

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 12:42 [Preview] No.48947 del
Found it. Seems it happened, not much consequences yet. Will be any? I don't think so. What can they do?

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 13:06 [Preview] No.48948 del
Reports are coming out about Russian activity in Belarus, Russian troops and supplies are assembling there and there has been a joint Russian-Belarusian military group announced.
Ukraine has sent a lot of what they had in reserve to the front as well as sending a lot of their newly formed western armed units there so I am not sure how well defended they are in the north now.
But of course it could just be a way to apply pressure and force Ukraine to withdraw forces without them actually invading from the north again.

Though it seems that early on in the war the Russians attempted to blitz Ukraine in a rapid coup which failed then pulled back as they were spread to thin, with the incoming mobilised forces(plus Chechens and other new forces) and the Ukrainians committed more heavily to the east they may feel that they are not longer spread to thin.

Bernd 10/11/2022 (Tue) 13:08 [Preview] No.48949 del
Finally, we can launch our own offensive and take back our clay.

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 10:13 [Preview] No.48963 del
KC refugee here, can I post anti RuShit-Memes here without getting banned?

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 10:15 [Preview] No.48964 del
Sure. You can probably get some more from the Russian lang boards too.

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 10:23 [Preview] No.48966 del
(29.63 KB 604x452 Fe0GENlWQAAlt6r.jpg)
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Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 10:34 [Preview] No.48968 del
I were thinking to build a bike like that earlier for us. Don't expect much good in the future.

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 10:43 [Preview] No.48969 del
Who benefits?

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 10:53 [Preview] No.48970 del
Not Wakaliwood sadly.
The French are salty they did not have the great idea to gain the support of the people by influencing them with moving picture tales.
Right now after all these years they look incompetent to clench the Al Qaeda/ISIS threat, while Russians/Wagner tells the locals they can do it themselves with a bit of help, kinda like Assad did. France did a shitty job, and the explanation isn't for them. They did either for incompetence, or they did it on purpose, which means they want the fundamentalist groups to create chaos.

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 11:28 [Preview] No.48971 del
good afternoon frens

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 11:31 [Preview] No.48972 del
nice hat mr. chairman

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 11:38 [Preview] No.48975 del
Good afternoon, Bernd.

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 11:38 [Preview] No.48976 del
Hello comrade. When the incorporation of Taiwan is planned to?

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 14:41 [Preview] No.48984 del
(207.97 KB 1280x960 Fe3y8B_WAAAs4q4.jpeg)
Doesn't look fixed yet

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 17:46 [Preview] No.48987 del
It was built for about 5 years or something. I'd assume it won't be a matter of days to fix it.

Bernd 10/12/2022 (Wed) 21:13 [Preview] No.48989 del
About the new commander of the Russian troops. Not read yet, just some Al Jazeera article.

Bernd 10/14/2022 (Fri) 19:11 [Preview] No.48995 del
Russian counterattack at Kherson? The Ukrainian offensive stopped?

Bernd 10/15/2022 (Sat) 03:27 [Preview] No.48996 del
Officially out of action till the July of 2023.

Bernd 10/15/2022 (Sat) 03:36 [Preview] No.48997 del
Musk is saying he cannot afford to keep Starlink running in Ukraine. It seems he is asking for somebody to help fund it.


I'm not sure if this is connected or not but there have been issues with the satellites lately as well. Ukrainian forces are saying that they are having difficulty getting coverage in some areas of the front, I have heard that be attributed to a lack of coverage over areas they have taken but also to Russian activities, if it was due to Russian activity that would provide even more incentive for him to want to either pull out of get funding for it.

I heard that was when it was to be fixed by. Parts of it seem to still be operational.

Bernd 10/15/2022 (Sat) 03:57 [Preview] No.48998 del
It's foremost the transportation of fuel that is compromised and consequential.

Bernd 10/15/2022 (Sat) 18:56 [Preview] No.49013 del
>Officially out of action till the July of 2023.
Just in time to supply whatever comes after the Russian capture of Bakhmut.

