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Syria Thread - Salty Stoltenberg edition Bernd 05/25/2023 (Thu) 08:51 [Preview] No. 50296
Previous threda: >>48765

A new thread, a new offensive.

In Sudan fights continue, it seems largely thanks to the Rapid Support Forces cease-fire violations. Millions of people is getting displaced, guess where will they end up? Now that the situation is Syria starts to get normalized and people from refugee camps can return. I wonder on who's payroll on RSF is.

In Syria the situation is much the same. Except now Israel and the Hezbollah fights over the Palestinians. The first one don't need those people, just the land under their feet, the second one just wants to kill Jews.

On the Ukraine the AFU's counteroffensive is roaring. I cannot hear it due to the liveuamap only showing Russian action. But at least the Deepstate map shows nothing as well. How will they be able to tell people that this much promised offensive is on? Well I saw one article writing about the "tactical encirclement of Bakhmut, now the Russians are in trouble". Anywhere where the front is not perfectly straight one can claim there is an encirclement, but okay. Whatabout Avdiivka?
Here's a cool article from Reuters contemplating about the capture of Bakhmut.
Don't worry they establish right at the beginning U.S. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and NATO alliance head Jens Stoltenberg, and all the western experts say it's nothingburger. And they are right in a way, the high ground at Chasiv Yar and the ridge which separates Bakhmut from the chain of towns with Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are more important. But since god knows how many Ukrainian fighters were torn into pieces (I guesstimate it between 25K and 100K, maybe I'll make a post about how I reached this) Bakhmut was a very important battle.

Bernd 05/25/2023 (Thu) 20:54 [Preview] No.50298 del
(381.36 KB 1200x675 878341_ukranok.jpg)
Kárpáthír is a Hungarian language newspaper from Kárpátalja. They usually have more first hand news than Hungarian papers in Hungary, who take articles from them.
This one reports about a PoW exchange, soldiers fought at Bakhmut. Notable snippets:
- 106 Ukrainian soldiers were freed.
- The article uses the term honvéd = home-defender/patriot for the private ranked soldiers like it is used in the Hungarian Defence Forces.
- 68 of them were recorded as Missing in Action.
- oldest is 58, youngest is 21
- no news on how many Russians were given.

Bernd 05/26/2023 (Fri) 18:51 [Preview] No.50300 del
>Well I saw one article writing about the "tactical encirclement of Bakhmut, now the Russians are in trouble".
Clearly both the journalist and the intended readers never look at frontline maps on their own. It bears noting that months before they finished the battle, the Russians got very close to Khromove and Ivanivske and placed the supply roads under fire control, many commented that it was getting encircled. And yet the city's defenders didn't collapse from a lack of supplies and reinforcements, presumably they drove through the dirt roads in the middle. Where there's a will, there's a way.

This imminent Ukrainian offensive (just as Russian victory in Bakhmut, which was "imminent" for months) lost a big opportunity when the battle ended. They could've attacked elsewhere while Wagner and other good Russian units were tied up in the city and unable to respond. They had plenty of time, too. Why didn't this happen? Presumably Ukrainian formations earmarked for the offensive were rotated into "irrelevant" Bakhmut. It was the Russians who attacked elsewhere (Vuhledar), though it ended in disaster. This is one of my two "success" metrics for Bakhmut and it's in favor of the Russians, the other metric is attrition, for which there are wildly different interpretations.

>Don't worry they establish right at the beginning U.S. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and NATO alliance head Jens Stoltenberg, and all the western experts say it's nothingburger. And they are right in a way, the high ground at Chasiv Yar and the ridge which separates Bakhmut from the chain of towns with Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are more important. But since god knows how many Ukrainian fighters were torn into pieces (I guesstimate it between 25K and 100K, maybe I'll make a post about how I reached this) Bakhmut was a very important battle.
Back in December, Zelensky told the American Congress that Bakhmut is Ukraine's "stronghold in the east" and the fight "will change the trajectory of our war". So the city is relevant when it can generate more weapons deliveries and irrelevant when it doesn't anymore.

Bernd 05/27/2023 (Sat) 09:15 [Preview] No.50301 del
Russia is tacticly encriclementing Ukriane.
>which was "imminent" for months
Due to mud there is no real offensives in spring on the South Russian steppes. It had to be imminent for the reasons you wrote to drum up more deliveries. And people get disinterested if they don't hear something exciting constantly.
>irrelevant when it doesn't anymore.
Well relevance is temporal either way. Many irrelevant places in history was made relevant for the time of a battle. Not everything can be fought at Stalingrad.

Bernd 05/27/2023 (Sat) 15:14 [Preview] No.50303 del
Prigozhin said something interesting about the figures of the battle of Bakhmut.

He says he recruited 50,000 convicts of which 20% died, so 10k, and that roughly that number of contract PMCs died as well, so 20k all up. He then says a further 20% were wounded(which he states means unable to perform combat duties for 3 months or more). So another 20k or less, considering that he didn't state how many contract PMCs there were but I doubt there were more than there were convicts.

So 20,000 dead and around 20,000 wounded. Though this does not account for Russian army losses but they didn't do the brunt of the fighting there.

Against this he says the Ukrainians lost 50,000 dead and around 50,000-70,000 wounded.

It's hard to know what to make of this, admitting 20,000 dead does seem pretty honest though, I think that the Wagner casualty figures are accurate at least.

Bernd 05/27/2023 (Sat) 17:43 [Preview] No.50304 del
(115.99 KB 900x568 urutu ambulance.jpg)
Ukraine wants 450 Guarani APCs from Iveco's Brazilian factory. For purely humanitarian reasons, as an armored ambulance for evacuating civilians and wounded fighters. 450 armored ambulances. Back in September they wanted an equivalent number of regularly armed personnel carriers to carry personnel.

This deal is unlikely to be approved because Lula has upheld Bolsonaro's refusal to sell any kind of weapons to Ukraine. Now there's an element of emotional blackmail:
>If there is a rejection this time, Brazil may compromise its image in the eyes of the international community, since it is not a sale of military equipment that is in question.

Bernd 05/27/2023 (Sat) 18:01 [Preview] No.50305 del
I dunno about Prigo. He talks lotta bs. Probably he knows it well that everything what he says will be printed, so he just throws out whatever comes to his mind.

The battle went on for about 9 months. I'm not sure about the start, Wikipee says 2022 August 1st, the first screenshots of the livemap I made are from 3rd and 7th, and the situation is picrel, and just at Sept. ~15th when they reached the outskirt of Bakhmut (picrel #3). On average the minimum that both side lost is 100/day. One question is this "loss" includes KIA, MIA, WIA, POW?
Here is Mediazona again:
They count deaths which can be verified from various sources. According to this, PMCs lost ~1500 and recruited prisoners ~4000 since the start of the war. Lost as dead. So even if they can't verify half, that is only 3000+8000. Way below what Prigo says. And way way below what Western "experts" say.

Bernd 05/27/2023 (Sat) 18:13 [Preview] No.50306 del
They'll get ambulance F-16s and they'll get over it.

Bernd 05/27/2023 (Sat) 19:02 [Preview] No.50307 del
Here are some youtube channel to look into:
Defense Asia Politics:
Weeb Union:
NWE War Reports:
As far as I know they are skeptical towards the claims of Western mainstream media.

Denys Davydov:
I think I linked a video of his related to the broken Leopard 2. He is pro-Ukrainian. I assume he himself is Ukrainian.

Now that post a list I should include these two as well:

Bernd 05/29/2023 (Mon) 17:51 [Preview] No.50309 del
So. My first impressions:
- DPA (uh i switched up two words): hard to listen (especially Slavic place names), he has wider range of topics on his main channel;
- WU: kinda shallow, but perhaps it's just the lack of hapenings and info these days;
- NWE: not bad.
One of these - sadly don't remember which, I dont care that much to look up - said: all these fucking maps, it would be nice if Ukrainians wouldn't call their own attacks as Russian attack (referring to all the red assault signs on the map). Heh.
- DD: he is very much Ukrainian to the point where he is willing to say outright lies like Hungary does not give humanitarian aid either - which makes me think what untruth are also told. This doesn't sit well with me. On the plus side he does make good points sometimes, and is quick to call out the other side's bs. He is motivated. One more good thing, since it's his mother tongue he reads and translates fluently everything right from any cyrillic - other channels struggle kek.

Bernd 05/29/2023 (Mon) 17:53 [Preview] No.50310 del
Ah I found it in recent video, Defense Politics Asia said: the Ukro def ministry calls their own offensives Russian offensives.

Bernd 05/29/2023 (Mon) 20:07 [Preview] No.50311 del
Tensions rising in Kosovo. 20 Hungarian "peacekeepers" got hurt when beating protesters.

Bernd 05/30/2023 (Tue) 15:02 [Preview] No.50315 del
That's not that different, Prigo said 10,000 convicts, so that would only be 2k more. The 3,000 PMCs is a lot less but then Mediazon has a category called N/A which lists 5,000 killed, maybe PMCs make up a large amount of that.

It is interesting that convicts make up 17% of Russian casualties now. More than any other group apart from N/A.

Bernd 05/30/2023 (Tue) 15:09 [Preview] No.50316 del
The Ukrainians launched several drones at Moscow(I have heard 10), most were shot down but they damaged two residential buildings.

Like the ground raid done not long ago nothing was achieved. But, they both could be probing attacks designed to gauge Russian defences.
Though I think that whatever the case it's pretty silly. Ukraine should not give the Russians a reason to feel threatened or a reason to feel that they need to push the war further than they otherwise would. They should focus on making the war as costly as possible on the battlefield.

Bernd 05/30/2023 (Tue) 16:23 [Preview] No.50317 del
There was a previous "drone" attack which were called a false flag operation. One of the reason that was cited, that this kinda provocation only good for Moscow.

Bernd 05/30/2023 (Tue) 18:23 [Preview] No.50318 del
The difference between Russia and Western Europe:
- In Russia, the top politicians own the large economic factors so they steer the country they can make the most profit.
- In WEurope, the large economic factors own the top politicians so they steer the country they can make the most profit.

Bernd 06/01/2023 (Thu) 18:29 [Preview] No.50319 del
The. First. Trailer. Of. An. Offensive. Ever.

Bernd 06/02/2023 (Fri) 16:46 [Preview] No.50320 del
The two usual map I visit (live and deepstate) are useless now.
DPA says Ukrainian's are attacking towards Kreminna, while Russians south of them along the Donetsk river. There is also another Ukrainian attack is going on north of Svatove (Kupiansk front). He cites "neutral sources and Russian official reports".
Damn just checked and he releases lots of videos. They are short. He also says Chechens went to Marinka to fight.

Bernd 06/02/2023 (Fri) 18:57 [Preview] No.50321 del
Russians took out strategic traffic light in Kiev with a precision strike.

Bernd 06/03/2023 (Sat) 15:36 [Preview] No.50322 del
And yet they won't give us a release date.

Bernd 06/03/2023 (Sat) 18:14 [Preview] No.50323 del
They really have to show something because there is no spectacular changes on map, and they don't disclose their operation. So Western public see nothing in return their investment.
Some Ukrainian made drone dronestrikes on Moscow, but that doesn't really count.

Bernd 06/03/2023 (Sat) 19:46 [Preview] No.50324 del
(142.26 KB 1241x1754 лол кек.png)
torposting test

Bernd 06/03/2023 (Sat) 19:48 [Preview] No.50325 del

Bernd 06/05/2023 (Mon) 15:25 [Preview] No.50329 del
(2.11 MB 2550x4194 isw-2023-06-04.png)
In most recent videos DPA reports Ukrainian offensive on a wide front in that corner in the south, from the salient in East Zaporozhia at Velyka Novosilka, to West Donetsk up to Marinka (where Russians crawling forward), probably in the direction of Mariupol. Supporting this maneuver other attacks were launched, like at Avdiivka, but up to Kupiansk there are some probing attacks. For now.
The easiest if I link the videos (as a reference point too):
The third video is the most important.
It's just started essentially so no results yet.
ISW also noted considerable fights in the region of Velyka Novosilka yesterday. Picrel is from the most recent report of theirs at the moment. Perhaps there will be more tomorrow. (The usual maps I check are useless now.)

Bernd 06/05/2023 (Mon) 16:16 [Preview] No.50330 del
There is some footage surfacing of an attack in the Zapro region that seems to have failed. So it must be on a broader front as in some cases they appear to have taken ground.

The Ukrainians might have abandoned an AMX 10 somewhere along the front as well.
I would say once we see Western armour employed that is where and when the offensive will be, though this is an AMX 10 so not really armour.

Bernd 06/05/2023 (Mon) 17:39 [Preview] No.50331 del
Ukraine Defense Ministry reports advances around Bakhmut.
I think they report successes and hush up failures - which they write off as repelled Russian attacks.
Also they want to draw attention to this. Either simply for the success, or because they want less attention on elsewhere.
It makes sense to attack at Bakhmut (too), since operations just recently finished, the hold on the front is the less solidified. If I were the Russians I would have a stable defense line behind the Bakhmutka river. That is basically what they had ~9 months ago.
Heh, the CNN has to write articles about the strategically important Bakhmut now.

They have open flat terrain there (unlike the hilly region around Bakhmut), must be hard.
>Western armour employed
My bet is they hold off with that. Destroyed ones are bad PR. They are heavy, I'm not sure about the infrastructure and the ground. If Ukrainians can get results they'll parade some Leo 2-s in recaptured towns as they roll in. Well that's a way to employ them.

Bernd 06/05/2023 (Mon) 20:25 [Preview] No.50333 del

Bernd 06/06/2023 (Tue) 02:28 [Preview] No.50334 del
The Ukrainians still control a village in Belgorod. It's interesting that they have not been pushed out or retreated.

That's why I follow pro Russian and Pro Ukrainian telegram channels, they often say opposite things. The Pro Ukraine side is saying that everything is going great and they are taking back land, the Pro Russian side says they are failing to make progress and losing a lot of equipment.
On that, the Pro Russian's state that the Ukrainian losses are quite heavy and that it includes leopards(but I have seen no proof yet). Two more AMX 10s were abandoned though.

Bernd 06/06/2023 (Tue) 08:52 [Preview] No.50335 del
Evil Russians blew up Kakhovka Dam because they just destroy mindlessly, and want people suffer from the flood downstream.
Luckily their evil plan is backfired and they flooded themselves. Also due to the lower levels of water in the reservoir the Ukrainians will have easier time to conduct river crossing operations at Energodar and the NPP.
Really hammering their own fingers these stupid Russians.

Bernd 06/06/2023 (Tue) 11:41 [Preview] No.50336 del
Vidrel has to be somewhere in length.
I think the bullheaded idiot got enough of Prigo's shitposting and when drunk he decided he'll show who is the boss.

If they have no reason, they feel good there.
>have not been pushed
Maybe they can't. I would think it is important to show the integrity of the border there is impregnable.
>telegram channels,
They usually need registration to Telegram which I won't do.

Bernd 06/06/2023 (Tue) 17:51 [Preview] No.50337 del
The water level of the reservoir up stream will lower but it's still going to be a huge body of water. But, the flooding will widen and deepen the river down stream which is the area around Kherson and where it's easier to cross. So it makes a Ukrainian attack much harder.

However, I have heard that this will cause problems with Crimea's water supply.

You would think that an officer would behave better than this but apparently not in Slavic armies.

Bernd 06/06/2023 (Tue) 17:52 [Preview] No.50338 del
I'm thinking of Energodar. Doesn't that need water?

Bernd 06/06/2023 (Tue) 19:57 [Preview] No.50340 del
The Dnieper is a major river, still it's easier to cross at it's original length, than the reservoir's. Behing the reservoir Russians barely have any fortification.
I feel questions arising about the terrain which I have no reply. How steep the banks of the reservoir? How long will take to dry those out? How long it will take the flood to subside? How long until the ground will be in passable condition (again drying)?
>Crimea's water supply.
I heard about that too. I know one issue was Ukrainians blocking water supply to Crimea. They still got by.
Plus the reservoir was there just holding water, after they created it, the Dnieper just flow through, the water that went in, went out. Not sure how much it played in reality. Just because the media writes about, it perhaps just noise. It would be good to look stuff up, but now the pages in any websearch are loud by this dam thing.
>Slavic armies.
In commie times most of the officers were aggressive blockheads only able to guzzling booze and shouting incomprehensibly. This proud tradition survived in the armies of the post-commie states. This is true to the Central Eastern Euro countries to some extent and worse and worse as we go further East. The NATO "advisors" have problems with this on the Ukraine, but noone advises the Russian army so they have to overcome this by themselves.

Bernd 06/07/2023 (Wed) 02:32 [Preview] No.50341 del
Not a Leopard but it's said a PZ 2000 was destroyed. Hard to identify it definitively from the video.

I don't think I have seen or heard about a PZ 2000 being destroyed before. There are videos coming out of Krabs and Paladins being destroyed all the time but not PZ 2000s.

Bernd 06/07/2023 (Wed) 02:35 [Preview] No.50342 del
I guess we will have to wait to see how far the water level goes down upstream and if there is a Ukrainian attack upstream.

Bernd 06/07/2023 (Wed) 11:21 [Preview] No.50343 del
Russians started to pound at the shore just opposite Energodar.
New video by Colonel Reisner:

I'm picking up some info about the dam and the irrigation in Crimea.
The water level in the reservoir was high. But how much that matters? Dunno. But it is noted that the dam got damaged to some extent - and that the dam got no maintenance since the start of the war. I assume the water level was within the norms for the dam in it's usual condition. Could the damage and neglect weaken it enough to give way for the pressure?
As for the irrigation, I found this snippet in the talk of the Wikipee article. In 2014 Ukrainians stopped the water supply and by 2017 they dammed up the canal too. This was the situation till 2022. Perhaps Crimea can do a couple of years without that water. This is another question.

Bernd 06/07/2023 (Wed) 17:36 [Preview] No.50344 del
(64.48 MB 1280x720 2023-06-07 18.16.12.mp4)
Another video of a Ukrainian attack being attacked. This one was South of Donetsk.

Nice, he has a new shirt. I'll watch it tomorrow, I'm about to go to bed.

Yes, they can and have dealt with not being connected to the dam. But it hampers their agricultural industry. There's going to be a lot of angry farmers in Crimea this year.

Bernd 06/08/2023 (Thu) 17:50 [Preview] No.50363 del
Well this is it. The first footage of Leopard 2s in combat in Ukraine.
It looks like at least one was destroyed...

It seems like the counter offensive has started.

Bernd 06/08/2023 (Thu) 17:50 [Preview] No.50364 del
Heard Leo 2-s at Zaporozhya, the pixels looked like such.

Here is a cool map, created by a Finnish bloke:
If we go by this map, at Velyke Novosilka we can expect gains by Ukraine, simply from the fact that the line of fortification is some kms behind the front. But this also means Ukraine can't be glad for the gains until they punched that line.

Bernd 06/08/2023 (Thu) 17:53 [Preview] No.50365 del
>counter offensive has started.
You mean the Russians counter-offensed the Ukrainian offensive?

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 07:34 [Preview] No.50367 del
Deepstate finally changed the direction of the arrows at Bakhmut.
And now that we are talking about Bakhmut, better to post that Finnish map because why not.

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 15:10 [Preview] No.50369 del
I hear the attack at Velyke Novosilka stopped without any gain, and the weight is now on the attack south of Orikhov, in Tokmak direction. Here were the Leopard 2s.
Lotsa fighting at Bakhmut. Not sure by whom in which direction. UMoD says Russians are attacking, but apparently AFU gains territory, and pro-Ukie sources also say they are on the offense.

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 15:45 [Preview] No.50370 del
Offensive is hard against prepared positions. We knew they'll lose Leos. It was no question.

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 17:37 [Preview] No.50371 del
It looks like they lost a lot.
This is a longer version of what you posted, there are possibly 5 lost here. The one in your clip plus the one at the very end are definitely leopards, plus there is one in a tree line with a line sweeper that might be one. And there are two other leopards that look like they are in positions ready to fire through a gap in a tree line, maybe they were abandoned like that but maybe they later withdrew, can't say for sure.

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 17:40 [Preview] No.50372 del
(11.93 MB 1280x720 IMG_3914.MP4)
Also here are two taken out by ATGMs.

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 17:47 [Preview] No.50373 del
And another.

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 17:50 [Preview] No.50374 del
So all up they might have lost 8 just in these videos. As well as quite a few Bradleys. This has to be the offensive proper now.

Bernd 06/09/2023 (Fri) 19:23 [Preview] No.50376 del

They lost quite a lot armoured and non-armoured vehicles. They are ofc say nothing, so only Russian sources and guesswork remains.
I do agree - and many I think, analysts and enthusiasts, youtubers and such animals - that this is it.
Prigo dropped the capital punishment bomb and some as well. Couple days ago. He says Bakhmut will be retaken in 1,5 month. Willyoam analyses the talk.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 05:37 [Preview] No.50377 del
According to the leaked US intel from last thread 12 Brigades were generated for the counter offensive. 9 provided for and equipped by the west, 3 by Ukraine. I'll just list them here anyway.

Of those 9 western Brigades.

The first one,can't see the name
90 BMP -Trained By(TB) PL and CZ
13 T64 -TB UKR
17 Tanks(not stated), probably they would be a similar model to the T64 for logistics and training purposes
12 AS-90 -TB GBR
10 2S1 -TB UKR


99 M2(Bradley) -TB US
28 T55S -TB UKR
12 M109 -TB US
12 D-30 -TB UKR

33 BDE

90 MaxxPro -TB UKR
14 Leopard 2A6 -TB GER
18 Leopard 2A4 -TB CAN and POL
12 M119 -TB US

21 BDE

30 Senator -TB UKR
20 Bulldog -TB UKR
21 Husky -TB UKR
10 M113 - TB UKR
30 T64 - TB UKR
10 FH70 - TB UKR

32 BDE

90 MaxxPro - TB UKR
10 T72 -TB UKR
20 Tanks(not stated)
12 D30 -TB UKR

37 BDE

30 Mastiff/Husky -TB UKR
30 MAstiff/Wolf -TB UKR
Can't read it - TB UKR
14 AMX 10 - TB FR
16 Tanks(not stated)- TB UKR
12 D30

118 BDE

90 M113 - TB BEL, FR, SLOV
28 T72 - TB UKR
6 M109 - TB US
8 FH70 - TB UKR
Can't read

117 BDE

28 Vikings - TB UKR
20 Patria Pasi - TB FIN
10 M113
Can't read - TB UKR
31 PT91 - TB UKR
12 D30 - TB UKR
? AS90 - TB GBR

82 BDE

90 Stryker - TB US
40 Marder - TB GER
14 Challenger - TB GBR
24 M119 - TB US

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 05:56 [Preview] No.50378 del
So it's already borked. We have seen Leopard 2s with Bradleys but Bradleys are only in 47 BDE which has T55S instead. I guess the information is old, things change. But it looks like 47 BDE was involved as well as 33 BDE, or one of these two at least. But anyway, they have 99 Bradleys and lost about a dozen visually confirmed, so about ten percent or one Company.

