>>52309
>I heard rumours that the war was going to end in a ceasefire this year. So I wonder if maybe the Ukrainians are launching this attack in the hope that it will give them at something to use at the negotiating table.
I see/hear/read rumors and speculations about that. That "peace plan" of Zelensky's they hyped this year also part of this rumor mill. But Russia has no reason to sit down yet. If they feel they can take more land they'll just go on.
For now the Kursk incursion did not slow down the rest of the fronts, Russians have a capacity separated just for the "SMO", and they use other resources to defend Russia "proper".
On the other hand Ukraine's army is getting weaker by the day. When the cohesion drops low enough, Russia will be able to do anything. And they are betting on this in Moscow I think.
I do think they won't do quick captures like at the very beginning of the war. They will be suspicious of everything. Hidden minefields, booby traps, guerillas in hiding. They don't want neither of these behind their units. Perhaps a point comes when they drop most precautions, perhaps not.
For the Western powers it would be advantageous to have a peace that is temporary, to have a situation they could reignite (especially indirectly through provocations), but the Kremlin don't want to replay this war ever again. They want all the places in their strategic interest to hold, and want Ukraine neutered. They want a buffer zone between them and NATO. They want a buffer zone they have influence on, like Belarus.
They have unfinished business in the Caucasus, and potential confrontation zone in the Baltics, a new one with Finland, and on the longer run in Asia. While China is friendly now, the two countries are rival too, and their cooperation will only last until the US is a danger for both.