As noted above we're gonna have election in April. I was looking around for voter preferences, I really have no idea these days where to find such, but came across picrel on this site: https://partpreferencia.hu/
To sum it up: Essentially 5 parties has any level of chance to get into the parliament. Reps can be elected directly from constituencies and through party lists but party lists has a 5% threshold. So as a "full" party only 3 has a real chance. The variation in the result - some pollster predicts Fidesz others the Tisza will win confidently - is probably due to political bias. I've no idea which pollster is in the pocket of which party. The parties that contest for the 199 seats: Fidesz-KDNP - the ruling party, for 15 years, Orbán and co. TISZA - the collector of opposition voters, led by Magyar Péter DK - remnants of the old socialists, MSZP Mi Hazánk - right radical opposition, the succession: MIÉP -> Jobbik -> Mi Hazánk MKKP - the joke party, or as started such
So. Restricting it only for sure voters. Fidesz might get 40-50% Tisza might get 40-50% Mi Hazánk will get in, but remains a small party