They have lost about 8 Leopards visually confirmed, so about one companies worth but I think they were split so not actually one company like it may have been with the Bradleys.
But they have probably 32 Leopard in these units, I say probably because there are 53 tanks that they had not decided on yet but I think those would be Soviet types.
So if they did just have 32 Leopards they may have lost about a quarter of them already.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 07:03 [Preview] No.50379 del
I couldn't recall it correctly if it was 6+3 or 9+3.
Good list. I think this is the leaked docu.
HistoryLegends talks about the units participating in the Velike Novosilka attack. He guesses they were beefed up territorial units while the actual strike group is further back north.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 08:07 [Preview] No.50380 del
(94.26 KB 631x340 2023-06-10-oryx.png)
Big problem for Ukraine is that all the info comes from Russia and they can't put anything forward to counter it. Despite that "Shh Campaign" if they had something - like at Bakhmut - they already had declared it because this does not look good at all for Ukraine.
I don't think they have much choice but plough on how Wagner did, have to change tactics.
There is a very interesting criticism again in Willyoam's most recent. Whoever wrote that he puts the blame on NATO, for providing faulty equipment and training, without accountability. I dunno if the equipment is faulty, but getting bunched up like in the videos above was a stupid move and is the same mistake what Russians did at the start of the war.
Oryx is collecting/documenting vehicle losses during the war.
They have this website: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/
And Twitter: https://nitter.net/oryxspioenkop
This is particular tweet in picrel: https://nitter.net/oryxspioenkop/status/1667301470260043777
What they don't seem to note (or I just can't find) that what equipment was destroyed on which day. So no chronology. On their site like here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html each has a link where the event was reported and dates can be gathered from there.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 10:19 [Preview] No.50381 del
Hungarian news portals only talk about the dam, and that the offensive is surely started, they are doing probing attacks, and drawing out Russians from positions. Even in Fidesz and Govt. close media nothing about the Leos.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 15:20 [Preview] No.50384 del
All these destroyed Leo's aren't just one scene from different angles?
I think Ukrainians will reconsider, and recover. They did not commit that much yet. They probably also do artillery strikes, and chisel Russians away bit by bit. I think we should give it another week before burying this offensive.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 16:39 [Preview] No.50385 del
A Leopard got taken out by a Lancet.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 16:49 [Preview] No.50386 del
Not so much the angle but I thought that >>50370 and >>50373 were separate because of the second road lane in the second video but apparently it might be the same and this is from after wards when a Ukrainian force of Bradleys tried to get to the Leopard 2 and the other Bradleys and lost even more of them(and must have turned up the paddock quite a bit).

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 16:59 [Preview] No.50387 del
Three More Leopard 2s were hit by Lancets. But we don't know if they were destroyed or not as this is from the drones perspective.

Western MBTs are quite large but they are also quite long and flat, I wonder how much of a difference this makes in spotting them and hitting them, particularly with things like drones.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 17:09 [Preview] No.50388 del
All look stationary and abandoned. I bet all the other scrap was towed away but the Leos because they just too damn heavy, and now Russians making videos by flying at them.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 20:33 [Preview] No.50390 del
Btw, those guys are rolling through a minefield (except that road/cleared patch they threading on) deployed by Ukrainians. They move through their own fortified defensive lines towards the front.

Bernd 06/10/2023 (Sat) 22:24 [Preview] No.50392 del
So they fucked by their own minefields?
Hilarious if true.

Bernd 06/11/2023 (Sun) 07:12 [Preview] No.50393 del
The event was geolocated at Mala Tokmachka behind the line of contact. Russians did not deploy mines there. Ukrainians have extensive fortifications with "engineered confinements" all along the front.
They struck at them with artillery while going through the field to the front. It had to be Ukrainian minefield.

Bernd 06/11/2023 (Sun) 13:30 [Preview] No.50394 del
No I think these were previously disabled/abandoned Leo2s which were taken out by drones to render them FUBAR.

Bernd 06/11/2023 (Sun) 14:42 [Preview] No.50395 del
Another scandal is generated.
The story goes soemthing liek:
- soldiers are drafted from Kárpátalja into the AFU
- they got captured by Russians
- the Russian Orthodox Church intervenes and helps to move the PoWs to Hungary
- they still have the PoW status, but they essentially live free, the wounded are treated in hospitals, according to international law, PoWs can be moved to whatever country
- when asked by journos Ukraine said they did not know about this anything
- now they warn that the PoWs will be interviewed and will be say bad things about Ukraine because the Russian Orthodox Church bartered a deal and this was their price for allowing the PoWs to Hungary
- now Ukraine says (again) that Hungary is evil

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 02:40 [Preview] No.50396 del
Maybe, it's hard to say. They are not moving but then tanks are not going to be moving all the time so that does not say anything definitive. Some of them have hatches open which would lead me to think they are abandoned but again, it's not definitive they could be open for other reasons.

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 02:41 [Preview] No.50397 del
Things are just getting worse and worse for the Leopards...

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 02:47 [Preview] No.50398 del
The Ukrainians have taken some ground but not much.
Anyway, they posted this video. It's interesting as the Ukrainians in it look like they know what they are doing, they are moving cohesively, communicating well and they are handling their weapons well.

Nope, I can't post it. It's * minutes long maybe that is why.

Well here is the Telegram link. That's all I can do.


Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 02:48 [Preview] No.50399 del
>* minutes long

Sorry I'm an idiot and pressed the caps button, I meant 8 minutes.

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 07:59 [Preview] No.50401 del
These are new ones 100%
Are there any news they getting more?
It was sure they'll lose some eventually. Perhaps this is too quick rate. Also problem if they can recover them - when something is to recover - they have to haul those back to Polan for fix.

That land is there to be lost.
Yesterday I read some news Russians are retreating both in organized and dis-organized fashion, the latter ones sometimes through their own minefields.

It would be interesting to see the lines of Ukrainian fortifications. But even Russians don't disclose that apparently. (They sure have satellite imagery of them).
Video needs to login to Telegram.
>can't post it
Got error message? What was it? What is the file size? You should try uploading on .org, or disable JS and post like that.

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 10:34 [Preview] No.50402 del
Wikipedia says they will get 130.

90 Leopard 2A4 with 30 of those being already delivered
10 Stridsvagn 122(Leopard 2A5 equivalent), pending delivery
21 Leopard 2A6, all delivered
3 BPz3 Büffel ARV
And 6 Leopard 2R, pending delivery(well we know that's out of date)

But it's impossible to know what the real numbers will be and what is happening behind the scenes, this is just what Wikipedia says had been announced so far.

It's also impossible to know how many are being used right now as >>50377 is out of date, the Brigade that is equipped with Bradleys is meant to have the T-55S, not Leopards but we know they do have Leopards.
Also, if the crews survive they can be re equipped with Leopards that are newly arrived as well.

There are videos of Russians running on foot across fields in retreat. Not sure how organised or disorganised that is, who knows when it comes to Russians.

The Error I got was connection failed when I tried to post the video, yes I am on .org. No I am not going to hack my computer to disable JS.

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 11:09 [Preview] No.50403 del
Hmm. Plus the Challengers and the Abrams.
If you use scriptblocking addons you can turn JS off for endchan. That helps with large files.

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 16:02 [Preview] No.50404 del
(21.85 MB 1136x640 Vid 222.mp4)
Look like >>50385 was abandoned.
This video says the tanks were abandoned and the second one seems to be this tank.

Bernd 06/12/2023 (Mon) 19:41 [Preview] No.50406 del
>the Brigade that is equipped with Bradleys is meant to have the T-55S, not Leopards but we know they do have Leopards.
They also could form a battle group, and use a Leo battalion as a detachment under the command of another unit. I'm not sure why would they do that.

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 02:50 [Preview] No.50407 del
This is what Ukraine has taken back so far. Although the Russians have launched a counter attack and taken back Makarivka.

I think the probably just replaced the T55Ss with the Leopards. It made no sense to me why they would pair their best IFVs with their worst tanks.

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 03:16 [Preview] No.50409 del
Thinking about the big picture. Apparently Ukraine still has a lot of brigades in reserve, and presumably more than the Russians. Attacks so far might not go anywhere, but if they get the Russians to concentrate their attention on one part of the front and commit their reserves, this will open them to attacks elsewhere. It'll take a long time, though. No blitzkrieg to the Black Sea anytime soon.

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 08:33 [Preview] No.50410 del
Then they had to replace the crew too, a T-55 driving loicence ain't a Leo2 one.

What Ukraine don't have is equipment, and lots of troops are in training. I think they should have soldiers under training in the West, it's not like they got trained some brigades and finished, it should go as a continuous cycle.
>get the Russians to concentrate their attention on one part of the front and commit their reserves
The Russians should have local reserves and strategic ones. And local local reserves. At this stage, when they are holding the forward positions, the outposts they probably launch counter-thrusts with the local local ones.
But I do agree it's dangerous to let forces pinned down at one are when Ukies can strike elsewhere. And I also don't know if they'll let it or not. Or it's avoidable at all.
>No blitzkrieg to the Black Sea anytime soon.
That is a pretty safe bet.

I was browsing militaryland's deployment and "operational sectors" map yesterday. Couple of things to note, probably not the most interesting ones, and perhaps not even important ones. But here we go.
Yesterday there was a mechanized grouping of 6 brigades north of the reservoir. Now only 2.
At Siversk there should be a strong grouping - I heard, but there is a hole. There a was strike from that direction towards Soledar, which was stopped. Militaryland notes a mountain brigade there or whatever.
At Velike Novosilka, towards the east that tank brigade wasn't there, but a bit further north behind the lines with that other one.

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 10:26 [Preview] No.50411 del
(665.84 KB 1126x845 considerthefollowing2.png)
Good weather: Russian advantage in the air (drones, choppers, airplanes)
Bad weather: no Russian advantage in the air

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 17:18 [Preview] No.50412 del
>I think the probably just replaced the T55Ss with the Leopards
HistoryLegends' latest offers some information on them, and supports your opinion.

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 18:32 [Preview] No.50413 del
They should've started this during the rains, then. Mud wouldn't matter as much for a slow advance.

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 19:40 [Preview] No.50414 del
It rains time to times. Apparently when they made the advancements at Velike Novosilka it rained. Summer isn't that dry, storms happen regularly. The spring is muddy due to snow melting, they can have quite thick snow cover. Making tanks even slower for Russian artillery, drone strikes, ATGMs, helicopters is bad tactics.

Bernd 06/13/2023 (Tue) 20:45 [Preview] No.50415 del
Reporting from Ukraine. Pro-Ukrainian channel, less funny than Davydov. Racks up quite a lot of views.

Bernd 06/14/2023 (Wed) 07:41 [Preview] No.50416 del
Real Reporter's interview with a soldier (supposedly not a "crisis actor") who had a convo with in a previous video half year ago.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=t-VUAeRMGQU [Embed]

Bernd 06/15/2023 (Thu) 03:40 [Preview] No.50418 del
(25.66 MB 1920x1080 Naruto Music.mp4)
There are Syrians in the 98th Guards Airbourne Division.

Also, somebody put Naruto music over one of those videos of artillery strikes.

Bernd 06/15/2023 (Thu) 03:48 [Preview] No.50419 del
It's this OST.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=XYG_p8L1fDk [Embed]

Bernd 06/15/2023 (Thu) 05:43 [Preview] No.50420 del
>There are Syrians in the 98th Guards Airbourne Division.
Just repaying the favour. They are at Bakhmut? Fighting along Wagner as usual.
Good chance the Russian army have bodies from the *stans too.
My main problem with all these war footage that they frequently add unnecessary music.

Bernd 06/15/2023 (Thu) 08:10 [Preview] No.50421 del
I'm not sure where they are.

Same, this is just drone footage though so it has no audio. It's much worse when they put it over things which actually have audio.

Bernd 06/15/2023 (Thu) 14:49 [Preview] No.50423 del
They might be at Bakhmut. At least the Deepstate map places a regiment from that division there. Militaryland paints a different picture.
Were there more maps with unit placment?

Now that we are at Militaryland, the quesiton of the Leopard 2s. The 47th Mechanized Brigade (which has the Leos instead of the T-55s) differs from the other mechanized brigades in its unit composition. Besides the three mechanized battalions, and a tank battalion, it also includes an "assault battalion". What really is this, no info about it. Does it include more tanks? Or some different armoured vehicles, some heavy equipment?

Bernd 06/16/2023 (Fri) 08:13 [Preview] No.50427 del
Lotsa blue disks today. I think Ukrainian Ministry of Defense started to get chatty and told about offensive action. I doubt these maps use the publications of Russian MoD.

Bernd 06/17/2023 (Sat) 08:27 [Preview] No.50435 del
Lull at Orikhov. Ukrainian attacks west of Donetsk - liveuamap shows as Russian attack, but we know better now.

Bernd 06/17/2023 (Sat) 08:37 [Preview] No.50436 del
New drama.
Some American lobbists pushing at Biden to make Ukraine join NATO for it will stop the war - so they think, or want make us believe they think that. Stoltenberg made statements that NATO is supporting the plan. This is obviously insane, even Northern Hungarian politicians said they'll veto this bs. Ofc for Stoltenberg it's easy to make such comments, since he knows very well, that couple of sane countries will veto the vote when it comes to that - so he can get some limelight and popularity among those who has know idea about anything and some Ukrainians.
I think we should vote yes just for the hilarity of it. GET THOSE NUKES FLYING!

Bernd 06/17/2023 (Sat) 08:50 [Preview] No.50437 del
(266.21 KB 1440x960 himars.jpeg)
(127.32 KB 750x370 trg-300-3-750x370.jpg)
Another drama.
A Republican politician, not sure if senator or congressman gave a statement that they're blocking Hungary from buying HIMARS' until Hungary accepts Sweden into NATO.
Turns out in 2021 the Hungarian Defence Forces started to look into rocket artillery, looked into couple of options, one of them was the US made HIMARS system, in 2023 February some people on behalf of HDF visited there. As far as Hungarian media can know there is no deal on the table, I read Turkey's offer was considered seriously (which would make sense, we have good relations, most likely cheap solution, also Turkey is on the Road and Belt; the TRG-300 Tiger/Kasirga MLRS was battle tested in Nagarno-Kharabakh - problem is half the range of HIMARS; they would just rust away anyway).

Tactical Nukes Bernd 06/19/2023 (Mon) 08:33 [Preview] No.50447 del
Talk about delivering tactical nukes to Ukraine is started.
For now only radical voices, but it will get into mainstream media to sow the seed of acceptance in the public opinion. But will it? We'll see.

Bernd 06/19/2023 (Mon) 13:57 [Preview] No.50448 del
The Israelites are in talks with two nations, one a European nation, Regarding the potential sale of 200 Merkava tanks.


There are numerous rumours surrounding this. Nothing concrete yet but the obvious connection is Ukraine. I have heard three stories, first is simply that they will be sold to a European country(Poland) and then handed from there to Ukraine, second is that they will be sold to Cyprus to replace soviet tanks in Cypriot service and those Soviet tanks will be given to the Ukrainians and the third story which is similar to the first is that the west plan to give Ukraine these tanks to prepare a new batch of troops for another offensive or to hold ground taken in this offensive.

Bernd 06/19/2023 (Mon) 18:55 [Preview] No.50451 del
Taking this from another Bernd.
It's a footage of a T-55 packed full with explosive and an RC and sent towards Ukrainian lines. Got disabled upon a minefield, then shot with a AT grenade.

Bernd 06/19/2023 (Mon) 19:07 [Preview] No.50452 del
NATO training is bad and insufficient...
NATO trainers have no experience in a war against an equal enemy. They have experience against insurgents, without artillery, air defense, air force, tanks, anything. They have experience in fighting from the position of power. They must have theoretical knowledge, but no practical one. So the training they give to Ukrainians is subpar.
The real significance in NATO training is that it can be done without the risk that a Russian rocket hits and kills a whole fucking company on spot. It is probably a learning experience for NATO on how to train large mass of troops in a relatively short period of time.

Bernd 06/19/2023 (Mon) 19:36 [Preview] No.50453 del
Israel don't sell stuff to Ukraine directly. Setting up proxies shouldn't be much problem.

Bernd 06/20/2023 (Tue) 02:22 [Preview] No.50454 del
It's hard to say, but this is not a new issue for them, the same thing happened with the Afghan forces they trained and the Iraqis and Saudis too.

I don't think that NATO doctrine and drill itself is bad or the issue, but I do wonder how much of that doctrine can be instilled in a fresh recruit who does not speak your language and is only being trained for a month or two.
And there is the nature of the recruit themselves, these are not recruited by a NATO army through their own recruitment process and they are not NATO soldiers, a NATO instructor is sent whoever he is send and he probably is not allowed to turn them back or fail them.

I doubt they are getting proper NATO training, instead they are getting an abridged and simplified version which they may or may not pick up due to the language barrier and quality of the individual recruit himself.

Bernd 06/20/2023 (Tue) 05:55 [Preview] No.50455 del
>And there is the nature of the recruit themselves, these are not recruited by a NATO army through their own recruitment process and they are not NATO soldiers

Bernd 06/20/2023 (Tue) 20:43 [Preview] No.50464 del
Quote from ISW's Assesment from June 18th
Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to reevaluate their tactics for future operations. Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an offensive over the next seven days.”[7]The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command reexamines tactics.[8] These reports are consistent with ISW’s recent observations of the scale and approach of localized Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern Ukraine.[9] ISW has previously noted that Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort.[10] Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

Liveuamap shows some attacks on behalf of AFU, so they haven't halted, they curbed the volume down (as Wall Street Journal was quoted).
NATO observers clearly see that things aren't going well, probably they go very badly. But they also note rightly that most of the prepared brigades aren't doing anything.
Anyway Ukraine tried to form armoured columns, ended with heavy losses. Then tried infantry on foot, ended with heavy losses. They did some decent maneuvering and flanking south of Velike Novosilka, but they suffered high losses.
They really need air cover and air defense. And even then the go still might remain very bumpy.

I was musing what'll happen on the long run, when they destroy all the foliage, all the tree and bush covers from their positions. Will it look like WWI with trenches running parallel with a nomansland in between?

Bernd 06/21/2023 (Wed) 03:16 [Preview] No.50466 del
>Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings
I agree, but that generally happens when they have achieved their objective and have the breathing room to reorganise and such.
The Ukrainians did not breach any of the defensive lines so I don't see this as a normal pause in operations but as a failure in their offensive. I don't think this marks the end of the offensive but it does not look good for them.

At the same time the British MOD has said in their report that the Russians are moving forces from the Dniper to Zaporyia and Bahkmut and it has even been said that they are renewing offensive actions in Northern Luhansk(not sure how true this is, if they are it seems to be minor so far).

I think airpower is overrated in this case. The Russians are fairly limited in what they can do with it as well so it's not a decisive factor in the war. It's just a supporting element like anything else and something that artillery and Himars can also do as well anyway. Well they can sling missiles at Kiev which other systems can't really do as well but that's strategic not operations and it's not really achieving much.

Bernd 06/21/2023 (Wed) 06:44 [Preview] No.50471 del
>The latest propaganda from Kiev suggests that the Ukrainian offensive will go on an "operational pause" while the NATO generals in their offices in Brussels "rethink" their strategy over a coffee and a pretzel/donut. They are worried that the Ukrainian army will not last very long at this attrition rate.

Bernd 06/21/2023 (Wed) 11:28 [Preview] No.50475 del
(446.13 KB 1907x847 zaporozhia-2023-06-21.png)
Trying to calculate/guess how many troops are participating in the fight directly on behalf of the Ukrainians at the three active sectors of the Zaporyozhia.

A. Kamyanska
- 130th Reconnaissance Battalion
- 128th Mountain Assault Brigade
And perhaps 8th Separate Battalion Aratta which is an intelligence unit, so not sure they count anyway.

B. Orikhov
- 118th Mechanized Brigade
- 47th Mechanized Brigade
And perhaps 11th Brigade of Ukrainian National Guard.

C. Velyka Novosilka
From the West:
- 74th Reconnaissance Battalion
Probably 23rd Mechanized Brigade, and
probably 3rd Tank Brigade
Towards South:
- 35th Marine Brigade
- 129th Territorial Defense Brigade
And perhaps 128th Territorial Defense Brigade
And perhaps 31st Mechanized Brigade
And perhaps Airborne Battalion, 25th Airborne Brigade
- 68th Jager Brigade
- 4th Tank Brigade
- 37th Marine Brigade

That's 8 brigades and couple of battalions pocket change, for sure.
Then 2 more brigades probably.
And 3 more brigades, and couple of battalions pocket change.
So about 13-14 brigades (if I group the battalions together).
But I'm just guessing which units are involved and many more are nearby and they could participate earlier, or just parts of them.
I'm not sure I want to count the artillery units there, although it's sure they are there to give support.
Anyway, one brigade is about 2000-4000 troop strong I think. But even on paper it can vary, in practice they are always less in a war than on paper. So let's say 3000 troops (I think the prepared brigades consist of ~3500 men, but tank brigades are less for sure*, and probably territorials too).
That's 24-42000 soldiers. Can this be right?