Bernd 10/16/2022 (Sun) 06:34 [Preview] No.49021 del
Maybe, it's hard to say how much this will actually effect that if at all. Priority use will naturally be given to the military, maybe that will not be enough, maybe it will. I don't think we will hear the truth, one side is going to say everything is proceeding as normal and the other will say the opposite.

Bernd 10/16/2022 (Sun) 11:02 [Preview] No.49028 del
How much is a khordad 15?

Bernd 10/17/2022 (Mon) 06:39 [Preview] No.49034 del
It's Wergeltungwaffe Putin is literelly Hitler!

It was something liek this:
>the occupied places should hold an honest plebiscite with international supervision, and if they want to join Russia, let them join.
Ukrainian diplomat/politician (maybe ambassador to US):
>fuck you, you talk cheap but you no act
>huh that Starlink I provide to give Ukrainian people access to the internet and more importantly the Ukrainian military can conduct the war with its help is getting costly, the American govt should pitch in, or just abandon the mission
Musk later:
>I'll still provide the service without reimbursement

Quick job is rarely a good one.

Was some attack on Belgorod airport yesterday.

Bernd 10/18/2022 (Tue) 06:47 [Preview] No.49039 del
If you have a country where a war fought, you can get people who will oppose current order, from there and anywhere from the globe, and stage them however as you want. I bet 90% of them expats from the US, whom the US govt raked together. They did the same with Afghanistan, and can do it with any country all over the globe. I bet they can put together a whole government for the UK, France, Canada too if they want.
Thats been said, this doesn't mean the intentions and the thoughts of these man are impure, no matter if they are just puppets and propaganda tools.

Bernd 10/18/2022 (Tue) 06:49 [Preview] No.49040 del
Oh, and this is just part of the Patriot's Dilemma.

Bernd 10/18/2022 (Tue) 08:24 [Preview] No.49041 del
>I bet 90% of them expats from the US
I find such speculation to be worthless. The estimated population of Chechen Americans is a mere thousand. If there are Chechen peoples in the US pushing propaganda against Kadyrov's administration; then it is of little effect, as that there are any Chechen's fighting against Russia in this conflict at all is unfortunately surprising. Also, why would the US government have to organise and compel Chechen war veterans to fight against Russia when they have been incipiently aiming to do so at the best opportunity since their defeat?

Bernd 10/18/2022 (Tue) 15:13 [Preview] No.49042 del
Not literally 90% from the US, but all the places the US can get people from.
>Chechen Americans is a mere thousand
More than enough for a dozen Chechen of a Potemkin unit.
>If there are Chechen peoples in the US pushing propaganda against Kadyrov's administration;
It's not for that.
>compel Chechen war veteran
It's not for that.
1. It's about showing the world that Chechens are divided, it's about propaganda for everyone else, for Westerners in the first place. It's another way of showing that Putin's regime stands weaker legs than Putin would like it want to show.
2. The NATO is gaining Sweden and Finland. In Ukraine a long, long conflict could set in, but maybe not and just gonna be divided sometimes in the next two years, Russia get some parts without being ever acknowledged, the rest is gonna get under EU/NATO control; we'll see. There is still Transnistria and Moldova to cause problems for Russia, but this could be short and minor issue. The Far East, like the Kuril Islands sound unlikely targets, although the Japs are arming, and then Korea is as divided as ever. Since the approach from Central Asia became harder (due to the failure in Afghanistan), it is more likely that NATO will stir conflicts in the Caucasus then there. And they probably need Chechens for that. Also need Westerners to think friendly thought about Chechens when this comes (a good propaganda is when it is able to convince people that a group is their enemy on one day, and friend on the next).

cont. Bernd 10/18/2022 (Tue) 15:19 [Preview] No.49043 del
On the very long run, the US probably has plans to create secessionist factions for all the various peoples in Russia. Chechens would be a good start. Who knows how many exits already, or have shortlists of people who could be motivated, or put together to do something.

