Brazil is having Presidential elections.
Bolsonaro vs Lula
No, not that Bolsonaro but his son. That one is still in jail, or in house arrest due to his health issues.
First round was yesterday, inconclusive:
- Bolsonaro 47%
- Lula 45%
And 50 was needed. In the second round they just need the majority of votes. 2% is not much I think, but it is an indicator. Past occasions:
2022 - Lula 48 vs Bolsonaro 43 -> Lula
2018 - Bolsonaro 46 vs Haddad 29 -> Bolsonaro
2014 - Dilma 41 vs Neves 33 vs Silva 21 -> Dilma
2010 - Dilma 47 vs Serra 33 vs Silva 19 -> Dilma
2006 - Lula 48 vs Alckmin 41 -> Lula
2002 - Lula 46 vs Serra 23 -> Lula
So in previous occasions the leading candidate won in the end, but differences were larger, in some cases significantly larger. Polls seem to favor Lula tho.