*Forbes article from 2022 Dec. says ~2000 are in the 1st Tank Brigade

Air force isn't just fighter jets though. Or the big bombers. Air force also the helicopters destroying targets from 5-10 kms away. Or transporting stuff and people. Russians can move more or less freely in the air over their zone of control.

Bernd 06/21/2023 (Wed) 12:07 [Preview] No.50476 del
Found this in historylegends video. Not sure where he got the data but he spends more time on this than me.
Marine Brigade: ~2000 troops
Territorial Defense Brigade: ~3500 troops
And adding the info from the Forbes article:
Tank Brigade: ~2000 troops
It is said that the Ukrainians organized 40000 troops into 12 divisions for the offensive (the 9 NATO and 3 home trained), one of them the 47th Mechanized Brigade. ~40000 / 12 = 3300-3500 soldiers.

Bernd 06/22/2023 (Thu) 06:37 [Preview] No.50483 del
So, no operational pause for now. AFU attacks everywhere. According to dunno who. Perhaps Russian MoD.

Bernd 06/22/2023 (Thu) 13:14 [Preview] No.50490 del
Seems that way, a new bunch of Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles showed up, including this which they say is a MARS II MLRS, there is also a destroyed tank they call a Leopard but it's not. It also seems like the Ukrainians are either attacking or counter attacking in northern Luhansk.

Also, Russians are attacking in Both the North towards Lyman and in the South in Zaporyia. The first video is the Ukrainians repelling a Russian attack in the North, the second is of them repelling(?) a Russian attack in the south. It seems the Russians are taking some ground in the North and may have taken back some ground in the South as well.
The Reason I questioned if the southern attack was actually repelled is because that was at Piathkhakny, which the Russians apparently are in control of now.

Bernd 06/22/2023 (Thu) 17:36 [Preview] No.50491 del
(393.56 KB 987x521 2023-06-22-orikhiv.png)
(1.00 MB 1662x772 piatykhatky-height.png)
Cope of the day: picrel #1. At least it goes well for the Ukrainians on map.

Here's an good article by Royal United Services Institute:
Written a week ago. Still true. Which is bad news for Ukraine.

While I was trying to look up brigade organization info and charts, I found this article on the same website:
>Estimates produced prior to 24 February 2022 suggested the TDF would be able to engage as many as 130,000 people (25 brigades of 150 battalions)
>25 brigades of 150 battalions
Which is 6 battalions per brigade in the Territorial Defense Brigades, as Historylegends says >>50476
After a while I thought it would be the easiest just to look at Militaryland's db about the units, and check their composition. There is nothing about the TDBs. Or I just did not search hard enough. So essentially I have this one source above about this.
I also found that TDBs are seriously lacking in equipment, they are little more than pure infantry formations, with some ATGMs. And since quite a few mechanized brigades formed earlier this year, the heavy weaponry had to go to those units.
So besides the infantry/rifle battalions they have (most likely neither motorized), each brigade has to have an HQ, and some form of medical, communication, and logistical units (companies perhaps). No artillery (perhaps each rifle battalion has a light mortar squad or two), no recon, no chemical and nuke warfare unit, or some fancy stuff like UAVs (unless they buy their own).
I also believe that some TBDs are better equipped and more formidable than others.

High ground both north and south of the village. It's comfortable for both side to just shoot into the settlement, and push out the one who has it. I heard the village change hands several times now. But eventually Ukrainians have try advancing further. Which will suck ofc, bad news for Ukraine again.

Bernd 06/23/2023 (Fri) 10:51 [Preview] No.50501 del
Prigozhin has been getting more and more scathing of the government.

>The Ministry of Defense is deceiving the public and telling the story that there was aggression on the part of Ukraine for 8 years, and they were going to attack us together with all of NATO. Ukraine did not attack the civilian population, only the positions of the Russian army

>No one killed 60 leopards, this is complete total nonsense, now the Russian army is retreating in the Zaporozhye, Kherson directions, - Prigozhin.
>The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pushing through the Russian army, we are washing ourselves with blood, no one gives reserves, there is no control.
>Zelensky, when he became president, was ready for agreements. All that had to be done was to get down from Mount Olympus, go and negotiate with him,
>What was the war for? The war was needed for Shoigu to receive a 'hero star'. The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war. The war was needed to install Medvedchuk as president of Ukraine.

I predict that he is going to fall out of a window or brutally stab himself to death while shaving in not long.
The Russian government has been trying to make third party militants sign contracts with the RU MOD, the Chechens have but Prigozhin kicked up a fuss about it and I don't think Wagner has yet.

Bernd 06/23/2023 (Fri) 11:26 [Preview] No.50502 del
Who sees his rants? If Russians that's a problem, if the Western audience then everything 100% a-okay.
I think all the NAFO bots watch these and come to the wrong consequences.

Bernd 06/23/2023 (Fri) 11:44 [Preview] No.50503 del
I saw this posted By Denys Davydov on his telegram(I don't follow him on Youtube), also other Ukrainian channels are posting about it too. Pro Russian channels are not posting about this latest rant but they have mentioned others and they are the ones talking about this contract issue.
But this is Telegram, your average Russian isn't go to know about it unless it comes up on the news.

Bernd 06/23/2023 (Fri) 12:44 [Preview] No.50504 del
>So besides the infantry/rifle battalions they have (most likely neither motorized)
Is there such a thing as a non-motorized military unit in a motorized society? It's always possible to requisition civilian vehicles.
>I also found that TDBs are seriously lacking in equipment, they are little more than pure infantry formations, with some ATGMs
So do they try to cram more infantry per kilometer of frontline, or do they rotate battalions more often?

Bernd 06/23/2023 (Fri) 12:44 [Preview] No.50505 del
Another reason why Prigo say these stuff, why he is so critical towards Russian govt. and military, he might tries to emphasize that his organization is a private military company, not an extension of Moscow, and available for (almost) any country to have contract with.

Bernd 06/23/2023 (Fri) 12:49 [Preview] No.50506 del
>Is there such a thing as a non-motorized military unit
Well the militaryland deployment map uses the "light infantry" icon for TDBs and not "motorized" or even "rifle" icon (these are used on the brigade composition page at certain units where it's appropriate).
>So do they try to cram more infantry per kilometer of frontline, or do they rotate battalions more often?
It seems they were mostly used as anchors to hold trenches and replace heavier units in this role, so those can go elsewhere and do more useful things. How the rotation is done I have no idea, did not really see any info on that, I did not looking for it either.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 02:48 [Preview] No.50507 del
(4.70 MB 720x1280 IMG_3577.MP4)
Wagner is staging a coup...

They posted a video showing the aftermath of a Wagner base hit by Russian rockets or they claim that is what it was anyway and now they are going in Russia from Ukraine and are in Rostov right now. They have come with heavy equipment including tanks as well.

Prigozhin said this
>Shoigu will be hanged on Red Square and will lie down in the mausoleum with Lenin – All patriots of Russia, real patriots of the country who know history, and not fans of a weak government that betrayed the interests of the state, take to the streets, we will find weapons. Tonight, we will solve the issue of traitors and criminals who have disgraced #Russia. Their names are Shoigu and Gerasimov

Somebody said this looked like it was pre-recorded just like they say the missile attack might be fake, so this might all be pre-planned.

As I said, they are in Rostov, this video is of Wagner soldiers at the outside of the Headquarters of the Southern Military district but they have also cordoned off other important buildings in Rostov too.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 02:56 [Preview] No.50508 del
Here is the same building from another angle in which you can see heavy equipment.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 07:02 [Preview] No.50509 del
>staging a coup
>in Rostov
They are in the wrong place to stage a coup.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 07:16 [Preview] No.50510 del
Silly Prigozhin

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 07:32 [Preview] No.50511 del
I bet it's for new recruitment ad.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 07:50 [Preview] No.50512 del
>“By taking Rostov military headquarters, this is the command centre that is in charge of what Russia calls the special operation in Ukraine, the Wagner chief is currently in charge of the war in Ukraine. This is very big,” Hashem said.
Hilarious. Machiavelli was right all along.
Prigo ofc never speaks against Putin himself. He was his chef or whatever, he gained his wealth because of him. And moving to Rostov instead of Moscow... Perhaps Shoigu was in Rostov?

>Zelenskyy [...] describing the actions of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin as a “counter-terrorist operation”.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 08:20 [Preview] No.50514 del
From same youtube channel (Michael Rossi Poli Sci):

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 08:49 [Preview] No.50515 del
And Putin's speech in telly. ML translated, picked up on Kohl.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 09:15 [Preview] No.50516 del
TschVK Wagner's camp got attacked with rockets by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF/AFRF/RAF whatever) on behalf of Shoigu Minister of Defence and Gerasimov Chief of the General Staff, both staying in Rostov.
This wasn't the first attack, earlier that drunk lieutenant colonel opened fire on them, and perhaps there was another before that. Furthermore Prigozhin continuously complained about the treatment Wagner got, for example the lack of support, ammo provided by the Russian MoD.
After the attack I have no doubt the top ranking members of the TschVK discussed what to do about it, what are their options, possibilities and outlooks about the future. I do not believe the further steps was initiated by Prigozhin alone. I also think they already have the thoughts going for months now, and they also have the agreement of the lower ranks. Since they let the prisoners go, they only have the crew who signed up entirely volunteerly. However many guys are probably new in the sense that they were not there in earlier contracts. But the roles in officers and all key positions are held by old veterans, brothers in arms and crime.
So now they decided to occupy the command and control center in Rostov, it seems they have Gerasimov, but Shoigu fled by helicopter. Now they are on the move to north, to Moscow it seems. At this point they had some action in Voronezh and perhaps they also take over the command and control center. At least there are some news about this.
Other tidbits:
Prigozhin said >>50513 they are 25.000 strong.
Prigozhin did not verbally attacked Putin.
Gen. Surovikin (commander of the spec. mil. operation) warned Wagner to follow the commands the supreme Commander in Chief (Putin).

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 09:40 [Preview] No.50517 del
(762.96 KB 1503x823 deployment-map.png)
What could happen? What they want? And other questions.
We can state that they have a better view on the military situation of the Russian Federation than we have. They know better what units and forced can be alerted and moved against them.
I think most if not all mobilizable units are tied down in the conflict in Ukraine, mostly conscripts are elsewhere and they can't be placed in alert in this short notice in any meaningful number. Around Moscow they bound to have a relatively strong force, which shouldn't be all conscripts. But what this "relatively" cover, I have no idea.
TschVK Wagner moves quick. They took over in Rostov at ~8-9:00 Moscow Standard Time (5:00 UTC), and then took over Voronezh by ~10-11:00 MSK . That's 500 kms as the crow flies, wtf. With this rate they should be at St Pidorsburg right now.
Oh well.

Let's say they get Shoigu and Gerasimov. Then what?
Putin renounced them - but can they be stopped, put down before they do whatever they do?
If they coup Putin?
Prigozhin said all the state machine will work as usual, so perhaps they want to swap faces in the ranks, and internally this shouldn't mean turmoil if done quick.
But will there be any international recognition? Ukraine and the West surely welcome a new regime that's willing to finish an leave everything behind. But would Prihozhin's regime do that? And if not and continue the war, would it have the relationship with other important factors like China, Iran, or India? And even if willing to make peace on the terms of Ukraine and the West would they took it seriously?
It could be a wise move to leave Putin as President, for it will allow legitimization - he is an elected leader of the RF. But could they pull this after the renouncement?

This will be very interesting to see. If the whole thing is not a scam, a media hack.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 10:37 [Preview] No.50518 del
Listening to Weeb Union's video now:
and thinking.
These videos were posted 10-11 hours ago. Basically on June 23rd at midnight. So the action against their camp happened before that, on the eve of June 23rd, and things spiraling out since then. They had about 10 hours to start their operation, going towards Rostov and Voronezh, perhaps Moscow.
Wagner has been resting now for three weeks. This was about the time that was promised them to rest after they captured Bakhmut. Maybe promised is a strong word, but something the like was said in one of the videos.
Weeb Union suggests it's a diversion and they are relocated on a new front, perhaps at Rostov, which was mentioned by Prigo earlier. To be honest would be a good and cheeky (breeky) cover for troop movements, which are cannot be concealed in any way. But then whom they deceive? Ukrainian/NATO military intelligence? I highly doubt it. Just the public, like us. What's the profit in that?

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 10:40 [Preview] No.50519 del
Did they get Gerasimov? If so whatever happens he probably won't live through this.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 10:42 [Preview] No.50520 del
I can't cite source, I looked up bunch of stuff all over, but that was my impression.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 10:54 [Preview] No.50521 del
>Prigozhin said all the state machine will work as usual, so perhaps they want to swap faces in the ranks, and internally this shouldn't mean turmoil if done quick.

Look like it, if Prigozhin was working with the west he could easily have acted to sabotage the Russian war effort considering how important Rostov is for that.
Though if this goes for very long that could happen anyway, particularly if thinks go very badly for Prigozhin and he decides to make a deal with the west for support.
Either way, the Ukrainians and the west will be watching this closely.

You would think they would have to keep Putin to reduce the risk of Russia falling apart if they were successful.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 11:05 [Preview] No.50522 del
Something else to think about. Where are Russia's Nukes and could Prigozhin get access to one? If he did could he or would he use it?

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 11:27 [Preview] No.50523 del
I'm glad that a least one of the world's leaders is level headed and coordinates the effort for peace and security.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 11:37 [Preview] No.50524 del
Now this shit is funny.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba say says the west has false neutrality in the conflict.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán said the same thing over and over, that those who pay for the war, send weapons and ammunition, train soldiers, give military intel, etc. are in the war already no matter what they lie.
Have Ukrainian and Hungarian governments said the same all along?

>if Prigozhin was working with the west
US just found $6,5 billion error in their accounting which they can spend wisely.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 11:39 [Preview] No.50525 del
Btw large NATO military air exercise should take part these days, perhaps in Polan. Coincidence?

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 12:23 [Preview] No.50526 del
Listening DPA about the "super special military operation"
He says the Wagner camp/HQ was in Lugansk, perhaps towards north. So they could reach Voronezh not that long after they were done in Rostov.
They also hold Donetsk somehow. I'm breddy sure they have more than one camps.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 13:30 [Preview] No.50527 del
The Chechens are on their way to Rostov.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 13:36 [Preview] No.50528 del
Full video of Putin's speech from here:
He doesn't explicitly saying that TschVK Wagner is rebelling. Maybe he means those who attacked Wagner...
And ofc, if Wagner is the one that has to be put down, that's a considerable experienced fighting force Russia still needs, and put into use after the leaders' heda are chopped off.
Or perhaps he expressed himself vaguely on purpose. There could be competing groups (Prigo vs. Shoigu) and he waits and sees who is winning first. Then the loser will become the real culprit of the mutiny.
Is there a video somewhere Prigozhin replying?

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 13:56 [Preview] No.50529 del
This is just an insane tin hat theory but, if Prigozhin was to work with Ukraine he could probably cut the Russians off in Ukraine. All of their communication lines are in reach.

Ukraine is launching an offensive but has not committed their reserves and we don't know for sure where they are or what else they have available, they could have intended to put pressure on the south and draw Russian forces to that direction in order for them to pull of a sudden northern attack in coordination with Prigozhin, one could then say that those previous recons into Belgorod were connected to this.

Though of course we have not seen anything to indicate this yet, but it's a thought.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 14:38 [Preview] No.50530 del
I think Russians have stockpiled considerable amount of resources which could last a while within that zone so if that's the case short term effect would be questionable.
But if Wagner could hold that line, the main junctions at least, a push along your blue arrows could be effective making the hold of positions unmanageable, and then cause the withdrawal of troops to consolidate the situation within Russia proper.
One lifeline is still there, via Kerch.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 14:53 [Preview] No.50531 del
Yes, it would depend on what stockpiles they have but also what reserves they have available to throw at Wagner without compromising the front line. But if they link up with the Ukrainians Wagner could receive reinforcements that way.
Kerch straight bridge is an issue but they might be able to deal with it, the Ukrainians have taken it down before and now they have Storm Shadow missiles. And even if they didn't it still would funnel all their communications and mean communications have to be diverted and things would take longer to move around.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 14:57 [Preview] No.50532 del
Uh, oh. Knock knock.

Yeah, I concur.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 15:05 [Preview] No.50533 del
The 217th Guards Airbourne regiment apparently changed sides.

Also the Kalinovsky Regiment(Belorussians fighting for Ukraine) asked for the Belorussians to join self defence units and wait for their signal. Though both them and the Russian legion talk such nonsense all the time.

It's a reverse Kiev.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 15:12 [Preview] No.50534 del
>changed sides.
To witch side?
>reverse Kiev.
Just faster.
I wonder if roadblocks are there to keep the way open for Wagner.
In an hour they can reach Moscow itself now. Things should speed up. We're gonna hear about either clashes or more units siding with Wagner.
We talked about coups on this board (Brbernd where art thou?), right now all the officers are mulling over whom they should side with. Most will pick passivity, and that could be enough for Prigo and his commanders.


Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 15:41 [Preview] No.50535 del
This could be a major event, that shakes up things, shifts balance. It could be a nothingburger.
In any way the cost for those who are participating can be the ultimate.
It is also the most interesting thing in the 21st century yet. The last time I was similarly excited (actually I was more then) was in 2006, when there was big turmoil after a speech of our PM Gyurcsány.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 17:36 [Preview] No.50536 del
What? They stopped because Lukashenko and Prigo had a phone chat?
Coups don't work like this!
Will they just laugh it off that it was a big misunderstanding?

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 17:38 [Preview] No.50537 del
This is silly.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 17:40 [Preview] No.50538 del
Biggest advance of the fugging war.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 18:09 [Preview] No.50539 del
>They were going to dismantle TschVK Wagner
So not anymore?
What will be the aftermath? What will happen with Prigozhin personally?

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 18:14 [Preview] No.50540 del
Obiously it wasn't Lukashenko who made the deal, was just offered through him, since he can be considered objective 3rd party.
Weeb Union says they were offered more money.
Now that most of Wagner is out of the occupied areas? Where they'll be redeployed?
Also I saw Prigozhin got quoted that they had 25K and 25K soldiers. That's about 10K more Ukraine had prepared for the offensive.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 18:51 [Preview] No.50541 del
I have my doubts Prigozhin's original intention was to overthrow Putin. Maybe he just wanted concessions from the military brass. His original speech didn't attack Putin. Putin avoiding a direct mention of Wagner >>50528 was also noteworthy. Some will speculate all of this was Putin's 4D chess so the peace deal with Wagner can let him get rid of other enemies. I wouldn't believe it because the entire incident undermines his authority and sets a precedent.

I'm kind of disappointed.

Bernd 06/24/2023 (Sat) 20:25 [Preview] No.50542 del
>Some will speculate all of this was Putin's 4D chess so the peace deal with Wagner can let him get rid of other enemies.
I heard gossip about sacking Shoigu and Gerasimov.
>I'm kind of disappointed.
Me too.
On the other hand Wagner going back to the front, 50K strong, I suppose they won't be there to hold the line.

Bernd 06/25/2023 (Sun) 00:38 [Preview] No.50543 del
Analyzing this as a coup, there are major questions to be made. What is the significance of this timing, during the Ukrainian summer offensive? Did they plan it for before the offensive, but had to delay it? Or did they expect a successful offensive, which would demoralize loyalists, but had to launch it anyways even though Ukraine hasn't made any relevant gains?

How many allies outside of Wagner did Prigozhin coordinate with before the uprising, and how much support/passive indifference did he accrue during his march on Moscow? They got halfway from Rostov to the capital in a day, that's a lot of ground, and it seems the only resistance faced was a few aerial attacks. And yet Prigozhin bailing out suggests he expected to lose. Either that or he was offered a good deal.

Bernd 06/25/2023 (Sun) 02:33 [Preview] No.50544 del
Maybe but maybe not. Lukashenko is still president of one of a handful of countries that Russia is close too and they know each other quite well, I think if Lukashenko suggested this Putin would not spit in his face and turn it down.

Bernd 06/25/2023 (Sun) 02:41 [Preview] No.50545 del
I don't know how clever Prigozhin actually is, maybe he really is just dumb enough to think that if he caused a commotion like this Putin would step in and remove Shoigu and Gerasimov.

It's interesting to note that Prigozhin had been fairly defeatist about the Ukrainian offensive, he seemed to think it was going worse for Russia and better for Ukraine than the Ukrainians and the west actually did.

So then either, this was just a lie and part of his smear campaign on Shoigu.
Or, he did actually believe this, yet choose to stage a coup despite that anyway.

Bernd 06/25/2023 (Sun) 07:11 [Preview] No.50546 del
Luka can't promise anything in the name of the Russian Federation on his own.

>fairly defeatist about the Ukrainian offensive,
One thing that isn't told enough - with the exception of Colonel Reisner of the Österreichs Bundesheer - underestimating the enemy can be fatal. All these voices on the internet on both sides (but especially true about the pro-ukrainians) that produces those "the other side weak!" type of comments and magnifying minor shortcomings are dangerous.

Bernd 06/25/2023 (Sun) 07:12 [Preview] No.50547 del
>Analyzing this as a coup,
I can pretend it was for you. But right at the first question things will be derailed.
>What is the significance of this timing, during the Ukrainian summer offensive? Did they plan it for before the offensive, but had to delay it?
They were on the front, in heavy fighting in Bakhmut until about May 21-22. Then they started to pull out allowing other units to take their place. I dunno how long this process take, and then they went to RnR. They rested, reorganized, filled ranks and ammo stores, repaired vehicles etc. This also took time. Basically a month passed. I think enough time to reach battle readiness. Is this the minimum time? I dunno, but it's time to go back to the front.
And for this the leadership entered negotiations about further employment. When it started? I dunno, perhaps on day one. Those who make the deals rarely need much rest after a tiring day of battle.
So the timing of the action has lot to do about getting restless. 50000 soldiers not doing actual soldiering just drinking whoring and maintaining equipment is not good for anyone.

cont. Bernd 06/25/2023 (Sun) 07:31 [Preview] No.50548 del
>Or did they expect a successful offensive
I don't think so. They know Russian fortified positions better, and generally the situation what's it like there and what can be expected.
The good thing about the Ukrainian offensive, and what they made use of is that combat ready Russian units are tied down in Ukraine and busy to keep the situation as is, even those in reserve can't really make a move, since they might be needed on the front any time. Those men who are willing to fight are there.