Bernd 10/18/2022 (Tue) 20:07 [Preview] No.49044 del
Russian gains directly south of Bakhmut.
Also Belgorod oblast is now light pink.

Bernd 10/18/2022 (Tue) 20:43 [Preview] No.49045 del
Nigga, please. No one watches Al Jazeera. Do post a report from an American tabloid if you're going to be making this asinine commentary. The video doesn't even illustrate a weakening power of Russia and rather in the opposite shows Kadyrov confidently threatening to fight Poland.

Bernd 10/19/2022 (Wed) 06:09 [Preview] No.49048 del
>No one watches Al Jazeera.
>he himself watches Al Jazeera
I'll ignore the rest of this IQ89 comment.

Bernd 10/19/2022 (Wed) 21:09 [Preview] No.49050 del
(604.90 KB 1525x1024 snail-offensive.jpg)

Bernd 10/20/2022 (Thu) 07:43 [Preview] No.49053 del
EU wants to embargo Iran for the drone shipments to Russia.

Not sure how important those "kamikaze" drones are. I think I read various data on how many are them are neutralized by Ukrainian AA, and it is unknown how much pressure it puts onto the Ukrainian military and defense effort. Media prefers to report civilian casualties.

This article is severely biased (I like how it tries to depict a country acting in its own interests as sinister), but many nice crumbs of infos gathered together. Also to put things into geopolitical perspective.

I like this article better:
How drone warfare will change? They are a great advantage, and can be even larger. Will more effective anti-drone measures emerge?

Bernd 10/20/2022 (Thu) 10:25 [Preview] No.49054 del
Meanwhile in Syria, HTS rapidly entered deep into Turkish-occupied territory, displacing the local rebels. Wild speculations about Turkey's role in this:

Bernd 10/20/2022 (Thu) 16:50 [Preview] No.49055 del
HTS controls Idlib, no? They are also backed by Turkey, whom placed those "observation points" into the way of the SAA when they were carving chunks out of Idlib. Maybe they are getting bored or afraid they lose their edge while sitting and doing nothing.

Bernd 10/20/2022 (Thu) 17:26 [Preview] No.49056 del
Do you have a rundown of who is who on this new (old) front?

Bernd 10/20/2022 (Thu) 18:13 [Preview] No.49057 del

Bernd 10/21/2022 (Fri) 12:24 [Preview] No.49061 del
Looks like no progress has been made by Ukraine for a while.
Russia has withdrawn civilians form Kherson and apparently the Ukrainians are redeploying forces from Khakiv to Kherson. The New York Times and other western publications are saying that Ukraine has a finite amount of time to take back Kherson before the mud season. So maybe there will be a renewed effort, there have been some minor attacks that have not made ground in the area.

Bernd 10/22/2022 (Sat) 06:44 [Preview] No.49063 del
Well they apparently enacted "stabilization measures" which I'd translate: they put more troops there. Could be from Kharkov. They won't announce they plan to renew the offensive ofc.

Bernd 10/22/2022 (Sat) 07:14 [Preview] No.49064 del
In Austria an armoured column was heading yesterday to Hungary for a NATO-Übung.

Bernd 10/23/2022 (Sun) 01:31 [Preview] No.49073 del
Wow, they really did it. They sent Kadarov's sons to the front.

Bernd 10/23/2022 (Sun) 14:33 [Preview] No.49074 del
Sounds like a lot of small arms fire all about.

Dutch bernd Bernd 10/23/2022 (Sun) 15:37 [Preview] No.49076 del
Nod really. Red hair was fairly common until the Middle Ages when witch hunts happened. Redheads were thought to be the ones most likely to be witches, for some reason.

Muhammad was a redhead IIRC. That's what everyone describes him as. And pale skinned.

Bernd 10/24/2022 (Mon) 16:13 [Preview] No.49086 del
>until the Middle Ages when witch hunts happened.

The witch hunts happened durign the early modern period.

