Bernd
08/27/2024 (Tue) 08:42
No.52365
del
The Shit Hit the Pants
- Wyatt of Defense Politics Asia
He means Ukrainian side holds back information on frontline changes until they can't hold it anymore and have to be released.
I don't know, it is surely the case with New York, but on the rest of the frontline they update daily. I agree they want to release the news when they have another serious result in Kursk, to lessen the blow. And on their official map (Deepstate) the situation is the same at NY for a week now (while there are no reports of fighting within NY).
Anyway. The Ukrainian Kursk offensive started on August 6. Deepstate released no mapping till the 11th, and the last change they noted was on the 21st. So they don't really cover it.
So here's the map of the Pokrovsk front, or rather the Pokrovsk-Avdiivka-Toretsk triangle from August 6 to August 26 (last update). Changes were noted on daily basis. RuAF is pushing constantly. Won't be winter until they reach Pokrovsk with this rate. They don't need to capture it to reduce it's importance as a supply hub. One important line to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk will be disabled. Which means more pressure on the rest of the supply lines, more traffic, more targets to strike, and reduced effectiveness of troops in that important region of the Donbas.
I'm curious when will the front start to move north at Keramik. I think Russians have troops only to hold the line there and they try to push towards Pokrovsk as long as they can, have the momentum, trying to keep Ukrainians from solidifying the line and keep them on the move.
Will the US Prez election change anything?
Even if Trump gets elected (seems likely) he won't be sworn into office till January. And then Putin still has to agree to sit to the table. As long as the Kremlin feels they have the upper hand, I don't think they will. And as I wrote before, they want this war be done and never repeated. They want strategic victory, with strategic objectives, and a neutralized Ukraine, or what's left of it. And for that they have to push more. It's not about ground but the ability of Ukraine to wage war. Forces will crack, western support will vanish, then the frontlines will crumble they'll still keep slow relatively as written before.
So no. I don't expect any change from the US election and until then still much more water to flow down the Dniepr.