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Iran has reacted by stepping up its bombardments of the U.A.E. After proceeding at a low level for weeks, Iran’s missile and drone attacks on the Emirates have risen sharply in recent days, including nearly 50 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones on Tuesday. Tehran warned it would destroy the vital civilian infrastructure of any Gulf state that supported any operation to seize its territory and specifically pointed to the U.A.E.
“They could step into this war only to face a more aggressive Iran, continue to absorb hits to critical infrastructure and potentially investor confidence, and then struggle to rebuild ties with their neighbor, particularly if Trump elects to declare victory before reopening the strait or crippling Iran’s missile and drone capabilities,” Elizabeth Dent, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former official who focused on the Gulf at the Pentagon, said of the dilemma faced by countries in the region.
Iran has rained down more missiles and drones on the U.A.E.—almost 2,500 thus far—than it has aimed at any other country including Israel. Nonetheless, the U.A.E., like the rest of the Gulf region, had long tried to avoid defining itself as a combatant.
The Gulf officials said the country’s position has now changed. Before the war began Feb. 28, the U.A.E. saw Iran as a difficult neighbor with a logic to its political positions, one of the officials said. But the outbreak of the war revealed a very different regime that was trying to sow panic with strikes on hotels and airports in Dubai, the official said.
The Iranian strikes have reduced the U.A.E.’s air traffic and tourism, hurt its property market and led to a wave of furloughs and layoffs. They have also challenged the country’s fundamental selling point—that it is an oasis of peace in a rough neighborhood.
The U.A.E. has countered in part with tough financial measures. A notice on Dubai’s Emirates airline said Iranian nationals aren’t allowed to enter or transit the country, a step that followed government moves to close the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club Dubai.
The Emirates’ new posture is most evident in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a lifeline for its energy exports, shipping business and food. Gulf officials said the U.A.E. believes countries in Asia and Europe that are reluctant now would help clear the strait with the blessing of the U.N. Security Council.
Russia and China could veto the resolution, and France is proposing a different version. Even if the resolution fails, the U.A.E. would still be prepared to join the war effort, the Gulf officials said.
Iran is insisting on permanent oversight including a system of tolls. The Gulf states fear any diplomatic resolution would implicitly give Iran a formal say over the administration of the waterway and want it dislodged by military action first, the Arab officials said.
It isn’t clear that military action could open the strait. Any operation would require controlling not just the waterway but also the territory along its 100-mile length, potentially with ground troops, military analysts said.
“I don’t think we can do it,” said Rep. Adam Smith (D., Wash.), the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee. “All Iran has to do is be able to keep the strait under threat, which means they need one drone, they need one mine, they need one small suicide boat.”
Gulf states that support military action feel that the consequences of having a hostile neighbor controlling such a vital conduit make it worth the risk, the Arab officials said.
A decision to join the military campaign would send a public signal of Arab support for the war, said Bilal Saab, a fellow at Chatham House and a former Pentagon adviser on the Middle East. It would also open up additional options for operations against Iran and for attempting to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.A.E. has bases, a deep-water port at Jebel Ali and a location near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz that could be useful staging grounds for a U.S