Bernd 10/25/2022 (Tue) 14:17 [Preview] No.49088 del
I think we had multiple happenings in history that could be described as witch hunts. I remember reading something about Germany in VIII to X century having that problem.
>Redheads were thought to be the ones most likely to be witches, for some reason
It was racism against the Irish.

Bernd 10/25/2022 (Tue) 15:25 [Preview] No.49090 del
It was but I don't think that is the reason for the decline in the region, I think it's more to do with an influx of Arabs and Turks into Anatolia and the Levant and pretty much everywhere really, though Muhammad(peace be upon him) was an Arab as well but it could be a literary creation or it could be that he had slighly reddish hair compared to The Arabs so they refereed to him as having red hair.

I think he is referring to Arabs/Moors not Europeans. There are traditions in Africa that still see the killing of such people but recently some Algerian or Tunisian woman killed a French girl for a similar reason.

Bernd 10/26/2022 (Wed) 01:54 [Preview] No.49094 del
>Do you have a rundown of who is who on this new (old) front?
There's a huge number of rebel groups but it boils down to HTS controlling greater Idlib and Turkey controlling Afrin-Azaz-Al Bab through the SNA. It seems HTS took advantage of the endless feuds within the SNA to intervene:
>On October 11, HTS intervened militarily in clashes between Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in the northern Aleppo countryside. The Idlib-based faction entered the fray on behalf of the Hamza Division (locally known as al-Hamzat) alongside the Sultan Suleiman Shah Division (al-Amshat). The Hamza Division was under attack by the SNA’s Third Legion, which began clashing with it after it was implicated in the assassination of media activist Muhammad Abdul Latif (Abu Ghannoum) and his wife in al-Bab city on October 7.

Turkey finally intervened:
> Turkish military leadership gave Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) until Friday evening to fully withdraw its security and military forces from territories in the northern Aleppo area of Afrin and its countryside that the hardline faction entered last week, local media reported. Turkish forces have also reportedly visited several checkpoints in the Afrin area to compel HTS members to leave for Idlib.
>But one HTS military source denied there was any Turkish deadline, telling Syria Direct that the faction itself has withdrawn a large portion of its forces, and “is still withdrawing new forces” that participated in the Aleppo countryside operation.

<there totally hasn't been an ultimatum to withdraw. By the way, we're withdrawing.
Yet according to the article, HTS is still in Afrin, just keeping a low profile, which makes its control ambiguous.

Now Turkey apparently wants to discipline and reorganize the SNA. Why haven't they done this before?

Bernd 10/27/2022 (Thu) 21:53 [Preview] No.49106 del
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It's the Middle East, Arabia 600AD, not HRE or wherever.
"Classic" witch hunts, in industrial size happened after Reformation, basically this >>49086
>Redheads were thought to be the ones most likely to be witches
I highly doubt there was such bias. Accusations based on personal interests. And protestant zealotry.
But, my comment was a joke. I think Jews gaining ginger traits happened due to mixing with Europeans, original Jews of the Middle East were, well, Eastern Med phenotypes.

Bernd 10/29/2022 (Sat) 21:59 [Preview] No.49119 del
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I'm collecting casualty reports on the Ukraine war. What we can see here are the Russian casualties as reported by the Ukrainian MoD. Now, obviously, these numbers are propaganda. But when assuming that the bias remains somewhat constant througout time, we can still arrive at some insights through them. While the conflict is taking up less space in the headlines and no sweeping offensives are underway, the 10-day average of daily Russian casualties keeps rising nontheless. This might be an effect of improved capabilities on the Ukrainian side, Russian conscripts arriving on the frontlines or one or both sides trying to increase the pressure on the frontlines.

Bernd 10/30/2022 (Sun) 09:38 [Preview] No.49121 del
Good job. Potentially could be very useful.
Where are those reports published? I sometimes see one on liveuamap like here: >>48877 but that seems a sum of the losses.
How frequently they publish them? How many reports were issued?
What's the legend of the chart? The two axes I assume the time (from April to October), and the # of man lost. But what are the dots? The numbers of each report? I guess the line is the actual visual representation of the process of suffering casualties from day to day.