>How many allies outside of Wagner did Prigozhin coordinate with before the uprising
Still supposing this was a coup attempt it was not for the sake of a brain game (I don't want to call it gymnastics for it's implication) the simple answer is: we don't know, no information about that. I think he contacted Putin, they probably have their own landline used between each other when they do their deals, no need for official channels. But if you mean other units? They sure planned their route, and contacted those they are going - or at least Prigo and couple other guys rolled forward in a car before the column arrived and told. I don't think there was any surprises.
It is no use to contact generals of units holding the front, they are bogged down, or those that weren't in the way.
Then Prigo went public asking everyone to join generally.
>how much support/passive indifference did he accrue during his march on Moscow?
I dunno if we'll ever get any info about this. He >>50533 mentions the 217th guards airbourne regiment, and I also saw the VDV getting mentioned here: https://yewtu.be/watch?v=rylvYmIyLBE at about 10:00. So that's one unit.

>They got halfway from Rostov to the capital in a day, that's a lot of ground
I think they split into two, one group to Rostov, one towards Moscow (via Voronezh). They started on the eve of June 23rd, perhaps midnight the latest.
>the only resistance faced was a few aerial attacks
I dunno if there were real aerial attacks. I saw one video a helicopter shooting fireworks, but no actual explosions or anything. So maybe those were just distractions than actual fights. It was said somewhere Wagner lost no man.

Bernd 06/25/2023 (Sun) 07:44 [Preview] No.50549 del
>And yet Prigozhin bailing out
Did he really?
Here I have to stop pretending this was a coup.
I read in the news, it is written all around, that he is "moving"/"retiring" to Belarus, they giving him "safety" and whatever.
But perhaps they take his company with him and the next offensive of the Wagner will be from Belarus.
There is simply too little information out there.
What happens with Wagner? News also say those who participated (how many? Prigo says 25K and 25K so all of em) won't be punished, those who did not will be offered contracts by Russian MoD. Prigo said they wanted to dismantle Wagner this is why it started.
Now we have a situation where some of them (how many? majority? or negligible minority? did they act together - even if not all of them was on the move to moscow - or not? there were those who secured Donetsk for example, or those who still held the camps they have) are offered contracts, but others (while they will be unpunished) don't. The latter group still is a fighting force with considerable experience. They have capable commanders and officers. More capable than the Russian army ones.
And there is the rest of the Wagner doing contract jobs all around the world, for example still deployed in Syria doing whatever next to other Russian units.
So does TscVK Wagner still exist and will? Perhaps another contract was made with Wagner. Russian MoD don't have to make contract with those who participated this way and still keep them fighting. Those have contract with Wanger and Wagner has contract with Russian govt.
And the rest who don't want to stay in the employment of Wagner still can sight up with MoD and get a different assignment in a different unit.
We know too little for now.

Bernd 06/26/2023 (Mon) 07:38 [Preview] No.50550 del
Some think this wasn't the performance, but a rehearsal before the play.

Bernd 06/26/2023 (Mon) 09:06 [Preview] No.50551 del
(102.69 KB 643x358 aleksey-dyumin.jpg)
(91.27 KB 488x544 dyumin.jpg)
Denys Davydov gathered interesting info about the "coup":
Basically Shoigu and Gerasimov wanted Prigo to be done. Prigo tried to contact Putin but he failed, so he launched this habbening, which apparently got Putin's attention. Prigo was able to save his life (unless "went to Belarus" is an idiom in Russian and means getting whacked).
Shoigu is getting dismissed, the replacement will be Aleksey Dyumin the governor of Tula Oblast who was the chief of the Special Operations Forces and oversaw the annexation of Crimea - Wikipee says - then he was Deputy MoD, so he should have the necessary XP for the job, and since the role of TschVK Wagner in the occupation of Crimea, he also must have working experience with them.
Prigo and Dyumin had a chat during the Most Extremely Special Military Operation of last Saturday.

Bernd 06/26/2023 (Mon) 15:04 [Preview] No.50552 del
It's possible I guess. Shoigu was filmed touring the front today though.

Bernd 06/26/2023 (Mon) 15:10 [Preview] No.50553 del
Yes I heard that too. I thought it was just Prigozhin being sent to Belarus but apparently they are building a camp there for 8000 Wagners. Is that enough though?
I think they have a chance to achieve something if the movement is a ruse and they attack Khakov or Sumy or Chernihiv while they pass, but once in Belarus I think they won't be able to do anything serious by themselves, though how many Russian units are still in Belarus?

Bernd 06/26/2023 (Mon) 15:12 [Preview] No.50554 del
Wagner operations in Africa continue as usual.


I expected that but some people(Peter Zeihan) thought that Russia was going to cut them off and Russia's whole position in Africa would disappear overnight.

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 07:24 [Preview] No.50555 del
I really hate that all the media giants never actually present people's own words. They should make the whole thing available (with translation when it's a foreigner), and publish excerpts of the key points.
For example I wanna watch the whole video of Prigozhin speaking with subtitles. Yeah, it's available on Telegram, but what if no Telegram or don't want Telegram, or whatever.
Anyway here's Al Jizzair article:
Am gonna quote the quotes. No green arrows.

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 07:25 [Preview] No.50556 del
“As a result of intrigues and ill-considered decisions, this unit [Wagner] was supposed to cease to exist on July 1.”
“The council of [Wagner] commanders gathered, which brought all the information to the fighters, and no one agreed to sign a contract with the [Russian] ministry of defence, as everyone knows perfectly well… that this would have led to a complete loss of combat capability.”
“Experienced fighters, experienced commanders would simply be smashed and turned into meat; they would not be able to use their combat potential and combat experience.”
“Those fighters who decided that they were ready to transfer to the Ministry of Defence did transfer, but this was a small amount of 1-2 percent.”
“The decision to transfer [Wagner] to the defence ministry was taken at the most inopportune moment.”

“We were taking inventory and were going to leave on June 30 in a column to Rostov and publicly hand over the equipment near the headquarters of the SVO [acronym for Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine] if there was no solution.”
“Despite the fact that we did not show any aggression, a missile strike was launched on us and immediately after that the helicopters worked on us. About 30 fighters of the Wagner PMC (private military company) were killed, some were injured.”
“This was the trigger for… the [Wagner] Council of Commanders deciding that we should start moving immediately.”

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 07:26 [Preview] No.50557 del
March to Moscow
“The aim was to prevent the destruction of the PMC and to bring to justice those people who made a huge number of mistakes during their unprofessional actions. This was demanded by the public, all the servicemen who saw us during the march supported us.”
“During the entire march, which lasted 24 hours, one column went to Rostov; the other, in the direction of Moscow. During a day, we travelled 780km [484 miles] to within just 200km [124 miles] of Moscow.”
“Not a single soldier on the ground was killed. We regret that we had to strike at aviation but they hurled bombs [at us] and launched missile strikes.”
“We blocked all military units and airfields that were in our path.”
“When we walked past Russian cities on June 23-24, civilians greeted us with Russian flags and with the emblems and flags of the Wagner PMC. They were all happy when we passed by. Many of them are still writing words of support and some are disappointed that we stopped, because in the ‘march of justice’, in addition to our struggle for existence, they saw support for the fight against bureaucracy and other ills that exist in our country today.”
“We started our march because of injustice. On the way, we didn’t kill a single soldier on the ground. In one day, they reached a point just 200km from Moscow [and] they took complete control of the city of Rostov.”
“We gave a master class on how it should have been done on February 24, 2022 [when Russia invaded Ukraine]. We did not have the goal of overthrowing the existing regime and the legally elected government.”

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 07:27 [Preview] No.50558 del
Why Wagner stopped
“We turned around not to shed the blood of Russian soldiers.”
“We stopped at the moment when the first assault detachment, which came to 200km from Moscow, deployed its artillery, did a reconnaissance of the area and it became obvious that a lot of blood would be shed at that moment.”
“Therefore, we felt that demonstrating what we were going to do was enough.”
“And our decision to turn around was based on two important factors. The first factor is that we did not want to shed Russian blood. The second factor is that we were registering our protest and not seeking to overthrow the government of the country.”
“At this time, [Belarusian President] Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the further work of the Wagner PMC within a legal jurisdiction.”
“Our ‘march of justice’ highlighted a lot of the things we have talked about before – the most serious security problems throughout the country.”

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 07:49 [Preview] No.50559 del
Another thing we have to wait and see.

>they are building a camp there for 8000 Wagners.
Perhaps it's for Belarusian volunteers. They can't volunteer for Russian MoD, since technically they are foreigners me thinks, but they could for Wagner.
This also doesn't mean they'll be deployed in an attack from Belarus.
Ukraine keeping more troops at the border, or at least in reserves (and not sent to the south to fight) is also comes with the possibility.

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 08:00 [Preview] No.50560 del
It's interesting to see that Prigozhin is still criticising the government and actually standing by his actions, not apologising for them.
Putin has not forgiven Prigozhin either it seems, he gave a speech last night attacking the organisers of the rebellion.
This almost doesn't seem resolved. Though Wagner are in exile I guess.

Putin also said that Wagner fighters were given a choice of either sigh a contract with the MoD, go home or go to Belorussia and then >>50558 Lukashenko 'offered solutions for work of the PMC within a legal Jurisdiction'.

What does that mean? It almost sounds like Wagner will continue their work overseas but be based out of Belorussia instead, or maybe they will still fight in Ukraine? Wagner being a 'Belorussian' PMC would troll the west at least.

Maybe, that makes sense. It might be a way to get Belarus involved by proxy, both through that but also Belarus could provide Wagner with supplies and ammunition instead of the Russians having too.

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 16:24 [Preview] No.50563 del
Heh, NFKRZ made a video about this uh coupy event.
He raises couple of good points. Such as:
>Wagner is pro-war, they want to ramp up things ("where is the ammunition")
>current regime created an imperialistic chauvinist group within the society which is more radical than the current regime

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 16:34 [Preview] No.50564 del
Whilst a while ago he did say that Russia should be fully mobilising, Prigozhin has also said the war was unnecessary, that the only reason it happened was because of Shoigu and that because of that Shoigu has killed thousands of Russians.

I would not say that he actually is pro-war or that he does want it to continue, he could really go either way and the only person that probably knows what he wants is himself and his inner circle.

Bernd 06/27/2023 (Tue) 19:57 [Preview] No.50565 del
states here that Wagner was about 8000 at Soledar.
Then towards the end of the video he says "the Wagner core was not entirely disbanded". Perhaps he is right, and the originals (what's left of 'em) are kept, and they'll be moved to that camp.
There are other stuff too.

Bernd 06/28/2023 (Wed) 19:43 [Preview] No.50569 del
Liveuamap is getting more useless by the day. Sure those areas will be captured, but weeks could go on until they do. I really don't like it.

In Hungarian article I read The New York Times published an article where they conclude that the sanctions aren't as effective as they thought who would have thought, and the sanctioned goods reach Russia via 3rd parties, like the Central Asian *stans.
I can't find the article, but here's a paper that analyze just this issue.
I find the second graph very interesting
>Total imports from Russia less impacted by the relatively low indirect imports
It shows that in direct imports there was a hike from 2020 May to 2022 March, a huge hike, then it was dropped back till 2022 December, but still did not reach the level of 2020 May. I wonder what was imported from Russia in those two years.
Before that there was also a break at 2020 February. Is it about gas and oil? Because Russia is basically a big gas station. At the beginning of 2020 the price of oil reached rock bottom, well below rock bottom. They stopped buying it? Russia stopped selling it? I dunno.
The next two graphs are actually funny. Hungary baed, mkay. t. Germany

Bernd 06/29/2023 (Thu) 12:12 [Preview] No.50573 del
After listening bunch of videos and checking out all the maps I can say the Ukrainian offensive is going well. And by "well" I mean they are able to take lands, and even positions that have operational importance. Like at Kurdiumovka south of Bakhmut, they managed to cross the canal and take positions in the town. That's a bridgehead they could intentionally expand from.
But will they? I dunno. They pay the price and if they melt like snow the offensive(s) will halt. It's a shame we don't get any real information about the losses. I'm curious where is the limit which breaks a campaign. I think it's reasonable to say they'll push as hard as they can until the NATO summit on July 11-12.
After that? Who knows.

I also came across this channel of Vlad Vexler. He seems to say interesting stuff, I have to give a proper listen still: He has a main channel, I have not looked at it yet.

Bernd 06/30/2023 (Fri) 08:49 [Preview] No.50575 del
(70.71 KB 533x594 lolwut.jpg)

Bernd 06/30/2023 (Fri) 15:57 [Preview] No.50578 del
(34.61 MB 1280x720 feedback-wagner.mp4)
Most level headed and accurate analysis about the Wagner coup/mutiny/whatever. Done by a HoI4 youtuber, who got his info from dailymail. I'm impressed.

Bernd 06/30/2023 (Fri) 19:41 [Preview] No.50579 del
How differently an event can be interpreted from the same point of view at least from the same camp.
I watched enough Vlad Vexler to know now, that he views Putin some kind of insane dictator - which is easy to do, and many emotionally involved and biased do. Sure he is an autocrat, and sure probably has it's own psychological profile, but he is not irrational, and/or stupid, and/or illiterate. It is common to view autocrats like that. For one reason to make fun of them, because on those we laugh at, we fear less. Like Hitler. But this leads far from topic.
So in the article there is an interesting analogy with monarchies of feudal kingdoms. And considering even the communist dictatorship was organized feudalistic "vassal owes fealty to the senior" basis, and I think the current hierarchy of the Russian governance too, it could be a spot on parallel.

Btw, Vlad V has an interesting editing style, he edits here and there just one frame, and they are just a flash for the eye. Like Fight Club dickpics, except these are related to topic. For example linked video at 3:01 there is literally one frame of Prigo holding Russian flag in front of couple of solders.

Bernd 07/01/2023 (Sat) 16:23 [Preview] No.50584 del
(3.98 MB 848x464 IMG_8553.MP4)
Poor Leopards...

Bernd 07/01/2023 (Sat) 19:30 [Preview] No.50585 del
Yeah, all those dirty Slavs pawing them.

Bernd 07/02/2023 (Sun) 19:11 [Preview] No.50588 del
What I gathered recently is that Putin's opposition aren't the liberals, but a more radical group, basically the Z people, Russian imperialists who want to ramp up the war effort and strike harder. This sucks for Putin because they are those who actually support the war, the vast majority is a depoliticized population who are on the ride because they see no choice, and then there are another minority who opposes the war but they don't count at all when it comes to decision making. For these Z imperialists, the Wagner is a symbol of military might, and strength. They liked when Prigozhin trash talked the incompetent fools in the MoD and the Army. They might be confused by Prigo's "anti-war" statement, but they can easily wave it away as some kind of propaganda bs to confuse Westerners.
Today I heard in one of the videos that 25K Musicians went to Belarus.
Also Denys Davydov said couple of days ago that Surovikin got arrested, because he was the one who incited Wagner to rise up. In the video here >>50514 he just covered his ass. It sounds weird, but perhaps he gets to be sacrificial lamb, who has to take the blame.

Bernd 07/02/2023 (Sun) 20:29 [Preview] No.50589 del
Thinking about the pro-Ukrainian "Westerners" (in quotation marks for I mean Hungarians and other Eastern EU poeople too), the archetypes.
There are those who just think what media tells them, Ukraine fights for it's sovereignty and we have to support them with money and weapons. They have no idea where things could going, or what could be an endgame, what could end the war. Just go on and support. It's a good cause.
And there are another group who just like the Z imperialist radicals want to ramp up the war. Those who want more weapons, more support, NATO in the war, Ukraine in the NATO; the Hawks. I don't think many such can be found among the common people. Among decision makers, lobbists of various economic factors, and these factors themselves, who hope to profit, not just the war but their eyes on the future, after the war. Perhaps philosophers - like that Vlad Vexler -, political theorists and whatnot. Mostly people whom the hardships of war will never touch, but they wouldn't be hesitant to beat the stinging nettle with others' dicks.
What other types are there?

Bernd 07/03/2023 (Mon) 03:07 [Preview] No.50592 del
Most Liberals probably already left or know better than to say too much in public.
Yeah, I think a lot of these Russians are quite confused on what they should think now given what Prigozhin did.
The issue is that if you are an ultranationalist Russian then this war is really not going well for you and it's not being fought like it should be. In such a person's mind Russia would be the greatest power on earth yet they are achieving next to nothing at the moment and yet the Government still has not fully mobilised. I could see that would be frustrating.

I also heard that Surovikin was arrested, but his daughter came out and said he had not been. I have no idea. These things happen with high profile figures on both sides, if they are not seen for a few days then suddenly it's assumed they are dead or arrested.

You get all sorts supporting Ukraine.
Something that comes up and that people like Peter Zeihan talk about is the idea that this is only the beginning and that Russia plans to invade Poland and Romania next, then he adds more to this by saying that sense Russia has not gone so well in this invasion if they ever did fight NATO they would have to use Nukes. So therefore, this war is being fought to prevent a Nuclear war. Now, this of course has a few problems but one of them is that if Russia had to use nukes to defeat Poland after defeating Ukraine then why would they not use Nukes on Ukraine if they felt like Ukraine was going to win?

There are common people that want to escalate as well but they are usually either idiots that believe it when people say that giving Ukraine tanks and jets is going to somehow end the war or they are extremists who don't care if the war does escalate, far right people like my uncle.

Bernd 07/03/2023 (Mon) 03:17 [Preview] No.50593 del
Monarchies weren't very centralised though, plus all of your vassals has their own private army and would not be afraid to use them against you if you did something that they did not like.
Wait a minute...

Bernd 07/03/2023 (Mon) 07:42 [Preview] No.50595 del
I'm avoiding the word nationalist on purpose. They are patriotic, but not nationalist. It's hard to maintain nationalism on a non-self destructive manner in a multicultural society. They also came from Soviet background. Which doesn't mean they did not hate on minorities (for example they consciously excluded Turkic and Mongol minorities from the army, and it became an issue during the 80s when demographic started to shift), but it is more like the United States.
>this war is really not going well for you and it's not being fought like it should be.
And Putin is pressured to escalate, or escalate faster. He wants to freeze the conflict, which is bad news for Ukraine, but the internal pressure might force him to try decisive steps. Which is bad news for Putin.
>In such a person's mind Russia would be the greatest power on earth yet they are achieving next to nothing
Coping mechanism already exists tho, for a long time now. Like "they keep the good guy down", "they need whole NATO to tie us down".
>hese things happen with high profile figures on both sides, if they are not seen for a few days then suddenly it's assumed they are dead or arrested.
Yeah, the informational warfare.


Bernd 07/03/2023 (Mon) 12:29 [Preview] No.50596 del
Listening WillyOAM talking how it would solve issues if a Western company would give pilots, mechanics, commanders with the Western equipment to Ukraine, since the training for such weapon systems like F-16 that Ukrainian crews can get is inadequate for the task they have to do when they are in the war.
Ofc this isn't his idea, he just mulls over it.
1. NATO pilots contracts with western company
2. NATO gives money to Ukraine
3. NATO gives fighter jets to Ukraine
4. Ukraine gives money to western company to get the pilots
NATO pilots, flying NATO fighters, payed by NATO money.
But essentially this could be done with anything. Just give Ukraine whole brigades. As long as the money are taken from Zelensky's hands by a private military contractor it's perfectly okay.
And remember, NATO isn't in war with Russia.
I have one question tho. Can I be the private military contractor who just there to receive the money? I promise I wouldn't sit on the monebags, but spend it quick so the wealth would find it's way back to the economy. I wouldn't even mind if I'd get ripped off.

Bernd 07/06/2023 (Thu) 03:10 [Preview] No.50606 del
Prigozhin, master of disguise.

Bernd 07/06/2023 (Thu) 03:11 [Preview] No.50607 del
He could be anybody, anywhere, at anytime.

Bernd 07/06/2023 (Thu) 07:10 [Preview] No.50608 del
Were some funny memes on DPA.
This also could be misinfo but FSB found fake papers in his house, I'm sure screenshots are on polru somewhere.
He looks like that bloke whomster is trolled by nido.

Bernd 07/06/2023 (Thu) 15:08 [Preview] No.50613 del
It looks like the Ukrainians lost a CV-90, Ukraine is supposed to have received 50 of them so far.
People on the Internet seem to really like them, I mean, they are okay I guess(and probably better than anything Russia has but that's not saying much).

Bernd 07/06/2023 (Thu) 15:13 [Preview] No.50614 del
So far, this offensive has been ongoing for more than a month and nothing much has come of it, they have not reached the first line of defence. I don't think they have committed most of their forces and I think they are waiting for the first line to be reached and a weak point to be established before launching the main effort. But if they are unable to reach the line and create a weak point then the offensive may be dead before the main effort can start.

The Ukrainian attacks around Bahkmut seem to be more successful. Maybe this will draw Russian forces from the south.

Bernd 07/06/2023 (Thu) 17:41 [Preview] No.50615 del
What does it offer compared to other metal boxes with a gun?

I still believe they'll try to push till the NATO summit.
I also think with Wagner gone (if really gone) from the conflict Russia will try to freeze it, and won't mount major offensives. Perhaps some low level assaults with small units here and there.
>The Ukrainian attacks around Bahkmut seem to be more successful.
For now Russians give up some land that did not matter much (except they payed dearly for it), and around that area they lack in fortifications. I don't think Prigozhin's prediction will come true and they won't recapture everything in 1,5 month.

Dutch bernd Bernd 07/07/2023 (Fri) 14:50 [Preview] No.50621 del
Why can't both sides sue for peace at this point? It's a smarter solution than to keep dragging this entire thing.

