His main points: >Putin is going to have to remove large numbers of better troops and better equipment from the front lines in Ukraine, and this means there will almost certainly be collapses of the Russian lines in Ukraine. >the choice for Putin is clear: cannibalize key parts of the Russian lines in Ukraine, almost certainly leading to major Ukrainian breakthroughs there, or allow Ukraine to occupy, control, and demilitarize large swathes of Russia on Ukraine’s border. Because as it stands now, Ukraine has smashed through the rear support lines of the Russian right flank of the entire war effort and will be able to threaten and roll up a large chunk of the Russian line in the north of Ukraine unless a dramatic redeployment of Russian troops from those Ukrainian lines occurs. Again, simple math. And Russia will have to keep a closer eye on other border areas, too, further diverting resources from the front lines in Ukraine Lots of wishful thinking, the Russians continue to advance in Pokrovsk on a daily basis and potential elite Ukrainian reinforcements have been sent away to Kursk. HistoryLegends mentioned the Russians transferring reserves from the Belgorod-Kharkov axis to Kursk, that's a medium-term brake for their ambitions in Vovchansk. But Vovchansk matters a lot less than anywhere in the Donbas. The chart he cites as a "dramatic decline" of Russian attacks isn't dramatic.
He makes interesting points that the offensive aims to cut off rail lines and occupy high ground. He also correctly points out Ukraine's impeccable secrecy and surprise.
08/17/2024 (Sat) 21:16
No.52324
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