What I see is a dropping a flat and a growing trend. The beginning of the war was more intensive, and now the pressure was put on again. On the liveuamap almost every day Russian attacks can be seen, so they constantly try to advance on the Bakhmut front, and often on Donetsk.
The first big jump in September was the Ukrainian advance, and gains? I have to look up when happened what.

Bernd 10/30/2022 (Sun) 09:45 [Preview] No.49122 del
First map is from 2 day ago.

Bernd 10/30/2022 (Sun) 16:19 [Preview] No.49123 del
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What you are seeing here are the numbers of Russian casualties as reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense which they publish daily on Facebook and other platforms. X-axis is indeed time and y-axis the number of Russian casualties per day. The grey dots are the number on each day and the black line is the 10-day moving average. I have cut off the initial phase of the war. Both because it makes the rest of the graph hard to read and because the numbers are interpolated and unreliable. Funnily enough, the newest daily report is so high (950) that it goes beyond the scale of the graph I'm generally working with. Pic related are the two graphs. Todays report echoes the bloodiest days from the beginning of the conflict.

What we can learn from this graph, I'm not entirely sure. It certainly helps me contextualize the current course of the conflict. Major real developments also coincide with spikes and valleys in the graph, so it's not completely detached from reality.

Bernd 10/31/2022 (Mon) 13:32 [Preview] No.49128 del
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Ah thanks. Maybe it's not that far from reality. I added the two data we got from Ukrainian officials (one from Zelensky and one from close to Zelensky, we mention the sources in this or the previous thread) from about June 1 and June 15: 100 and 1000 daily. I think somewhere they were also talking about 2-300 as well, but not sure when.

I'm wondering about all the "losses" Ukraine suffered from the the last ~20 years. They were 48 mil with Crimea, and it is estimated that the population is 41 million now. But a few millions migrated to West, mainly men got jobs in EU countries and now many women who fled from Ukraine during the war actually followed their husbands, sons, and fathers. Maybe there is a data of this. I can recall something liek Poles mentioning they received 2 million Ukrainians after the 2015 "migrant crisis" started, claiming those are enough they don't need Middle Easterners and negers.

Bernd 11/02/2022 (Wed) 07:44 [Preview] No.49135 del
Yesterday it was all bomb icons. Which at this point mostly means shelling.
The Ukrainian attack in Kherson seems not to happen. I guess, whatever the media publishes about the Ukrainians preparing to do is misinformation, and they do something else.

Bernd 11/04/2022 (Fri) 20:50 [Preview] No.49144 del
The map isn't interesting, but the news on the side:
1. mobilizing criminal offenders - Is this a good idea? I mean, sure psychopaths are nice if we want to get people killed, they won't hesitate much, but criminals generally unreliable to do what's demanded (bad at following rules), plus they might commit further crimes, which might mean more bad rap. And if the "criminals" are those who protest against the war, would sending them kill and/or die would change their mind? Would they be enthusiastic soldiers?
2. 318K mobilized, 49K "on combat tasks" - Well I heard after the mobilization got announced that they'll send to secure the annexed hinterland, doing maintenance, driving vehicles, convoys. Technically these could be combat tasks, but combat is more literal for me, actual fighting.

Bernd 11/05/2022 (Sat) 02:53 [Preview] No.49145 del
Yes, nothing has happened for a while now.

Wagner already started recruiting prisoners months ago, but that's Wagner. I guess it depends on what they are in prison for, what kind of unit you are sending them too and what you want them to do.

Yes, that has been what I wanted to know ever since the mobilization was announced, sure they are calling up 300,000 but what will they actually do and what will that actually change?
A few days ago some mobilised soldiers were captured by the Ukrainians but I don't know the context around that, they still could be logistics or it might be that some are fighting on the front but most are not.