Bernd 07/07/2023 (Fri) 18:14 [Preview] No.50626 del
I'm mostly there with you. I'm interested in warfare and conflicts, and normally wouldn't mind shaking things up, but the situation is quite bad, and at the moment I also have things too precious to lose, I find the heat appalling.
Problem is that both sides think they can gain - or regain. Not to mention Ukraine has no will on her own, I would tend to agree with Orbán who says it would be peace if the United States wanted peace. But I think even the US govt is also pressured to go on with the war - and they don't just see an opportunity to weaken Russia's position, and strengthen their own.
There is some balance of the will. Both in Russia and Ukraine the West there are those who want to be cautious and freeze the war because on both sides they think the other will tire out on the long term. But on both sides there are those who want to escalate. In Russia they are the Z imperialists, but they are mostly bydlo, in the west there are investors who bought up Ukraine and will see no returns until the thing isn't finished, and they want to finish it quick (all these ventures are financed by loans, so they can lose a lot) with securing a win for Ukraine.
Problem with escalation it can escalate us right into the war, and it will hit just a little bit too close to home for my taste.
I'm not much of a humanitarian, still I can empathize with those who are suffering.

Bernd 07/07/2023 (Fri) 20:13 [Preview] No.50628 del
I wanted to write something today, but had to shut down my comp. before I could finished it...
We touched that scenario when NATO would move into Ukraine and establish a security zone somewhere in the western corner of Ukraine. I believe another scenario exists, nearby, but involves a different country.
Hearing the news that Wagner moves to Belarus, Poland and Lithuania started to moan that Wagner relocated for the intend to cut off the corridor between the two country never mind that the corridor is between Kaliningrad and Belarus, where Lithuania did held off the traffic.. Gallant Germany calmed them and said they are ready to move a brigade there.
Note 1: Belarus technically still is a sovereign, independent country.
Note 2: since the start of the war NATO builds up forces in Central Europe and the Baltics.
So the other scenario: what if the cause and effect are the other way around, and relocating Wagner to Belarus - as well as moving nukes there as well - is a reaction to the NATO buildup?
What if NATO plans and invasion against Belarus? Or perhaps a riot which they would inflate into an "uprising", a "revolution" - a Maidan - which they would support with troops.
And even if this plan never bears fruit, it could serve as a distraction, could keep some amount of Russian forces occupied in Belarus, essentially doomed to idleness.

In the morning I read an article on Al Jazeera, where Stoltenberg acknowledged that Wagner is in Belarus, and said "not many". Well "not many" is a relative term. Less than half can described as "not many" to be honest. In same article Lukashenko was quoted talking about "camps" plural.
I can't find that article (don't really want to to be honest), but here's another one claiming noone from Wagner is in Belarus yet, still in their Anthill where they were. What is this hide and seek?

Bernd 07/08/2023 (Sat) 04:31 [Preview] No.50630 del
It's not in the interest of either side.

Ukraine is not going to accept Russian territorial demands and Russia is not going to give up what it has taken. Likewise Ukraine is not going to accept any demands Russia wants to impose on their military and Russia is not going to allow the Ukrainian military to continue building up like it is.

A ceasefire might be arranged but that does not solve any of these issues so hostilities would break out later on again anyway, both sides would simply use the ceasefire to give them time to build up strength.
At best we could get a situation like in North Korea where the ceasefire becomes the de facto status quo but that might be wishing for too much in this situation.

Bernd 07/09/2023 (Sun) 20:56 [Preview] No.50639 del
Hmmm. Weeb Union says both Ukrainian and Russian sources mentioned attacks from Belarus into Chernigov oblast.

Bernd 07/10/2023 (Mon) 13:08 [Preview] No.50648 del
I have not seen that mentioned anywhere.

Bernd 07/10/2023 (Mon) 13:24 [Preview] No.50649 del
Rheinmetall is building a factory in Ukraine.


There was talk about it months ago and they were saying that the factory would be building panthers which I thought was ridiculous.
Well anyway.

>Rheinmetall will open an armored vehicle plant in Ukraine within the next 12 weeks, shrugging off concerns other Western defense companies reportedly have about building a presence in the country while it is at war with Russia.

>Germany’s biggest arms maker will also train Ukrainians to maintain the tanks and other armored vehicles made in the factory, which will be located in the western part of the country, CEO Armin Papperger told CNN in an exclusive interview on Thursday.

>“[Ukrainians] have to help themselves — if they always have to wait [for] Europeans or Americans [to] help them over the next 10 or 20 years… that is not possible,” he said.

>The company told the Rheinische Post newspaper earlier this year that it hoped to open a €200 million ($218 million) battle tank factory on Ukrainian soil, capable of producing about 400 tanks a year.

>Papperger said on Thursday that factory workers would build and repair Rheinmetall’s Fuchs armored personnel carrier — named after the German word for fox — under license in the facility.

So they are definitely building Fuchs and they say that Ukrainians will be trained to maintain 'tanks and other armored(sic) vehicles' but I don't know if that means Panthers or if that actually means tanks at all and is not just the article assuming or generalising. Or ti could eb that Fuchs prduction will start in 12 weeks, and other more complicated vehicles will follow.

As for the vulnerability of the factory, the CEO of Rhinmetall thinks it will be able to be protected.

The Fuchs is just an 6x6 APC that can optionally be armed with a an MG weapons station(with two MG3s, not even 50.cals), it's not anything special and they can still easily get such vehicles from western allies and even from us(Australia).
They need tanks and IFVs, and even if this factory does produce though how many and how quickly they will do so is another matter.

Bernd 07/10/2023 (Mon) 13:35 [Preview] No.50650 del
Something else interesting.


NATO dropped the Membership Action Plan for Ukrainian admission to NATO meaning that the time it will take for Ukraine to join is now shortened.

Additionally in this article, Erdogan said this about letting Sweden into NATO.

>“First, open the way to Turkey’s membership of the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland,” Erdogan told Turkish television before leaving for Vilnius.

Bernd 07/10/2023 (Mon) 15:01 [Preview] No.50656 del
That article is hilarious.
What is Membership Action Plan?
>a NATO programme of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance.
>Participation in the MAP does not prejudge any decision by the Alliance on future membership.
Countries wish to join don't have to participate, it's not a precondition, it just helps them prepare, it's kinda mentorship. So in case of Ukraine, it's a big nothing. And to be honest from all the countries that joined NATO, Ukraine is probably the most prepared, has lotsa troops with combat XP, and working knowledge on NATO doctrines, training, strategy, tactics, and equipment.
>President Volodymyr Zelensky had voiced hope that Tuesday’s NATO summit in Vilnius would provide a “clear signal” that Kyiv could join the alliance once its war with Russia is over.
Well it's a clear signal they won't join as long as the war is on. But as far as I know one of the conditions is that the candidate shouldn't have territorial disputes. Hungary had to confirm over 9000 times that we don't want any clay back, we had to waive our claim (again)! So if the war ends with Russia having some clay (like Crimea), Ukraine has to renounce that clay.
Well we won't face WWIII and nuclear holocaust for Ukraine joining NATO. I'm sure other opportunities will occur so we can hope.
>Kyiv said its troops captured key heights around the eastern city of Bakhmut.
>they had established fire control over the “entrances, exits and movement of the enemy around the city.
Major success they literelly encircled Bakhmu!
>Russian shelling [...] killed four people,
>They hit a humanitarian aid delivery spot in a residential area
Evil Russians are war criminals against.
>Cluster Concerns
>Britain [...] have signed an agreement banning the production, storage, sale and use of cluster bombs
>but Ukrainian forces were “running out of ammunition.”
>Biden and Sunak were “on the same page
Well if they are running out of ammunition I understand why Sunak can dismiss human rights groups claims that they
>pose a danger to civilian populations long after they are deployed.
You see, Bernd, it's a regrettable necessity.
>Turkey using extortion
I really laffed at this. I don't think they really want to join to EU at this point. I dunno. It's a funny rap on the nose.

Well summit starts tomorrow I think. If this is the warm up, then we're gonna get more entertainment.

Bernd 07/10/2023 (Mon) 15:08 [Preview] No.50657 del
It will be a prime target for Russian rockets. We can consider it testing waters. If it survives, it could be feasible to set up more.
>will be located in the western part of the country
They could build it under the Carpathians. I bet they have such factories already, perhaps they'll repurpose one.
>They need tanks and IFVs
I dunno they lost lotsa battle taxis. Those need to be replaced. And it's not like they do much armoured assaults, when these columns are grouping they are struck by the Russians.

Bernd 07/11/2023 (Tue) 08:17 [Preview] No.50667 del
"Historic moment..." Sweden is literelly NATO now.
Erdog agrees on forwarding the membership bid to Turkish Parliament. And perhaps even back it. They can sit on it for months... But at least can announce the great result, giving something for the news and masses. Now one thing left: telling off to Ukraine quietly, because yesterday's news is unofficial, it is not the result of the summit yet.

Bernd 07/11/2023 (Tue) 20:04 [Preview] No.50670 del
This one is funny. Biden offering a hand only to Orbán.
I think they all met outside, so not offering to everbody else can be explained with that. Perhaps he thought he did not meet with Orbán yet? Did he mistake him with someone else in his dementia? Or they really did not meet before? It's a mystery.
>hide the pain Sunak
That smile is a bit forced.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 03:05 [Preview] No.50671 del
Hungary is the weakest link in the alliance so it makes sense that he would do that. I don't think there is really anybody else who Biden would need to win over other than Erdogan.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 07:31 [Preview] No.50672 del
The Russians probably captured a Bradley.
I say probably because while they are standing there and have the engine running it might be stuck or maybe they won't be able to get it back past the battlefield to their own bases, it's not 100%.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 07:31 [Preview] No.50673 del
>Hungary is the weakest link in the alliance
How? Hungary is very committed to NATO.
We talk a lot about how NATO supports Ukraine, but all support is bipartisan (I'm not sure I'm using the correct term here) agreements, countries commit individually, and NATO as a whole doesn't. I think US uses NATO as a way to pressure member states to support Ukraine.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 07:35 [Preview] No.50674 del
Yes Hungary fulfils all of her NATO obligations but she is also probably the least committed to supporting Ukraine out of all NATO members, hence why she is the weakest link in the alliance and why Biden would make a point of being polite to them.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 08:37 [Preview] No.50675 del
Not just fulfills, has interest to stay in NATO. All our enemies are the neighbours (and noone else) who are also in NATO (well, except Austria and Serbia). And as long as everyone is in, peace is almost guaranteed.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 10:32 [Preview] No.50676 del
(137.80 KB 1080x1148 lake-nato.jpg)
Listening press conference with Stolten, and Zelensky, and some woman on Al Jazeera. It's not really interesting, I missed the beginning, not sure how much. Maybe they told everything already.

This is noteworthy, training F-16 pilots in Romania:

And some other titles I see on the front page.
North Korea long range ballistic missile test, 12th this year.
And China launches "first methane-fuelled space rocket", I dunno about the performance and real significance, but as they put it, it seems it's kinda mini space race among space agencies.

Saw picrel on polru, laffed a bit.
We could say they cornered Putin to make a move that forced Finland and Sweden into NATO. And supposedly Ukraine will join too - but that's in the future, so who knows it'll actually happen or not. In any way NATO won two more countries, forming a unified bastion from all Scandinavia.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 10:42 [Preview] No.50677 del
Russian bloke (Vyacheslav Matuzov, former diplomat) is interviewed by Al Jazeera (same live broadcast), and he says it's no problem for Russia, that Finland and Sweden are NATO now, because they are part of the Western block already, they were considered as any NATO country already.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 11:47 [Preview] No.50678 del
(114.66 KB 760x427 01.webp)
This is the unit that captured the Bradley. They are apparently volunteers that met through some kind of internet group, one of them brought a Dakimakura with him to the front.

Truly they are strong.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 13:51 [Preview] No.50679 del
NADOH news, what happened on July 11, on the first day of Nadoh summit?
1. bringing Ukraine closer to NATO:
- arm Ukraine with western weapons;
- rebuild Ukrainian security and defence sector;
- covering needs: fuel, demining equipment, medical supplies.
Wasn't most of their fuel coming from Russia? I think so. Yeah, they have problems with mines, that is a fresh lesson from the offensive.
2. new NADOH-Ukraine council
Seems like symbolic gesture, but perhaps one more step in the cooperation of NATO and Ukraine as a whole.
3. Agreed on Ukraine becoming member in the future.
4. Agreed on removing the Membership Action Plan for Ukraine.
5. beef up NADOH
- 300K troop at high readiness (including air and naval combat power)
- boosting armament production (warehouses are empty, they can barely produce couple thousand 155 mm shells per month, when Ukraine shoots thousands on daily basis)
- enhance interoperability - standardization, not just equipment but leading practices and such so all the foreign crews can work better together I think, no more Karánsebes
- minumum 2% of GDP for each member on defence - this is old news actually, even Trump banged on this gate
Interesting stance on China. While they named the two main threat Russia and terrorism, they don't consider China as adversary. They are clearly careful not to push China towards Russia. But this also allows China to help Russia outplay sanctions, or give them technically non-lethal help liberally.

They are very cool.

Bernd 07/12/2023 (Wed) 19:05 [Preview] No.50680 del
I skipped this post.
Yeah, just because they could make a video, it doesn't mean it's secured.

Bernd 07/13/2023 (Thu) 08:39 [Preview] No.50682 del
Stoltenberg summing the summit:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=S_8GTNkPxFM [Embed]
Transcript is here:
>as Ukraine continues to liberate territory we'll stand by them for as long as it takes
No particularities how this will go. But NATO will continue to make Ukraine more NATO compatible, so more equipment will be delivered, no question about it.
>change the membership path from two steps process to one step process
>deter future aggression from Russia, after the war ends
Will the war end? How it will end? When? Too many questions to consider the long time guarantees and assistance concrete. So as for now it's basically promises.
He also talks about the ties between NATO and other allies in the indo-pacific, the danger of China and North Korea.

That journalisette from Politico has a huge schnoz. Almost puts Abby to shame. But she raised a good point. Ukraine NATO membership could be used as bargaining chip against Russia at the table.
In his reply Stoltenberg mentions long range cruise missiles, more armored vehicles, more advanced AA systems, training of F-16 pilots. No surprises there. Btw he clears the question with: they give support so Ukraine can take more land, because more land taken, the better will be Ukrain's position at the negotiating table, and NATO doesn't negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.
Another bloke asks about peacekeeping mission, I assume it would be about some kind of intervention or establishing a security zone in Ukraine.
Stoltenberg sidesteps saying it's wrong to speculate about the future after the war, war has to be ended first. Well, then speculate on Ukraine's NATO membership is wrong...?

The rest isn't really interesting.

Bernd 07/13/2023 (Thu) 11:28 [Preview] No.50683 del
Australia is sending 30 Bushmasters to Ukraine, which will give a total of 120 Bushmasters that will have been sent to Ukraine.

Bernd 07/13/2023 (Thu) 14:48 [Preview] No.50684 del
How many could still be in service? How many lost for good? for bad, for ugly

Bernd 07/13/2023 (Thu) 16:29 [Preview] No.50685 del
Not sure, I think I have seen about 10 damaged or destroyed but that's probably not all of them.

I have not seen any recently, so maybe the units that use them are not engaged in much combat.

Bernd 07/14/2023 (Fri) 14:00 [Preview] No.50694 del
(1.05 MB 688x1280 K3NaUqJNrHGlVlaY.mp4)
A Bradley after being hit by a tank.

Bernd 07/15/2023 (Sat) 07:40 [Preview] No.50697 del
Couple days before Wagner weren't even in Belarus, now they are training troops there.
>Ukrainian president says monitoring security situation in Belarus where Wagner fighters are training Belarusian troops.

Bernd 07/15/2023 (Sat) 08:06 [Preview] No.50698 del
It's fore better ventilation. During the summer it gets stuffy in there.
Is there an outward opening on the other side?

Bernd 07/15/2023 (Sat) 13:23 [Preview] No.50700 del
Ongoing Russian offensive is on the Lugansk front, Kreminna->Lyman direction. DPA said Russian MoD announced it too.
They have results. Weirdly enough liveuamap shows more, but even the starting situation is different than on DeepState's map.

Bernd 07/17/2023 (Mon) 07:34 [Preview] No.50701 del
(293.85 KB 1200x1625 Putinewitz.jpg)
Was thinking about what Putin said in late March/early April as they left northern Ukraine. About the demilitarization of Ukraine. I'd probably need actual quote, but.
So he said something that they finished the first stage of the special military operation, they successfully disarmed Ukraine or at least reduced her military capabilities.
But even before that Moscow publicized that their goals are "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.
This is a very Clausewitzian stance. He wrote that the aim of the war is to disarm the enemy. "Disarming" not just means taking the weapons away, since a nation's/state's/country's weapon is the army itself, so basically destroying the army - both the living and material component - is the process of disarming.

Picrel was taken from here which I have not read. But perhaps I should, the title is promising.

Bernd 07/17/2023 (Mon) 19:38 [Preview] No.50704 del
Russians now launched an offensive at Kupiansk. That's that northernmost corner.
It would make sense to return to the Oskil river, since it's a better position to defend, plus, if they want Lyman that line would secure the town from the north, so it could serve as a hub for further offensive, and not just a bulge surrounded by the enemy. That is if they manage to capture it. With the current rate of gaining ground this could take a while.
It also makes sense attacking here in the north from logistical point of view. Supplying the forces in Kherson and Zaporozhia on those slim lines which are attacked constantly, must be a pain in the ass. Even for the defensive forces holding the lines. Now cram an attacking force there too, and it's a sure hit for every shell the AFU fires. But here in the north the supply line is short, comes from different directions, air cover is sure.

Bernd 07/19/2023 (Wed) 08:05 [Preview] No.50706 del
(264.28 KB 1200x603 mortar-team.jpg)
New York Times article from 4 days ago offers numbers on the losses.
The subtitle and the elaboration of it is a bit misleading. It says:
>Early in the counteroffensive, Ukraine lost as much as 20 percent of its weapons and armor. The rate dropped as the campaign slowed and commanders shifted tactics.
>In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed
It's not clear if it's about the equipment of all the units designated for the offensive (eg. 20% of the 12 brigade), or about the units actively participating in those attacks (like the 47th mechanized, the 35th marine, the 4th tank brigades, and the others), or the actual units on the field (the companies and battalions).
I see some weird generalizations in the article too:
>the Ukrainians have so far taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.
5 miles? In depth? Where? They attack on several points. There is only 60 miles till the sea? Or 60 miles is enough? Ok, by the end they say at Velike Novosilka.
Further down in the article some solid numbers are offered.
> 47th Mechanized Brigade, [...] was set to receive 99 Bradleys
>it has visually confirmed, show that 28 of those Bradleys have been abandoned, damaged or destroyed
>nearly one-third of the original vehicles have been lost — although all but seven of them were blown up at one battleground
>The Oryx data show that only 24 tanks were lost for the entire month of June
>Ten of them were German-made Leopard tanks and mine-clearers,
>they were lost in battle with Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, one of the three units deployed early in the counteroffensive, and which was slated to receive 32 Leopards
>the brigade lost 30 percent of the Leopards it was given — all but two of them in the first week of fighting,

Bernd 07/19/2023 (Wed) 11:03 [Preview] No.50708 del
Youtubers I watch say Ukrainians said Russians have 100K+ grouping on the Lugansk front.

Bernd 07/19/2023 (Wed) 16:55 [Preview] No.50710 del
It might also force the Ukrainians to move reserves away from their offensive and send them to stop this Russian offensive.

Or maybe the Russians have started it because the Ukrainian offensive diverted resources in the first place.

Bernd 07/19/2023 (Wed) 17:14 [Preview] No.50711 del
Aforementioned youtubers said one of the 12 brigades was moved to the north. NWE supposed it's possible they were moved because for the losses they can't continue the offensive but can be used in defense. Or something.

Bernd 07/20/2023 (Thu) 14:54 [Preview] No.50713 del
EU will give €20 billion in the next four years to Ukraine as defense support. The article avoids the topic successfully, but the question offers itself: do Brussels believe the war will take at least that long? This doesn't sound like a "rebuild fund", this is specifically for arms and ammunition.

Bernd 07/23/2023 (Sun) 08:30 [Preview] No.50724 del
Considerable results on the Lugansk front near Svatove by the Russians. It's still small, but was achieved within days.
On July 17 that part of the front run straight, then on the 18th Russian crossed the Zherebets river running N-S at Karmazynivka, and two days pause came. From 21st they attack and push on, gaining more grounds.
Can they achieve a breakthrough?

Bernd 07/23/2023 (Sun) 08:51 [Preview] No.50725 del
(1.81 MB 1848x919 Karmazynivka1.png)
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From the valley of the Zherebets Russians entered a wooded area they are here now. Beyond that open fields come with the usual tree lines, and small patches of forests along a ridge line Russians should reach asap if they want to achieve anything. From there, about the region from Novoserhivka to Chernovi Stav they could launch attacks in all directions all around, like they did at Popasna.
The problem I see is that no roads leading there from the east. There is one to a bit north at Raihorodka, and to a bit south at Makiivka, but right at where the Russians attack. So from the aforementioned grouping point they have to strike one of the directions, to north or south - or both -, to acquire those roads, and attack at the end of those roads at Raihorodka or Makiivka at the same time. That could force the Ukrainians to retreat from those positions and establish a lifeline into the freshly created bulge.
And then develop the breakthrough on.
This ought to be interesting.

Bernd 07/23/2023 (Sun) 18:40 [Preview] No.50732 del
Here's DPA on the attack at Karmazynivka.
I think he overhypes this. I bet AFU will hold the line at the high ground of the ridge.

Bernd 07/23/2023 (Sun) 19:03 [Preview] No.50733 del
The chief problem for the Ukrainians what I see, is that they don't really have units to counterattack with to halt Russian advance then stabilize the front.
It seems the Russians attacked between a territorial defense brigade and a mechanized one. And then they have an ongoing offensive both to the north and south, at Kupiansk, and Kreminna. So Ukrainian units there are tied down with the defense and they might not have units to spare. They'll send some for sure. Because they have to some. But any major reinforcement has to come elsewhere.
AFU has uncommitted brigades which was prepared for the spring/summer offensive. Sending them could be an answer. They can be there relatively quick, but large columns on the move can be struck, and Russia has the tools to do that. Their route have to be covered as much as possible, which might distract units from other tasks.

That is if this deployment map is reliable at all.