Bernd 11/05/2022 (Sat) 09:16 [Preview] No.49147 del
The Russians ran out of bullets and have to use bows and arrows now.

Bernd 11/05/2022 (Sat) 10:00 [Preview] No.49148 del
There was one village Ukrainians took at Kherson.
>what will that actually change?
For now I assume, they:
1. solidify and secure the control of the annexed areas;
2. take whole Donetsk;
3. take whole Zaporozhia;
4. take a while.

Bernd 11/05/2022 (Sat) 10:01 [Preview] No.49149 del
They are making it genre appropriate on the steppes.

New Kraken Release Bernd 11/06/2022 (Sun) 21:57 [Preview] No.49157 del
27 minutes full of adrenaline fueling violence documenting the liberation of Kupyansk. Some shots are legitimately cinema-worthy. Enjoy a tour through rough, fogged landscapes. Across rivers, over fields and through towns we accompany the brave Ukrainian soldiers on their way to victory. But watch out where you tread! Festering cadavers line the roads and blown up tanks rust in the fields.
Sadly, they did not bother to code in subtitles. It doesn't matter much, however, as the focus is clearly on fighting, killing and violence. Makes you proud to be a man and to share a continent with such fearless warriors.
If you want to get even closer to the reality of the war or are just a sick fuck who gets off on seeing mutilated russian corpses, there's uncensored versions floating around Telegram.


https://youtube.com/watch?v=jVvgnHxJoSY [Embed]

Bernd 11/07/2022 (Mon) 01:55 [Preview] No.49158 del
It's interesting though I have seen bits of it before like the toilet part and the guy who looks like he crushed his leg when the BTR he was on crashed but I think calling them brave fearless warriors is a bit much, I am not saying they are not but I never heard return fire in any of those videos. It seems they were just mopping up stragglers. It's the guys in Kherson who are actually being brave.

Bernd 11/07/2022 (Mon) 09:46 [Preview] No.49161 del
They could have dodged military service or outright fled the country at any point between the invasion by a force that was projected by all parties to take their capital in a matter of days and now. They prevailed and are now reaping their rewards. I call that bravery.

Bernd 11/07/2022 (Mon) 09:54 [Preview] No.49162 del
The Ukrainians stopped men of fighting age from leaving pretty early on, they would be mobilised at some point anyway.
But what you are saying is that all volunteers are brave(it's Kraken so I would assume they are volunteers) regardless of whether they do anything brave or not, you are also saying that Russian soldiers are braver on average than Ukrainian ones as the initial force was a volunteer force and only now are mobilised soldiers beginning to be involved. I don't think volunteering to join the army automatically makes you brave.

Bernd 11/07/2022 (Mon) 11:22 [Preview] No.49163 del
From the what I understand (and through the limited contact I have with Ukrainians whose family members fight in Ukraine), the guys joining the military generally assume that they won't come out alive. If that's not bravery I don't know what is.

Bernd 11/07/2022 (Mon) 18:34 [Preview] No.49164 del
>getting yourself killed for the interests of some corrupt politicians

I would call it idiocy.

Bernd 11/07/2022 (Mon) 21:38 [Preview] No.49165 del
Watched some, quality is good. Will finish it sometimes.
Watched they made shots from next to a fence in the general direction of supposed enemy. Seemed to me they fired a bit high.

>dodged military service or outright fled
Borders were shut down for them. Needed dough to leave.

Well volunteers must have some motivation to join, stronger than the motivation of the fear from death and injury. In the "battles thread", about the killing, I think we discussed that average people frequently act bravely in the face of death, and can do breddy heroic stuff - especially if their other choice is killing people. But volunteers also have motivation to overcome the aversion of killing, beyond the training (and other factors we talked about) the army should give them to do that.

>the guys joining the military generally assume that they won't come out alive.
Losses must be breddy high.

Dutch bernd Bernd 11/09/2022 (Wed) 04:45 [Preview] No.49184 del
(80.00 KB 785x847 chubby apu.jpg)
This entire war is just kinda ridiculous

>Losses must be breddy high.
I think it's done on purpose for both sides. Example here >>49147

Time will tell if whoever is in charge of the military and our respective governments if each of our countries will pull these types of shenanigans again. But worse. Like with slingshots and rocks for examples.

Bernd 11/09/2022 (Wed) 13:14 [Preview] No.49195 del
The Russians have been evacuating civilians form Kherson, they are blowing bridges in the area and they have build fortified lines behind Kherson on the east bank of the Dniper.
Maybe they are going to withdraw soon. I don't think they would do this lightly after having held referendums there.

Bernd 11/09/2022 (Wed) 15:23 [Preview] No.49196 del
Well that was confirmed quickly.

Surovikin and Shoigu held a conference.

>Surovikin: Kherson and adjacent settlements cannot be fully supplied and function, people's lives are constantly in danger

He proposed a withdrawal to the east bank of the Dnieper and Shoigu agreed.

Bernd 11/09/2022 (Wed) 15:36 [Preview] No.49197 del
>Like with slingshots and rocks for examples.
I can see it: they'll employ Palestinian kids as drill sergeants.

>Surovikin proposed
>Shoigu agreed
Then Putin pulled his hands out of their asses and put them back into the box of puppets.

Bernd 11/09/2022 (Wed) 15:49 [Preview] No.49198 del
This is interesting.

This removes Russia's bridgehead over the Dnieper but in order to push forward Ukraine has to cross the Dnieper as well.
So it's likely both sides won't try to make any more serious moves in the area which then frees up most of the Russian grouping in the area to be relocated to other fronts. This applies to Ukraine as well.
Logistically, this will shorten Russia's supply lines quite a bit, there will not be large amounts of fighting in that area an so they will not need large amounts of supply. Where these forces are relocated to will be easier to supply.

Ukraine's next move will most likely be to try and push south to Meltipol and Mariupol. Russia has a large number of options that it might pursue given the size of the border, they could launch a new assault on Kyiv, Khakhiv or anywhere. But I think most likely they will focus on the Donbass still, particularly as that also threatens any large Ukrainian groupings trying to push south.

Bernd 11/09/2022 (Wed) 16:29 [Preview] No.49200 del
I concur. Dnieper is a bitch to launch an attack over, I agree that Melitopol and Mariupol has to be more promising goals with a southward push.
Also the main Russian target to gain control over whole Donetsk. With that, they can threaten any southward operation of the Ukrainians, and probably prevent against Mariupol. Problem is the current directions Russians are going probably the most fortified.

Bernd 11/11/2022 (Fri) 09:58 [Preview] No.49202 del
And they are already gone. They blew up the Antonovsky bridge behind them as well.

That's fairly impressive, retreats are notoriously difficult so I thought there would be difficulties withdrawing particularly as they are withdrawing over a river. But the day after they announce it they are gone and no complications seem to have arisen, not even with the rear guard, I'm not sure their even was any fighting in the rear as they left.
They were clearly planning this for a long time but still.

Some minor actions in the Donbass as well, the Russians took Pavlivka.

Bernd 11/11/2022 (Fri) 19:10 [Preview] No.49203 del
That retreat was probably their best planned operation of the whole war.

Bernd 11/13/2022 (Sun) 13:25 [Preview] No.49205 del
One of the ex-prisoners that Wagner recruited either surrendered or deserted so undercover Wagner guys knocked him out with a brick, took him to a basement and executed him with a sledgehammer. They filmed this and uploaded it as an example to the rest. I'm clearly not going to post it or save it or even watch it.
These guys are savages.

Bernd 11/14/2022 (Mon) 08:27 [Preview] No.49206 del
Now they reshuffle the deck, on both sides. We'll see what happens.
I'm hoping Colonel Reisner will post something soon.

Kek. Funny but true.