Bernd 07/23/2023 (Sun) 19:39 [Preview] No.50734 del
One more thought. AFU should have local reserve both north and south of here. Those should be alerted first, and rotated out and sent back when some other force arrives to fill the gap.

Bernd 07/25/2023 (Tue) 19:52 [Preview] No.50745 del
Further advancements for the Russian army, from Makiivka to Raihorodka, but especially at the latter.
I assume Ukrainians are withdrawing to form a line at the ridge. I further assume they already moved some units there and digging in already. But from the situation, they don't really have pre-constructed, fortified positions here as they had at near Bakhmut. Since the conflict started back in 2014-2016 right at the secessionist controlled areas they had a massive fortification project, went for years. This place is a bit further out, and also was captured by Russia last year, who also did not build much of anything there, and then gave up the territory quick. So from all the places here could be a more mobile front.
Liveuamap hasn't updated yet, also went damage control and showing results at Bakhmut and Velike Novosilka.
ISW notes advancement from yesterday. In their article they pin the information that it comes from Russian milbloggers. Tomorrow we'll see what ISW writes about today.

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 04:25 [Preview] No.50756 del
According to Oryk, Ukraine has lost 47 Bradleys.

20 Destroyed, 21 damaged and 6 damaged and abandoned.

Ukraine is meant to have about 100 of them and according to the leaks(which may not be up to date) they are all in one unit so that one unit will have suffered at lost at least 50% of it's IFVs.

There are no mentions of Marder or Stryker losses which are meant to be in other earmarked brigades. So they must still be held in reserve.

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 07:19 [Preview] No.50757 del
The 47th Mech. Brigade has them. And that's the visually confirmed. So the actual loss is higher a bit. Also the damaged and abandoned might be salvaged.

Weeb Union says the main Ukrainian offensive started at Orikhov and Velike Novosilka. He cites western sources.

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 07:53 [Preview] No.50758 del
True, but they won't take further part in this offensive until they are fixed.

However, the US did send more Bradleys not long ago and so they could probably be used to replace lost vehicles if the crews are still alive.

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 12:34 [Preview] No.50762 del
(119.56 KB 600x340 niger-coup.jpg)
(31.32 KB 600x400 niger-prez.jpg)
(215.33 KB 2262x2046 sahel-countries.jpg)
Prez Mohamed Bazoum of Niger is getting couped.
Small group from the army, the Presidential Guard itself couped him up into house arrest.
God Save the Prez Hassoumi Massaoudou!
International reaction (by ECOWAS, EU, and US):
>it's problematic
>it's unconstitutional
>release the Prez
Will Niger go on Mali way? Perhaps they also invite Wagner to do what Wagner does? Do Niger has their problem with ISIL and AL Qaeda?
The countries in Sahel is getting restless. Is this some weird Sahel Spring? What's up with Chad these days?

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 16:18 [Preview] No.50763 del
It looks like Russian anti-tank ditches actually do their job. Well I guess the only way to find out was to try.

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 17:37 [Preview] No.50766 del
So they have to bridge it somehow or push dirt in it. As many places as they can to avoid creating choke points.
Apparently Ukrainians gathered about 100 armored vehicles (with tanks) for yesterday's today's main offensive, failed, then they gathered a bunch again. At Robotine (Orihiv-Tokmak).

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 17:55 [Preview] No.50767 del
Cool interview with an US veteran. He has points worth considering.
He believes about 4-5 major battles are needed to end the war, the first one was Bakhmut, and the next in line will have to be bigger.
He also says cluster munitions will be taken apart and used in IDEs spread by drones.

Bernd 07/27/2023 (Thu) 18:20 [Preview] No.50768 del
Yeah, it's probably done.

Bernd 07/28/2023 (Fri) 02:26 [Preview] No.50770 del
The Russians captured an AMX 10. I'm still not sure what happened with the Bradley.

I have heard that it would be used for that too, however there is already footage of it being used as artillery.

Bernd 07/28/2023 (Fri) 07:35 [Preview] No.50772 del
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The front is stabilizing at Svatove (the "Karmazynivka breakthrough"). Maybe this will change, but I think Ukrainians had ample time to reinforce the front, and that's it for now.

Bernd 07/28/2023 (Fri) 18:38 [Preview] No.50774 del
(1.61 MB 720x540 ow1-52z52vINwM8e.mp4)
(2.43 MB 1280x720 0Ey8ZzsqBoXRioGv.mp4)
(3.89 MB 720x528 rMCbiCpbGnHXpI-c.mp4)
New turbofolk just dropped.

Bernd 07/28/2023 (Fri) 19:33 [Preview] No.50775 del
First one is a bit too e-lack-tronic for me. The other two is better.

Bernd 07/29/2023 (Sat) 15:44 [Preview] No.50779 del
The Russian's captured a CV 90 this time, maybe. We will have to wait for images like >>50770 to be sure.

Bernd 07/30/2023 (Sun) 12:26 [Preview] No.50781 del
(10.20 MB 848x464 IMG_9420.MP4)
They released a video of the CV 90, it was hit by an RPG apparently.

Bernd 07/31/2023 (Mon) 02:10 [Preview] No.50782 del
Okay, I am fairly sure it was captured now.

Bernd 07/31/2023 (Mon) 08:14 [Preview] No.50785 del
Great banter: Ukraine calls it "successful"

Next photo: gypsies are butchering it with a hacksaw and selling the parts at recycling center.

Bernd 08/04/2023 (Fri) 20:36 [Preview] No.50800 del
Navalny got 19 years of prison. Maybe he can sign up with Wagner when they recruit in prisons again.

Bernd 08/07/2023 (Mon) 20:20 [Preview] No.50805 del
Oh no! Deadline ECOWAS gave to the coupist to restore the Prez in his office expired days ago! What's gonna happen! NOTHING

Btw Wagner made a movie about their african tour too. The title is Turist:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=PSsMOJCT6PE [Embed]
Need to get subtitles somewhere somehow.

Bernd 08/08/2023 (Tue) 10:03 [Preview] No.50807 del
Nigeria is saying they can contribute half of a 25,000 ECOWAS intervention force.
Mali and Burkina Faso are also saying they will stand by Niger and support them against any such intervention.

Things might be heating up for the great Niger-Nigeria war.

Bernd 08/08/2023 (Tue) 17:17 [Preview] No.50808 del
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Oh, what a smart man!
I'm sorry, since no twitter it's a screenshot from WillyOAM's vid, and it has hardcoded captions.
>war will become a tool for achieving political goals
This was the case since forever. And war is nothing more, just a tool to achieve political goals.
>it is possible to invade another country, occupy a part of it, organize a massacre there, and establish the right of force on this territory with the tacit consent of the world
The US does this since WWII on regular basis. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union who did the same. This is nothing new or unheard of.
But this sounds very good for Western intelligentsia who can look smart and concerned at the same time as they draw their eyebrows together, nodding, and humming, while staring with empty eyes.
He is this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykhailo_Podolyak
>Ukrainian politician, journalist and negotiator, serving as the adviser to the head of Office of the President of Ukraine
I mean yeah, he probably does what he has to.

Nigeria is talking a lot.

Bernd 08/08/2023 (Tue) 17:19 [Preview] No.50809 del
>emergency membership
Still trying to drag NATO into war and make WWIII. Ofc, from their viewpoint: who cares.

Bernd 08/09/2023 (Wed) 11:36 [Preview] No.50820 del
To be honest if the world allowed ECOWAS to intervene then war will become a tool for achieving political goals. It will become clear to everyone: it is possible to invade another country, occupy a part of it, organize a massacre there, and establish the right of force on this territory with the tacit consent of the world.

Bernd 08/09/2023 (Wed) 11:46 [Preview] No.50821 del
It's no different than normal.

Though ECOWAS acting in unison like that to achieve a geopolitical goal would be interesting.
It might be the start of an African block.

Bernd 08/09/2023 (Wed) 11:51 [Preview] No.50822 del
Indeed. It just can be told on every occasion when a war looms.

ECOWAS country leaders are just shaking in their boots they are next in line to putsched.
I would be laffed if they assembled an army, and the officers of that army decided they coup the govts.

Bernd 08/12/2023 (Sat) 06:56 [Preview] No.50841 del
Did we note the coup and civil war in Burma?
They are at it since 2021 February.

Bernd 08/12/2023 (Sat) 11:03 [Preview] No.50842 del
Don't they have multiple ethnic minority insurgencies since forever?

The Sudanese civil war is still called "conflict" on Wikipedia. "Sudanese civil war" isn't too common on Google News, either.

Bernd 08/12/2023 (Sat) 16:40 [Preview] No.50843 del
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Apparently this most recent insurgency of the Karens the same then.

Well conflict can mean all kinds of war. But it's suspicious they don't call it civil war. Or hesitant at least.

Bernd 08/17/2023 (Thu) 08:21 [Preview] No.50865 del
Ukrainians Strykers have been sent to the front, so far it looks like at least 3 have been lost.
There are videos of Challenger 2s near the front as well, not sure if they are in the same unit or even if they are in combat yet.

I wonder is this is connected with the gains made by Ukraine recently. They may have decided now is the time to commit such forces.

Bernd 08/18/2023 (Fri) 19:03 [Preview] No.50877 del
>gains made by Ukraine recently
They made gains?

Bernd 08/19/2023 (Sat) 02:11 [Preview] No.50880 del
They took Urozhaine.

Bernd 08/19/2023 (Sat) 02:18 [Preview] No.50881 del
(82.16 KB 361x348 indeed.png)

Bernd 08/19/2023 (Sat) 05:55 [Preview] No.50882 del
Oh, that.
They took Staromayorske too.

I bet you are a keinboong.

Bernd 08/23/2023 (Wed) 02:23 [Preview] No.50903 del
First recorded Marder loss, it got stuck in a trench. This video is quite lewd, don't watch if you respect the Marder's modesty.

Now only the Challenger has not made a recorded appearance yet, though I think it is part of the unit with Marders and Stykers.
So it seems that Ukraine has committed all of their best forces, they might have reserves still but they will be Soviet equipped units. Well Soviet equipment plus M113s, Bushmasters and such that they have as well.

Bernd 08/23/2023 (Wed) 17:12 [Preview] No.50905 del
OOOHHH NNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I hope he's okay.

Bernd 08/23/2023 (Wed) 17:19 [Preview] No.50906 del
(4.15 MB 592x640 Vid 223.mp4)
This is a video of the plane.

It looks as if it's been shot down or suffered a catastrophic failure in flight.

Bernd 08/23/2023 (Wed) 20:09 [Preview] No.50907 del
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Now they can use it as a bunker.

It seems info from Wagner's Telegram or whatever claims it to be so as well. Still, wouldn't be surprised if he'd turn out to be alive, would be ebin ruse. But, we probably can conclude he was "retired".

Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 07:53 [Preview] No.50909 del
>Marders, Strykers, Challangers
Historylegends talks about em.

Dmitry Utkin too.

Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 08:06 [Preview] No.50910 del
Denys Davydov has lot to say about the airplane crash. He concludes it was shot down by AA.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=8H2FGud37RQ [Embed]

Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 08:19 [Preview] No.50911 del
What do a bunch of recovering alcoholics have to gain from Wagner's death?

Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 08:56 [Preview] No.50912 del
Who are the recovering alcoholics in this equation?

Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 13:24 [Preview] No.50913 del
>Still, wouldn't be surprised if he'd turn out to be alive, would be ebin ruse.
It's possible, a plane crash is a good way to fake a death, there isn't even a need to show a body. Maybe Prigozhin now lives under a fake name as a chef in the fanciest restaurant in Niamey. But I find it far more likely Putin ordered this to set an example to potential traitors. It'll have a chilling effect but might backfire later on. A hypothetical coup plotter in Russia will now have learned two things from the Wagner mutiny: 1) you can march through several oblasts in the span of hours, with next to no opposition, because few will put their lives on the line for Putin; 2) don't stop halfway through to make a deal with Putin, he's not a man of his word. Win or die trying.

Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 13:49 [Preview] No.50914 del
What could have really sent a message is prosecuting him and the other ringleaders right after. But that did not happen. Ofc this event, not matter the real explanation and what officials will say (which can be just as real is bs), makes people think if this was an assassination ordered by Putin and could make those high up in the ranks think twice. But then it also can be thought it was Shoigu, or Gerasimov, or whoever that orchestrated this. Or that somehow Ukraine was successful, or the CIA.
And we have to keep in mind it wasn't just Prigozhin up there but Utkin too - the original "Wagner" -, and others in the upper echelons of the PMC.


Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 16:18 [Preview] No.50915 del

Bernd 08/24/2023 (Thu) 17:38 [Preview] No.50916 del
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The guy that posted the video in front of a Bradley got captured.

A shocking twist.

Bernd 08/25/2023 (Fri) 08:29 [Preview] No.50917 del
The Luck of War is a fickle thing.

Bernd 08/25/2023 (Fri) 08:46 [Preview] No.50918 del
I think that in wars like this an unfortunate reality is that pretty much all soldiers on the front line in active combat zones are going to die or be wounded or captured eventually. It's just a matter of time.

Bernd 08/26/2023 (Sat) 00:29 [Preview] No.50924 del
>What could have really sent a message is prosecuting him and the other ringleaders right after.
Freedom from prosecution was part of the deal, wasn't it? But maybe Putin could argue exile was also part of the deal and Prigozhin had failed on his part. Prosecution would give Wagner and its allies a window of opportunity to react, assassination was the safe but cowardly option.

Bernd 08/26/2023 (Sat) 00:56 [Preview] No.50925 del
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The anti-First World block has expanded. I'm not sure what it's supposed to do, other than send representatives to exchange platitudes on every yearly meeting. As an alliance it's worthless, several member states hate each other. It's supposed to be an alliance against the West, and yet India could very well accept Western help against China in certain circumstances. Maybe internal financial arrangements will give Iran more freedom to evade sanctions.

Over a decade ago, BRICS was tauted as a bloc of "emerging" powers which would one day challenge US hegemony. China and India now seem to be the only ones actually strengthening a great power status. Russia is relevant but has dug itself a hole, South Africa is going down the drain and Brazil has probably already peaked and will never escape the middle power/middle economy range.

Bernd 08/26/2023 (Sat) 02:27 [Preview] No.50926 del
True, also prosecution would have negative impacts on the reputation of Prigozhin and Wagner and thus the war effort as a whole.

This reminds me of what the Nazis did with Rommel.

It's worthless in a political sense but it might have some use economically.

Bernd 08/26/2023 (Sat) 07:57 [Preview] No.50927 del
>assassination was the safe but cowardly option.
That it was. If it was Putin.

It's an economical cooperation. They are trying to break dollar's hegemony. For a while now. But steps are taken, they may end up there one day.
Saudi joining up is impressive.
There could be other standards and considerations. The mention of lithium at Argentine is interesting. According to wikipee the top lithium producers are: Straya, Chile, China, Argentine, Brazil. US is unknown but it's up there somewhere. Will Chile join up with BRICS in the future? And producing anything in the first world is fucking expensive and will hamper their growth - especially the "transition to green energy". Example. With the war in Ukraine machine production grew on the Hungary, all my cnc buddies got extremely busy. They produce for Western customers. Which means these and similar customers did the job elsewhere: in Ukraine. Why? Because production of Western EU was moved to Ukraine because that was cheap. Actually the whole process looked like this: firs they moved it to Eastern EU, then they moved it to Ukraine, then moved back to Eastern EU.
And then key questions like will Taiwan end up in China in the end? That would corner microchip production (I think US doesn't even have a fab anymore). I'm guessing the US will do everything to prevent that, but considering they don't even fuckin ackonwledge Taiwan, and the process could be a peaceful intergration, and not through war.
Or the fate of the rest of Africa. Just look at what's going on in the countries between Nigeria and Algeria: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger...
They also set up parallel stuff liek international sporting events, or youth festivals. Reminds me of Eastern Bloc. To some extent.
Just China in herself is considered a danger to US, with other countries pitching in, situation might be worse. And there are other ties with other countries outside BRICS. It's a web or relation, and pulls on that web. I dunno.

Michael Rossi translates Russian speeches of the BRICS talks:

Bernd 08/27/2023 (Sun) 19:02 [Preview] No.50929 del
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Or we can approach from a different angle. Not from what these places have, but what The West, more closely: Europe doesn't have.
Europe has no resources. Nada. Everything has to be imported. Cheap energy is a dream. Europe has no population that could reproduce itself, all dying nations. I have to point to the politics thread, to the speech Orbán did, and the so called "decoupling" or "derisking" >>50736 Europe basically sawing off the branch she's sitting on. I don't think growthwise Europe will fare well, everything will be more expensive, and the burden of the old population (and the immigrants) will be more oppressive. Perhaps demands of reparations and such on behalf of the ex-colonies might grow.

Listened this:
It's about Ukraine of course, but relevant for Europe. One of the guy mentions a plan to create a Korea out of Ukraine. A break-line between Europe and Russia. The future is plastic. Ukraine is bought up. But for making money out of the investments situation has to be stabilized there. The place has to be safe, South Korea fared very well. But will Ukraine? A post-war development can help Europe.

Bernd 08/28/2023 (Mon) 09:24 [Preview] No.50930 del
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Another thing about BRICS is that what they talk about is creating a multipolar world instead of the monopolar, what we have now. It isn't toppling the US, but elevating other powers next to it. Same with dollar, it's not axing the dollar but introducing an alternative currency next to it. They also don't seem to promise anything quick, as far as I can see they imagine the work done in decades.
The current buzz is because the summit. Soon it will be forgotten back on the shelf and will be taken out next year, when it'll be relevant again.
And there are all those faggots who live from this buzz, the media (both on big media and social, youtubers and such), and the masses of schizos with heightened emotions for whom everything happens immediately and hype shit up unnecessarily. Those who wish to see the US fall in any minute. Those who want to see the Democrats and Biden fail. This isn't happening.
Rome did not fall in one step, from one day another or even one year to the next. It was a long dying process it started before Diocletian and went on into the Middle Ages. We won't see the US crumble in any spectacular way, but we'll be able to observe the cracks and the plaster falling off, if we really pay mind - but there will be people who will wave it away, and they won't have a hard job doing it.

Bernd 08/30/2023 (Wed) 07:43 [Preview] No.50936 del
There was another coup in Africa, this time in Gabon.

Bernd 08/30/2023 (Wed) 13:49 [Preview] No.50937 del
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What do we have here?
GlobalResearch is a Quebec based news agency/outlet, considered centrist and far from the establishment on the palette. This article above also shows they are suspicious and concerned about the US governmental manipulation happening in the background.
They claim that all these coupists in the Sahel are closely cooperating with the US government the least, and are used to push French influence out of Africa again the news outlet is Quebecois.. I do agree that the US has the motivation to order her "allies" back to leg, I wrote this on /kc/ already. And the ties of all these African officers also suspicious.
However in previous Syria threads in relation to Mali I noted what I found, that in these African countries the strata of society where political individuals can come from is so narrow that no "new" faces can appear from the nowhere, all of 'em will have their past, with its ties to this or that, or to each other.
But then, during this Niger coup, those Russian flags popped up so suddenly and readily. Russia seems like a good culprit to blame, all Westerners can eat it all up quick. Both those who hates Russia for Ukraine, and those who cheer for Russia and Wagner. If actually the US is in the background, directing the spotlight to Russia is simple and smart.

Indeed. I wanted to note that too.
Gabon is further down south, right on the Euqator, is not a Sahelan country, but also part of Francafrique ofc.
In 2019 they did a failed coup attempt.

Bernd 08/30/2023 (Wed) 16:31 [Preview] No.50938 del
I don't think it benefits the US.
Having France manage the region saves them the effort and resources in a time when we know the US lacks the resources and the drive to police regions like that any more.
We also know that there is a legitimate Russian presence in the region.

Removing France mostly benefits Russia and China.

Bernd 08/30/2023 (Wed) 18:29 [Preview] No.50939 del
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France benefits from Francafrique in many ways, and the EU too. And paying directly into France's budget is probably the smallest. Cheap resources, priority for French companies in state enterprises, they can trade in Euro (previously in Franc), which creates demand for the Euro, and whatnot.
For China Africa in general means cheap resources, but has to invest, but that money goes straight back to China because that's how they do it, they give loans to countries to build stuff, but they have to offer the contracts to Chinese companies. Sounds like a money laundering scheme to me, lel.
For Russia the whole thing means next to nothing. Russia has resources, and Russia ain't big of an investor me thinks. I think it's mostly relations, and influence, political capital. Perhaps they can sell weapons. But they have to maintain military presence, this what Wagner does.
US has the opportunity now to whip her subordinates, and neuter competing European powers. Like France. Macron dared to be upset when the US made Straya to ditch that submarine contract for theirs. Put back into his place. US doesn't have to maintain order in Africa, she does not want to take over it from France, she just wants France not having it. She's fine with chaos, and Russia keeps order for him anyway. Besides chaos allows to pump Europe full with sub-Saharan Africans, that's good according all the left-libs. This is why the stable North African regimes were overthrown too anyway. She also needn't to worry about the Chinese investments because it goes slowly, especially among unstable circumstances. In fact all the coups, rebellions, civil wars, terrorists, banditry, hampers to realization of the investments, and development, which is detrimental to China.

Bernd 08/31/2023 (Thu) 02:17 [Preview] No.50940 del
It's important strategically for Russia and they can sell arms like you say.
But also unlike the west, Russia does not spend billion sending huge amounts of high tech material to intervene in a region. They send a few guys in a hilux and maybe they send a BTR or a helicopter(though I think even then they might be using the equipment of the host nation and not providing it themselves). On top of that they then get gold mining concessions and fund themselves and even make a profit anyway.
So it doesn't cost Russia much if anything to do what it does in Africa.
We also don't know how much involvement China has in this behind the scenes, because China stands to benefit from Africa hugely. They could even be funding Wagner as well.

Russian influence over the region is not good for the US as Russia can use the Sahel to project power in other directions, like southwards into centra Africa, east into the Gulf of Aden, North into the Med and even west into South America as the distance is not that far.
Plus the benefit to China outweighs any benefit annoying France and the EU could have.

Russia could probably bring more stability to the region and it could easily bring enough to satisfy China, they don't care about human rights or democracy or anything.