How do we know they were Wagner if they were undercover? How did they get to a prisoner of the Ukrainians?
>These guys are savages.
I can imagine that. But if one wants to keep in check psychos... All "disciplinary" military units consisted of brutes, from the French foreign legion to Dirlewanger, and back into ancient past (those who committed something that was judged as crime by the commanders got to posts where most brutality was needed).

Bernd 11/15/2022 (Tue) 19:22 [Preview] No.49211 del
Oh no, I haven't posted a map for a while now.
When I opened up liveuamap it was quite empty, then I refreshed, oh the activity.

Bernd 11/21/2022 (Mon) 09:12 [Preview] No.49235 del
At least one thing changed in the past week maybe. Russians gained some land at the Bakhmutka, south of Bakhmut at Zaitseve.
Compare to the first map here: >>49122

Bernd 11/22/2022 (Tue) 01:17 [Preview] No.49246 del
It's hard to say what is happening there, I do hear about positions and villages being taken but because of how fortified the area is the ground they actually take on a map is very small and hard to pinpoint.

Bernd 11/23/2022 (Wed) 08:17 [Preview] No.49278 del
The Kurds look like they might be in trouble. The Turks have been hitting Kurdish positions and Erdogan has indicated that a ground operation was on the table.
Things are no better for them in Iraq, the Iranians are hitting them there too and have also been talking about a possible ground operation.

Bernd 11/23/2022 (Wed) 22:16 [Preview] No.49300 del
What a curious turn of events.

Only need to sleep two, and it'll be done.

I think there always are a number of artillery/drone(?) attacks on them.

Bernd 11/24/2022 (Thu) 20:51 [Preview] No.49315 del
One effect of giving up the area west of the Dniepr, if Russians managed to evacuate well, they can barrage the land however they want, with whatever they have, no need to be precise or even close to it.

Bernd 11/25/2022 (Fri) 01:12 [Preview] No.49317 del
(675.35 KB 1199x751 Syria november 2022.png)
Turkish strikes on northern Syria. Erdogan is drumming up a major operation, but then says this:
>Erdogan said the new military offensive, planned to take place “at the most convenient time for us”
So he might very well postpone a ground offensive.

Bernd 11/25/2022 (Fri) 19:42 [Preview] No.49322 del
I also prepared an offensive to take Transylvania back, I just postponed it to a time which will be the most convenient for me.

Bernd 11/27/2022 (Sun) 16:27 [Preview] No.49328 del
I'm thinking about the manipulative nature of the liveuamap when it comes to Ukraine >>49211 (and probably to other conflict).
How only Russian areas are painted light-red while Ukraine itself remains uncolored, not indicated in any way, as if it would remain out of the conflict.
In contrast the Syrian maps >>49317 gave colors to each sides, quite a few.

Bernd 11/28/2022 (Mon) 11:49 [Preview] No.49330 del
The Russians are making gains south of Bahkmut, a number of villages have been taken. It seems that Wagner groups is primarily responsible for it. Ukraine is sending more forces to the region and did launch a counter attack that failed as well.

Bernd 11/29/2022 (Tue) 08:11 [Preview] No.49331 del
Thanks for reminding me.

Bernd 11/29/2022 (Tue) 19:55 [Preview] No.49332 del
(4.79 MB 1280x720 rr-wagner3.mp4)
So what I wanted to post. Watched Real Reporter who visited his hometown and talked to his friends "friends"?, but here's a snippet. He mentions that some ads on the streets, billboards (from what I can tell not the one shown) are Wanger's recruitment ads. Is it important? You be the judge.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=0kUSskRhdSs [Embed]

Bernd 11/29/2022 (Tue) 20:38 [Preview] No.49334 del
Liveuamap also shows the gains there. They are basically over the Bakhmutka, and hugging that north-south railroad line between Bakhmut and Horolivka.
Beyond that in that triangle with Kostantinovka in the last corner, there are open fields with that one canal thingy cutting it in half. But in google sat maps one can find interesting features here and there, like banks surrounding square piece of areas. And ofc treelines and such dividing the fields.

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