Bernd 08/31/2023 (Thu) 07:57 [Preview] No.50941 del
>annoying France and the EU
It's not annoying, but gaining control. The US grip loosened, and European countries and EU thought they can become sovereign (a country is sovereign when she has control over her finances, foreign politics, and military politics - in case of EU the last two highly depends on the will of the US govt.), and create their own multipolar world where EU is elevated next to the US. They thought the € will be the next currency next to dollar. That did not happen, and now the US tightens back the grip.
It's like a lid on a pot of boiling water. The US put the lid over half the European pot in 1945 then covered it fully in 1990. But 1990 unified the contents of the pot and now the boiling water shakes the lid down, so the US sits on the lid and says: stay.

It's the Theory of Power.
Those who have no power want to gain power over themselves.
Those who have power over themselves wants to gain power over others.
Those who have power over others want to keep that power.

Bernd 09/01/2023 (Fri) 20:15 [Preview] No.50946 del
It's time for some map fantasy.
So they are driving that wedge there. From these tubers' videos I gather the assault troops and the anchors aren't the same. The assault ones (from the mechanized brigades) are rotated out and they drop territorial defense units the hold the recaptured ground.
However the width of the bulge is 10-15 kms and it can be kept under fire from three sides by the Russians. Plus units participating in the assault has to be moved from farther and farther away. The resting area where they can safely stay in cover is that group of settlements.
It seems AFU tries to widen the area by capturing Verbove (then the are north from there will fall too easily). But that will be slow. They were stuck are Robotyne for a while too. Perhaps it will be easier towards the fortification lines between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. The Russians might channel Ocheretuvate.
There is a ridge between Novop. and Verbove, I assume Russians have the fortifications there, and towards Verbove the terrain naturally channels the Ukrainan assaults.
This also makes me think the role of terrain in the go at that front. Well, everywhere. It's like a river. Water flow towards the least resistance, people usually chose the path of the least resistance too in their life. And offenses go the same. They do the recon, probe for the weakest point, where they put pressure until the enemy line breaks.
So probably the attacks will continue towards Verbove. Then the autumn rains will set in. I assume the lower lands will be more soggy. So perhaps then they'll try the ridge southward or Novop. Which is also on some height.
But rotating the troops will be harder in the mud, they need armored vehicles for that. Will the whole operation halt soon?

Bernd 09/02/2023 (Sat) 16:54 [Preview] No.50950 del
Plenty of unrest in Syria. As economic conditions deteriorate, government-controlled cities have seen a number of anti-Assad protests. Those have happened in the past, but now they notably also happen in Suwayda (the Druze province), which wasn't pro-rebel in the past.

In SDF/PYD/PKK/"yellow team" territory, Arab tribes from the DeZ Military Council are in open revolt against the Kurdish-dominated alliance and have seized a number of villages on the left bank of the Euphrates. Other Arabs have invaded in Manbij, which is both "yellow" and "red" territory, and in the process, have clashed with the Syrian army and received airstrikes from the Russian Air Force.

Bernd 09/02/2023 (Sat) 17:25 [Preview] No.50951 del
How inconvenient.

Bernd 09/03/2023 (Sun) 16:36 [Preview] No.50954 del
When will the AFU get the Abrams? November?

Bernd 09/04/2023 (Mon) 17:48 [Preview] No.50956 del
US sends depleted uranium ammo to Ukraine. What for? Considering these are armor piercing rounds what is the benefit? Ukraine can punch through Russian armor just fine, these tanks' skin are thinner than the Western counterparts anyway. And then if they are used (AFU doesn't have to use them) they will be just radioactive hazards. And let's say Ukraine takes back the clay, yuppie they made their own life harder. It's silly.

Bernd 09/05/2023 (Tue) 02:12 [Preview] No.50958 del
(18.74 MB 720x1280 IMG_4938.MP4)
First visual confirmation of a Challenger 2 loss in the war. Which also means it's the first Challenger 2 loss ever.

That's what I thought too and the British did the same with the tanks they sent.
The only reason I can think of is maybe it's a situation like with the Cluster munitions where they are sending them essentially because they don't use them any more and it's something they can spare.

Bernd 09/05/2023 (Tue) 03:02 [Preview] No.50977 del
>US sends depleted uranium ammo to Ukraine. What for? Considering these are armor piercing rounds what is the benefit?

Maybe they're trying to do another Chernobyl incident. But on purpose and on all sides of the conflict. Just make life unbearable and miserable for people for no reason. So depressing :((

Bernd 09/05/2023 (Tue) 07:31 [Preview] No.50983 del
>challenger 2
The smokey one right at the start? The other looks T-72 or something.
It sounds like the bloke got a shrapnel or something.
>because they don't use them any more and it's something they can spare.
You might be right.

It sucks balls. Problem is everyone sees differently how it should end.

Bernd 09/05/2023 (Tue) 12:00 [Preview] No.50985 del
Yes, the one at the start.

Bernd 09/05/2023 (Tue) 16:30 [Preview] No.50986 del
(63.46 KB 1280x720 rustem-umerov.jpg)
Ukraine has new defense minister. He's Crimean Tatar, Muslim as well. Sounds very inclusive.

Bernd 09/05/2023 (Tue) 16:31 [Preview] No.50987 del
To be honest, if he was Hungarian he looks like someone who'd participate in governmental corruption and I wouldn't trust 10 HUF on him.

Bernd 09/06/2023 (Wed) 20:14 [Preview] No.50996 del
It's time to bump back the this thread to the top of the page. I put this here because it is very much related to the war.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=KJk96n7IOLw [Embed]
Roman says at 6:53:
>my whole point here is that if Russia was to take a slightly different route at a certain point in its existence, and actually tried to build, you know, friendly ties with Europe and the West and whatnot, I think it would be pretty plausible that, by now Russians probably have visa free travel in the European Union, and once again the regular people would be just living a more safe, less stressful, more affluent life, that they deserve
Essentially putting the blame on Russia, well on Russian leaders that why weren't they more friendlier with the West. In previous videos he mentions Putin getting close to NATO, to the point that the idea Russian membership could be floated to the public.
I think he forgets that relations are two sided. You can be as friendly as possible, but the other side still remain a military alliance that was formed against you. NATO was created against the Soviet Union, and after the fall of the SU, an enemy is still needed to justify its existence. The NATO cannot be an anti-China organization, for all the fugging countries in it has no fear that China just roll over and annex them. NATO is basically Europe, Turkey and USA. A whole fucking continent is between them, in military sense only East and South East Asia has anything to fear from China, and even them not that much. Russia is the only viable option as a boogeyman for NATO.
There was never a chance for Russia to be best buddies with the West.
Now this isn't his main point in this video, but this is a weak point in his reasoning in general.

Bernd 09/06/2023 (Wed) 20:28 [Preview] No.50997 del
Note: NATO is a defensive military alliance, it was created so member countries can react together against outside aggression towards any member. They don't have to go to war when one of the member states initiate it. They had to participate in the "War of Terror", had to go to war in the Middle East and Central Asia because a members state, the USA was attacked with 9/11. Sure NATO would go to war if North Korea would launch a ICBM into the US (or any other member state), but North Korea isn't any threat in general, unlikely she will invade Lithuania for example...

Bernd 09/07/2023 (Thu) 16:37 [Preview] No.50998 del
First 10 Abrams is arriving to Ukraine this weekend. Getting this from WillyOAM.

Bernd 09/12/2023 (Tue) 16:42 [Preview] No.51016 del
News about Ukraine getting Gripens from Sweden are getting more frequent since the beginning of August.

Coincidently 3 days ago this was I saw in the Hungarian news:
It's about the Hungarian Defence Forces notify the population that our Gripens will fly more frequently and that they'll experience more noise between Sept 11 and 14. As I previously suggested we might train Ukrainian pilots, or play some role in the deal with Sweden.

Bernd 09/14/2023 (Thu) 19:38 [Preview] No.51018 del
Another Nagarno-Karabakh war is incoming?
There are reports from over a week ago about military buildup by the Azerbaijanis. And some border clashes since. I'm not sure what was before that, but I can guess never entirely peaceful, and goes on since forever.
There is something about some corridor and illegal election and whatnot.
Last time Azerbaijan outgunned Armenia and the local militias. Remember the drone strikes and such. Armenia needed some air defense and electronic warfare (anti-uav) capability badly. Have they invested in any?
Israel-Azeri relations are better and better, I'm reading they are "strategic partners", and Israel supplied weapons, drones to them the last time as well, and they are doing since. Israel is friendly due to Iranian threat.
Iran-Azeri relations also seem to be normal and unlikely it will back Armenia.
It doesn't look good for Armenia. There was some Russian peacekeeping force there. What's up with those? In Ukraine?

Bernd 09/17/2023 (Sun) 02:20 [Preview] No.51024 del
>Armenia needed some air defense and electronic warfare (anti-uav) capability badly. Have they invested in any?
This was one of the first Google results:

The opposition accuses the government of complacency with national defense. The government claims it has bought new military hardware but refuses to elaborate.

Bernd 09/17/2023 (Sun) 05:28 [Preview] No.51026 del
Sounds like another day of corruption in sunny Caucasus.
Buying arms not enough, units needs to be set up, troops needs to be trained.
I guess the Ukrainian war spit into the soup well enough tho.

Bernd 09/17/2023 (Sun) 07:31 [Preview] No.51027 del
What's the end goal?

Bernd 09/17/2023 (Sun) 11:46 [Preview] No.51028 del
You need a hat, Bernd.

Bernd 09/18/2023 (Mon) 16:17 [Preview] No.51031 del
An F-35 was hijacked and has landed in Cuba.
I wonder what Cuba will do with it, they could give it to Russia of course but there is also a chance they might give it back to the US in return for something.
I kind of don't think it even matters if Russia gets there hands on it though, I doubt they could build them anyway. Maybe China could though.

Bernd 09/18/2023 (Mon) 16:34 [Preview] No.51032 del
Couple of people are shitting themselves in the Pentagon now, I bet.
I dunno how relations stands between Cuba and Russia/China. Things changed since the '60s.

Bernd 09/18/2023 (Mon) 16:42 [Preview] No.51033 del
I find articles the pilot ejected and the plane flew on, like that Polish Mig or Su. I saw an extwitter tweet on a nitter instance or something saying it's in Havana.

Bernd 09/18/2023 (Mon) 17:46 [Preview] No.51034 del
WillyOAM talks about murders in the foreign legion in recent videos. One of the deceased was a thief apparently, who got tortured and murdered by his fellow legionnaires. Fellow soldiers said the thief deserved punishment, but this was excessive and unlawful, a crime in itself, it should have gone through the official paths.
I say it might had been an act of desperation. It is possible that the soldiers feel frustrated because of the lack of success of the offensive, or that their unit gets hammered so much, they suffered losses, or they feel powerless just sitting in the trench, or all the above and else similar, and those who did the deed - perhaps with the knowledge of the others in the unit - overreacted for their frustration. Desperate measures in desperate times. Some people are (more) violent if things aren't going in their way. They start to look for scapegoats, and outlets they can fulfill their anger, and if they can feel its justified, the better.
Will be more of this? Or these happen often, we just see these couple of occasions?
And have to return to a previous point: after the war we have to deal with these people. They'll be great acquisitions for various mafias.

Bernd 09/19/2023 (Tue) 05:57 [Preview] No.51044 del
It looks like the F-35 thing was just nonsense, the pilot ejected but it remained in the air, but they found it somewhere in the US.

I don't think it's desperation or anything. The people going overseas to fight in these conflicts tend to have issues, they pretty much all have no direction or meaning to life and a lot of them have other issues as well. Added to that the international legion itself is run terribly and it's quite lawless and corrupt, that is why most foreign volunteers don't join the foreign legion they instead join units attached to other UAF formations.

I'm surprised this has not happened already.

Bernd 09/19/2023 (Tue) 06:56 [Preview] No.51047 del
>in these conflicts tend to have issues, they pretty much all have no direction or meaning to life and a lot of them have other issues as well
This is why it's easier for them to deviate from the norms when things turn sour.

Bernd 09/19/2023 (Tue) 12:59 [Preview] No.51048 del
It looks like the conflict is starting up in Nagorno-Karabakh again. The Azeris have started hitting Karabakh forces.

It's unfortunate but I don't have much hope for the Armenians in this and I don't think anybody is going to help them. Iran is the most likely to do something at this point and that says a lot.

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 07:20 [Preview] No.51050 del
Looks like it. Have to get updated on the events.

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 07:24 [Preview] No.51051 del
>just nonsense
What's a few billion to the jew anyway? Chump change.

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 07:34 [Preview] No.51052 del
What's have to do with the Jew?
As for the US, I don't think it's about the money. It's about prestige and embarrassment. And ofc possible loss of tech, design, engineering secrets (if it was landed in Cuba, and given to Chiner or Russia).

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 07:47 [Preview] No.51053 del
Who do you think is behind teh military-industrial complex?

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 07:50 [Preview] No.51054 del
What is this behind you talking about? How would anybody behind it?

Nagorno-Karabakh War III ? Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 09:04 [Preview] No.51055 del
Here's the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, based on liveuamap.
1. There was a push on behalf of Azerbaijan from Susha towards Stepanakert in the south.
1a. Azeris reported Armenians firing in the direction of Agdam.
2. Another push from Charektar to Gatevan in the north.
|. All around reported that firing continues in the whole line of contact.
?. Why there is seemingly no activity in these places?

The last conflict ended in a ceasefire on 2020 November 10th. Which means a pause, a halt in the war, but not an end of it. Azerbaijan gained territories which were held by Armenia since 1994. They acquired those lands in the first war after the dissolution of the Soviet Union which both countries were member states of.
Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh as Armenians call it is mostly inhabited by Armenians and the mother country wanted to secure it so they essentially conquered the land around it - with the Azerbaijani majority population on it. These were reclaimed by the Azeris in 2020. It seems they want more now.
According to the ceasefire agreement Russian peacekeepers were deployed to secure the corridor connecting Armenia and Artsakh. And perhaps other places too.
Additional information:
- on paper the Armed Forces of Armenia (AFA) has no presence in Nagorno-Karabakh, only local militias defending the place;
- the whole population of the region is ~150 000;
- in comparison: Armenia has 3 million, Azerbaijan 10 million.
The Azerbaijani Armed Forces (AAF) outmatches Artsakh's in every way, basically they have almost as many soldiers as the whole population of the place, and have limitless resources in comparison to the ten goats the Armenians have there.
So place your bets.

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 09:11 [Preview] No.51056 del
Details following liveuamap.
Russian peacekeepers suck.
Israelis testing AA system in Azerbaijan.
Azeris getting the "go ahead" from Erdog.
Russian peacekeepers are still in the way.
AFA has no forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. I bet they have a couple of people. Far, far from enough to hold even their bunkbeds.
Azeris reheating the conflict.
Armenia won't back Artsakh.
France stares strict at Azerbaijan, and worried at Nagorno-Karabakh.

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 09:34 [Preview] No.51057 del
So here's the answer why nothing is conducted in the north and the west.
There are virtually no roads, just mountain ranges. In the west there are some minor roads in the valleys as the ranges run east-west, but they don't look serviceable for military operations, or at least easily blocked and defended by minor forces.
What easily accessible is:
- in the NE, the town of Martakert;
- in the SE, the town of Martuni;
The open ways into Artsakh are:
- in the S, from Susha to Stepanakert
- in the center E, from Aghdam to Stepanakert
- in the NW, from Charektar to Gatevan
- in the NE, from Martakert to a bunch of tiny settlements in the center of the region.

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 09:34 [Preview] No.51058 del
While I was typing all this the whole conflict might just finished.

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 09:50 [Preview] No.51059 del
What the deal will be? Keep Nagorno-Karabakh as a DMZ? Forever or when the Azeris decide to move in? Or will be annexed?

Bernd 09/20/2023 (Wed) 11:07 [Preview] No.51060 del
It looks like it's over now.
I'm not sure what deal will be made but even if they do say they are going to keep it as a DMZ or whatever it won't mean anything.

The bottom line is that if there are no Arminian forces there, the Karabakh forces are disbanded and all equipment is removed form the area, then they are completely defenceless and whatever the Azeris decided to do they can't stop it.

It's a complete defeat pretty much.

Bernd 09/21/2023 (Thu) 07:36 [Preview] No.51061 del
Meanwhile spat around the Ukrainian grain continues.
There was a trade ban in effect in Polan, Northern Hungary, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, which banned the selling of Ukrainian grain in these countries. They did allow the transit of it towards countries that wished to buy it.
Now Ukraine complains about these countries at World Trade Organization. In response Polan said they'll stop arm transfers to Ukraine and will concentrate on arming themselves. Well, that's what you get when you kick into your supporters.
But. Did any arms they could give left in Polan at all? I suppose they pretty much run out at this point.
Another thing that nags me: why Ukrainian grain means such a danger to local farmers? Wasn't it prior 2022? It became so cheap that would kill local farmers? But if they sell Ukrainian grain locally, that means less Ukrainian grain for farther countries, which means local farmers could sell their grain there.
The whole issue smells fishy to me.

Bernd 09/21/2023 (Thu) 12:19 [Preview] No.51063 del
It's always cheaper to sell to countries close by and the European market will pay more for it than the Arab market, what's cheap enough to out-price European farmers is probably still higher than the Arabs pay.

Plus I think there is an infrastructure issue. The Ukrainians can't get all their grain to market because of the Russians in the black sea(because most their grain was exported that way). This means that Ukraine has grain that's hard to export so they want to send that to the European market instead.

But anyway, it's odd that the Polish president said what he did. Words like that are incredibly reckless and irresponsible in a time like this, if the alliance starts to look like it's fragmenting it's only going to unravel further.
Maybe that's the intention, maybe this is a prelude to a peace settlement.

Bernd 09/22/2023 (Fri) 19:40 [Preview] No.51067 del
>It's always cheaper to sell to countries close
Not necessarily true. Depends on some factors, like local production, or tariffs, or whatnot. Also if distance would matter then selling locally would be the cheapest.
>cheap enough to out-price European farmers
Not necessarily true. Depends on some factors. For example Western Euro farmers hate competition, and they can sell their crap in Eastern EU (in typical agricultural countries - like Hungary - too) dirt cheap, due to subsidies they get from their govts. and perhaps from EU too. Heh I bet Western govts. pressured Eastern EU countries to ban Ukrainian grain the first place, we'll never know.
>infrastructure issue.
EU countries contesting with each other who can offer their ports for export quicker. Croatia too.
>Maybe that's the intention, maybe this is a prelude to a peace settlement.
That sounds like an astute observation, you might be right.
This offensive doesn't going anywhere and good for nothing but to waste human and material resources. Perhaps NATO bigwigs think Russia doesn't prepare any major attack, they are comfy allowing Ukraine to do it and let them bleed out. It would be easier for Ukraine to sat behind the lines too. Maybe there really aren't much more weapons to give. Must be people in the West who also rather want peace like this (have investments in Ukraine). The question is how to pressure Ukraine to sit down and negotiate? How to give justification for the Ukrainian people to accept the losses?
Also some news says the USA will raise artillery ammo production to 100K per month... by 2030. That won't help Ukraine today.

Bernd 09/26/2023 (Tue) 14:20 [Preview] No.51073 del
Shit is so cash.
I can't find an article before the apologizing, when they simply reported the event. There must be some.
Anyway. He did not fought against Russia, he fought against the Soviet Union.
Kek >>>/qrbunker/132308

Bernd 09/29/2023 (Fri) 19:22 [Preview] No.51078 del
Caspian Report made a video on Iran-Afghanistan relations.

He added a graph about the opium production (see picrel), showing how it dropped after the 2022 ban by the Talibans. I tried to find a source (not much effort) but noone is willing to show any data. It's easy to find articles that carping about the soaring opium production after they took over the country, or saying that banning opium is actualy bad, or claiming that now they moved to cook meth instead. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.


Caspian Report mentions, that most farmers are now growing wheat, which alleviates the hunger the country fell in. He notes however that grain isn't that profitable, poor Afghan farmers. Now Afghanistan literally has no imports. During US occupation, import got created, people started to buy smartphones and they also needed electricity to make them work. Both was imported. Otherwise they need nothing. Except food if there is hunger in the country. But with food produced locally... what would they spend their money anyway?!

Bernd 10/02/2023 (Mon) 11:05 [Preview] No.51086 del
>Now Afghanistan literally has no imports. During US occupation, import got created, people started to buy smartphones and they also needed electricity to make them work. Both was imported. Otherwise they need nothing.
If their economy recovers, energy imports will return to their pre-Taliban trend. It would be smart if the Afghan government attracted foreign investors to exploit their huge untapped energy production potential.

Bernd 10/02/2023 (Mon) 11:08 [Preview] No.51087 del
>fought against Russia

Bernd 10/02/2023 (Mon) 13:02 [Preview] No.51088 del
Afghanistan already has a beef over rivers and runoff and irrigation and whatnot with Iran. This could only work with the involvement of Iran, perhaps they could be the source of foreign investment. But for that they'd need better relations and will on the decision making level.

Bernd 10/03/2023 (Tue) 17:56 [Preview] No.51095 del
(10.82 KB 650x400 drone-with-flag.jpg)
Thinking about anti-drone struggles, like how they counter them. On one hand there is the electronic warfare capabilities, and they are shooting 'em with rockets and machine guns, and the bushjumper troops on the ground using shotguns... it's all nice and dandy. But imagine you are some grunt in the pit and you notice a drone hovering above your head... how do you tell it's your own, or the enemy's? And they don't just use one drone, since it's relatively cheap and order them from Aliexpress by the hundreds, chances are there will be a dozen drone hovering over your head, how do you tell the difference? It's not like they towing a giant Ukraine and Russia flags.

Bernd 10/04/2023 (Wed) 01:00 [Preview] No.51096 del
A low tech solution would be to paint the bottom a specific colour.

An organised army(so neither of those involved in this conflict) could probably add some kind of protocol for it, like if an artillery battery wants to send a drone they look over a map to see what path it takes and then send a warning to any position it passes over that at such and such a time a drone will pass and be active in an area. Though that still isn't the best solution as often both sides will have drones in an area at the same time anyway.

But also, modern soldiers are increasingly getting battle management systems on tablets and such to get an understanding of where everything is. It would probably not be hard to link drones in with them, so you if you are wondering whose drone it is you just open up your tablet and look.

Bernd 10/04/2023 (Wed) 11:19 [Preview] No.51097 del
(265.53 KB 1120x747 giraffe.jpg)
Giraffe from Odessa was relocated upon to the Hungary. Took 4 months of preparation.

Those all sounds solutions to some extent, but all has drawbacks or shortcomings.

Bernd 10/04/2023 (Wed) 11:26 [Preview] No.51098 del
Taken this from WillyOAM, for no Telegram.
Same as him, I do not believe these numbers are in a greetings relation with the reality.

Bernd 10/06/2023 (Fri) 11:43 [Preview] No.51103 del
HistoryLegends added a video about Turkey's foreign military actions. Special Kebab Operation. Good addition to the Syria topic, and might be worth a bit of "research". If I had the time.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZjyN7HGu2K8 [Embed]

Bernd 10/08/2023 (Sun) 16:55 [Preview] No.51108 del
>mini nuclear reactor
Where is my power armor?

Apperently Prigo and Co. died for they played with grenades in the plane while high on drugs.
>grenades detonated inside the aircraft
>plane crash victims may have been using alcohol or drugs onboard

Bernd 10/08/2023 (Sun) 18:43 [Preview] No.51109 del
Is Ukraine is getting flushed down the toilet?
Druncker stating the truth:
Do they prepare the readers that Ukraine might not the Paragon of Democracy current EU leaders said since the beginning of the conflict?
Meanwhile new US-ian budget ignores Ukraine (ofc they might find funds otherwise, but...).
Meanwhile mainstream Western media outlets acknowledge the failure of the "counter"offensive.
Is it time to let the hand of Ukraine go?
A new, more urgent conflict came up suddenly too. In Israel. Fucking home page of Politico while I looked up that article above.
>sanctions don't stop Russia
This article: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/08/biden-major-weapons-transfer-israel-00120520
...says the US has separate funds to help Israel. I bet Israel has it's own section in the US budget, if we would see a pie chart one slice would be just that. Always was, always will, the 51st state.
Will this conflict be enough to distract the US from Ukraine?
I'm sure Republicans would support this 100%. Democrats are known expressing some minor doubts towards Israel when it comes to the Palestinians. Human rights and such. And ofc. some minorities of the US has some ties to Islam as well. But, it's Hamas and Iran so this shouldn't be a problem.
However in Europe, in Western Europe, the Muslim population is larger and larger. Since the immigration wasn't regulated in the past 8 years god knows who entered the EU and the UK. There could be a pressure from the Muslim voters to try and check Israel, and/or attacks can happen against Jewish targets all over (Western) Europe. Things can become quite uncomfortable.

What I'm curious about is the reaction of the Hungarian government. They did not support the Ukraine support, will the support the Israel support? Unomwhatamsayn?
Checked Hungarian media. Both on the govt./Fidesz side and the opposition's. Both are about the Jewish losses, civilian dead, and kidnapped women. All the politicians queuing to offer a shoulder to cry on for Israel. Some outlets mentions supposed wrongdoings against Palestinians, and the Gaza conflict, but not much details in that. Very little about Ukraine. In fact I saw a title that criticizes Ukraine and it wasn't in pro-govt. media.

Bernd 10/09/2023 (Mon) 01:44 [Preview] No.51110 del
I heard that part of the resources allocated to Ukraine were already being diverted to Israel.

Not that they need them, this will only end one way. I suspect that Gaza may no longer be independent after this.

Bernd 10/09/2023 (Mon) 06:52 [Preview] No.51111 del
I concur.
Plus I don't believe it will take long.
I cannot imagine what the Hamas thought they can achieve, I don't think this was a "sudden unexpected" attack on their behalf. Perhaps the size of it, but this is an ongoing conflict. Even in OP the Syria map shows Israeli airstrikes, they are attacking into Syrian territory (with Iran backed Hamas cells) for years now.
Now they have Israel vs. Palestine on livemap. One of the strongest militaries of Earth vs. a none-existent country.
I don't think there is any doubt how this will end.

Bernd 10/09/2023 (Mon) 09:49 [Preview] No.51112 del
It might be worthy to note:
Palestine is not equal with Hamas
Palestinian people is not equal with Hamas
It reminds me of the War on Terror, when terrorists aren't an ethnicity, a nation, a country, but war had to be declared, an enemy had to be attacked.
Sure guerillas or terrorists do work within the people, but they aren't them.

I tried to read some Israeli news outlets. Haaretz (liberal, opposition, it's paywalled to death, anti-adblocker-blocker too, the shekel must flow) blames Bibi. Jerusalem Post (conservative/right-wing) gives me 403 Restricted error for me on PM, and "no https was found" on FF, "page is not working" on Chromium... What the...
Hamodia blabbers about how the synagogue in Armenia/Yerevan was vandalized, reflecting Armenian-Jewish relations well.

Bernd 10/09/2023 (Mon) 17:57 [Preview] No.51114 del
What role the drones will play in this war?
Ofc, Israel has advanced systems, but Ukraine shows, the cheapest solutions can be used effectively, commercial civilian drones can be purchased and altered by he Hamas - or others if they want to intervene.
I just saw a footage, a bomb dropped onto a Merkava, disabling it (and then they capture the crew), so Hamas have drones.

Bernd 10/11/2023 (Wed) 10:01 [Preview] No.51132 del
Ukraineboos, nafobots and such are 100% confused. They love Armenia and hate Azerbaijan, but love Israel.

Bernd 10/12/2023 (Thu) 17:59 [Preview] No.51140 del
(562.72 KB 1280x1264 Gaza-map.png)
This thing in Israel is still ongoing. It's day 6 which is quite long considering.
This was quite prepared and ingenious attack. For starters that the Hamas managed to surprise the Jews, and then the volume, the tools, and for last the coordination.
They disabled watchtowers, breached the fences on the surface, by-passed fences via tunnels, infiltrated strongpoints in Israeli uniforms, disabled tanks with drones and rpgs, mobile troops invaded Israel on cars, motorbikes, gliders and boats. They fired massive amount of rockets, took prisoners.
The reply is also massive. Bombing and shelling, the leveling of the blockaded Gaza strip is ongoing. Israel mobilized reservists, handed out weapons to militias. They strike with all their might.
But let's make it clear: the real conflict is ongoing since '48 essentially, the siege of Gaza is ongoing for years. The attack of the Hamas on October 7th is just the latest chapter.

Bernd 10/12/2023 (Thu) 18:18 [Preview] No.51143 del
Meanwhile in Ukraine the Ukrainian offensive is halted essentially.
Russia has the initiative all along the front, launched attacks, and started a major push at Avdiivka. I highly doubt it will end in much results, but that's what it is. It seems for now they try to gain ground north and west of the settlement, might be trying to encircle it. We'll see.

Bernd 10/13/2023 (Fri) 11:58 [Preview] No.51144 del
(42.96 KB 800x370 vaskupola.jpg)
Hungarian pro-Fidesz/govt. media following Orbán and the party line, reacts harshly towards the Hamas and Palestinians in general. They are terrorists, Israel was attacked, murder of innocents. They also tie it together with migration, and migrational politics, and they alarm about the pro-Palestinian demonstrations all over Western Europe, and that they won't allow this on the Hungary. Orbán went and said, that a pro-Palestinian demonstration in itself is a danger of terror. There is no freedom of assembly on the Hungary ofc...
They even say that the Palestinians are financed by Soros. Kek.
Anyway headlines seems to be all about migrants and their attacks in the West. Little to nothing about the actual events in Gaza.

Opposition media is a hint more objective. They essentially just present the fact that pro-Palestinian demonstrations are held, just as pro-Israel ones, all over the world.
When presenting the events in Gaza they use more neutral language, albeit they call the Hamas fighters terrorists consistently. They also take over statements of Hamas and publish them.

My question is will be Orbán and Zelensky best buddies from now on?

Bernd 10/13/2023 (Fri) 15:10 [Preview] No.51145 del
The Russian representative to the UN said that Ukraine's offensive has ended. Probably true.
I wonder what the west will do now? It's pretty clear that in order to make a dent they are going to need to send much more than they have.

Bernd 10/13/2023 (Fri) 15:28 [Preview] No.51146 del
This goes to the press survey too: Ukraine war is essentially dropped everywhere in Hungarian media (just like in western, see Politico somewhere above). There are some "Putin was in the attack against Israel" titles.
I dunno. The situation in Israel is a great distraction from the failure of the offensive. People won't remember what happened with that. The topic of Ukraine can and I believe will come up. But Ukraine is fucked. They still can try the fighterjet angle, and send more Abrams or whatever. Perhaps more HIMARSes, Polan ordered hundreds, Ukraine has what, 18? But now the new border is solidifying doesn't matter who recognize what. The occupied territories become de facto Russia.
But wait! Ukraine wanted to bomb Iran for the drones they are making. Ofc US told them it's stupid, the NATO won't do this act of war.
Now US and Israel can bomb Iran for financing, training, and equipping terrorists that attacked Israel. Accidentally all drone factories.

Bernd 10/13/2023 (Fri) 15:40 [Preview] No.51148 del
>Among the suggestions for action by Ukraine’s western allies – at which they would probably baulk – are “missile strikes on the production plants of these UAVs in Iran, Syria, as well as on a potential production site in the Russian federation”.
>The document goes on: “The above may be carried out by the Ukrainian defence forces if partners provide the necessary means of destruction.”

Bernd 10/13/2023 (Fri) 17:57 [Preview] No.51149 del
About Turkey and Erdogan, in relation to the Gaza conflict.
Turkey has overlapping interests with Israel, at least some, which serves as basis of cooperation. The article notes the question of Azerbaijan. I also would add that Israel helps for Turkey to deny the Armenian genocide - because many (not all) Israeli decision makers and even scientists, historians believe that acknowledging genocides are cheapen the Holocaust (Israel typically and strategically don't recognizes other genocides).

Bernd 10/14/2023 (Sat) 17:02 [Preview] No.51150 del
This grouping at Orikhiv...
7 mechanized brigades
4 brigades of the national guard (3 mechanized)
1 air assault brigade
1 air mobile brigade
1 Jäger brigade
and some assorted units together about another brigade perhaps
That's like 15 brigades. How ground down they have to be!
I bet at the very tip the 47th Mechanized brigade was ground through several times. They were at that position (the tip of the attacking spearhead) throughout the whole operation. Ukrainians use their units along US doctrine and when they put one unit to the front, it'll stay there the whole time, it isn't rotated out to rest and refill the ranks, but reinforcement is sent to them. I bet all the outer brigades donated soldiers to it, this is how those participated in the fight.
So the whole grouping was liek 45-50K soldiers I think. Now how many they can be?

Compare to this: >>50475 in late June.
At Orikhiv they started out with 2-3 brigades on the front (and some more at the back). Should have kept tabs on this to see how they directed more units there.

Bernd 10/15/2023 (Sun) 18:07 [Preview] No.51156 del
I see the topic of "what was the Hamas thinking??!!" coming up here and there. Both online and offline.
They are way out of their league compared to the Israel Defense Forces. Ofc, they won't fight an open battle but asymmetrical war, but there is no question, the Jewish army can flatten the whole Gaza strip, and has enough man- and firepower to go through the place, house to house, rubble heap to rubble heap and liquidate any armed Palestine there. Probably causing harm to many civilians on the way.
Now that I'm thinking about it, even their attack wasn't even that high in volume. How many soldier/guerrilla/terrorist/whatever of theirs went out and participated the attack into Israel on foot (by glider, boat, bike, etc.). Really just the amount of rockets was large. How many man left Gaza? Hundreds? A thousand? That's nothingburger.
Hmm. Maybe in a defensive scenario... They estimate the Hamas troops about 40K. Right now Israel is amassing 500K. But that 500K aren't all boots on the ground who have to go in and poke into the strong points of the Hamas. And they aren't all proficient in all that. If it comes to a ground operation, many of them will die. I imagine the Hamas has prepared bunkers, tunnels, and traps. I'm sure the IDF (and the assorted intelligence agencies) are know this. So will they move into Gaza? Or will they be fine by just levelling it? Either way humanitarian catastrophe (implications of war crimes, genocide) is guaranteed. Probably right at this point it's already guaranteed.
And probably Hamas was aware of this too.
So was this their endgame?
Provoking Israel for a reaction is one thing, only the means, the real events, the real consequences will come after that. They pushed the first domino, but will the rest take the route they planned for it? Or will they fall into some other direction and trigger other events?

Bernd 10/16/2023 (Mon) 07:36 [Preview] No.51161 del
(267.61 KB 1004x533 2023-10-16-egypt.png)
Egypt will open border for a while. I assume they set up some camp refugees can leave to.
To be honest it's just another push of displacement of Palestinians from Israel. Perhaps the Jews will take Gaza city this time like they took all worthwhile lands. Palestinians can go live in the desert or in some other countries for all they care.

Bernd 10/16/2023 (Mon) 18:35 [Preview] No.51163 del
I think the Israel vs. Palestine struggle went long enough to ask the question: what would be the solution?
The story in short:
- Palestine was part of the Ottoman Empire, with nominal amount of Jews who always lived there.
- In the 19th century the Zionist movement emerged which aimed to establish a country for the Jews in Palestine. For all their effort, it just did not play out.
- In 1917 Balfour, foreign minister/secretary of the UK sent a mail to one of the Rothschilds, a leading figure of the Bri'ish Jewry at that time, stating the UK govt. supports a Jewish homeland there. He also stated that the rights of the locals should be preserved/guaranteed.
- With the end of WWI the Ottoman Empire was dismantled, and the "Bri'ish Mandate" was set up, Palestine got under temporary Bri'ish rule, the clock was set to 1948 to expire.
- This was in 1923 I think, but since then the Jews started to move in en masse.
- By 1948 the Jews established armed groups, which they used to kick out the Palestinians from their homes and properties and towns right after the Brits left, and established Israel, and they imagined a border for it.
- Since then more and more Jews moved in, and more and more Palestinians were kicked out, put into camps both within Israel and in the neighbouring lands.
- Couple of regulations were issued or suggested, by UN, the latest I think the Oslo accord in 1993, none enforced or mattered.
So, what could be a solution, and make everyone live in peace?
Let's say the first UN regulation were enforced which divided Palestine into a Jewish and Palestinian state about 50%-50%. Both sides would be at the throat of the other, Jews would demand more (for their rapidly growing population from immigration, and anyway), and the Palestinians would snarl the same since their own land were taken from them (and their population is also growing rapidly due to abundant births).
So it really seems so that it would be peace if one side wouldn't exist. Or wouldn't.
Without Jews maybe Palestine itself on the inside would be more or less peaceful, but they would fall into the Middle East dividedness, for example along the Sunni-Shiia rupture and the killing would go on.
Then what if only the Jews remain? They would push for Greater Israel, "from the Nile to the Euphrates". Maybe not as a state policy, but Jewish settlers, radicals, zealots would move further and further and the Jewish state could only but protect her citizens (like how they colonize the West Bank). There would be wars with neighbouring countries, again falling into the Middle Eastern turbulence.
Picrel I picked because it was nice and colorful, will suit as illustration.

Bernd 10/16/2023 (Mon) 18:40 [Preview] No.51164 del
(36.96 KB 1397x677 umayyad-caliphate.png)
But then we have to fix the Middle East right? Easier said than done, but it seems it would be easier without the Jews. Bring on the Caliphate!
Right at it's establishment they would fuck with us. Bring the war to us. Bring Islam to us. Europe would be plowed properly and not by just Trucks of Peace and the occasional beheadings.
So apparently to me it seems still this is the best timeline what we have considering. There is no way to unfuck the situation on Israel-Palestine, nor the Middle East. At least we should enjoy that we are relatively safe. From them, we have our own problems.

Bernd 10/16/2023 (Mon) 18:44 [Preview] No.51165 del
Additional information: much of the tension in the Middle East is for foreign meddling. US, Israel, Soviet Union/Russia, and the local Muslim powers, Turkey, Saudis, Iran, and the rest. They are all trying to profit from creating some chaos elsewhere in the neighbourhood.

Bernd 10/17/2023 (Tue) 01:16 [Preview] No.51166 del
Yeah, it's a mess.

Though in some ways it has already mostly been sorted, the Palestinians are isolated with little support and it's only a matter of time before Israel gets full control.
I think the region is broadly stable now, a few decades ago the Egyptians, Jordanians and Syrians would have jumped at this and launched an invasion of Israel from all sides. Now they won't, well Syria would if they could but the others have more or less accepted Israel and don't want to rock the international boat.

Bernd 10/17/2023 (Tue) 08:00 [Preview] No.51167 del
>it's only a matter of time before Israel gets full control.
It won't get sorted because then the issue will be taken beyond to Israel's border. While it's not an openly declared policy on behalf of Israel, but settlers will push beyond. Abraham is from Ur, Moses is from Egypt. They can find reasons why it's legitimate for them to move there. Then the state has to intervene on their behalf. It's a colonization tactic.
But Israel state has it's own ambitions in the region similar to Turkey, Saudis, and Iran. They'll go out and destabilize neighbours to gain influence. To remove regimes, and help others to gain power. And perhaps move in as peacekeeping forces, and then move settlers in.
>broadly stable now
51% stable
Couple of local powers (Israel, Saudi, Turkey, Iran), some minor noones (Jordan), some meh (Egypt, Tunisia), and some really fucked countries (Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen). There are plenty of reasons to do some chaos. From various oil projects, through Kurds, to Sunni-Shiia divide.
>few decades ago the Egyptians, Jordanians and Syrians would have jumped at this
Not really. There were the intifadas. Noone did much.

Bernd 10/17/2023 (Tue) 09:39 [Preview] No.51168 del
To be honest no love for Palestinians in the Arabs, if they can't shit on the Jews. They all have their own interests (and greed) and hates and conflicting views.

Bernd 10/18/2023 (Wed) 09:24 [Preview] No.51171 del
I guess it was an accident, but this kinda shit alienates countries that are best lackeys of the US. Perhaps on paper ofc, they have to do the lip service where necessary, but still.
Israel has the sharpest technology, they can pick targets, and execute properly. I could attribute the strike to malice, or perhaps they had intel that Hamas hiding there or having a c'n'c base there. But everything cannot go flawlessly, so these thing will happen, especially at a place so crowded as Gaza.
And many people did not leave, and some who left returned. IDF did airstrikes and bombardments on the south too, so what's the point of leaving if they can get hurt elsewhere?

Bernd 10/19/2023 (Thu) 06:06 [Preview] No.51172 del
That is true.

Bernd 10/20/2023 (Fri) 17:22 [Preview] No.51178 del
(307.28 KB 1110x852 al-mawasi-area.jpg)
IDF designated a humanitarian zone at Al-Mawasi.

Now I'm speculating here a bit, there could be an alternative use of this place besides the destination of humanitarian aid.
In theory they could amass everyone in Gaza there like herrings in a tincan, then let them out one by one checking each and filter Hamas members, they probably have lists about people, maybe not of the smallest fishes, but they could catch some larger who might try to escape with refugees.
But will be there even a ground offensive? Fighting house to house? Poking into bunkers and tunnels? I don't think many of the Jewish soldiers has such as competency. And the ones who have might just melt away in the concrete jungle.

Bernd 10/21/2023 (Sat) 11:32 [Preview] No.51180 del
I feel like they are going to have to take the whole strip and occupy it as well but that will be a mess.
They might also try to push everybody out into Egypt but Egypt won't accept that.

Bernd 10/21/2023 (Sat) 17:14 [Preview] No.51181 del
It's a mystery what their end game could be.
Like some bad marriage, husband beats up wife then wife breaks a plate to cool her anger. But situation isn't solved and drags on forever.
Hamas punches Israel on the schnoz now they pummeling them back... until what? They run out of Hamas fighters? Then they really have to go on the ground door to door.
Or they just go on until they satisfied with the death toll?

Bernd 10/22/2023 (Sun) 09:50 [Preview] No.51186 del
Liveuamap shows some events related to the Gaza conflict beyond the borders of Israel. The Jews doing airstrikes on Syrian airfields at Aleppo and Damascus, this is surely related, however the drones over couple of airfields in Iraq might not have to do anything with it. They think so they do.

Bernd 10/22/2023 (Sun) 10:19 [Preview] No.51187 del
The ongoing offensive takes clay slow but steady since then. But it's just clay, not much more. The battle seems important enough the Finnish mapping group started to note the width of the entrance of the cauldron.
Anyway the going might actually be faster than the Ukrainian offensive was at Orikhiv/Robotyne. I'm hearing from youtubers that the "Storm Z" units, former Wagner mercs are deployed here, and the Wagner at Bakhmut again on the offensive.
The two operations, the first Battle of Bakhmut and this battle at Avdiivka is compared sometimes. The topic comes up that this is another Bakhmut. Could be. I think there is an important difference: "behind" Bakhmut there is Chasiv Yar, another town on an elevation, surrounded by woods and behind a canal. Here it's basically open ground, all the settlements are couple of street villages (not that they cannot be fortified), and the bodies of water situated so the two pincers of the Russian advance can meet at them. For me it seems surrounding Avdiivka could be an easier task than Bakhmut.
I'm really, really curious how the Ukrainian fortification lines are running along the front. Avdiivka is a stronghold and a salient, but are the defensive lines penetrable behind it?
Made some fantasy lines how I imagine it. Is this possible? But I highly suspect the Ukrainian trenches and strongpoints are more in depth, they might have some strong fortifications at Pokrovsk, and even before at the towns, and heights if there's any. I also suspect the Russian defense lines were influenced by the Ukrainian ones. They gathered info, studied it, they fought against it, and they concluded they needed similar. So what can we see, might mirror the Ukrainian in some way.

Bernd 10/22/2023 (Sun) 11:04 [Preview] No.51188 del
I have heard that the Russians have lost over 80 vehicles and that this is some of the bloodiest fighting so far. Not sure about the exact number but it is clear they are losing a lot and putting a lot into this.

Bernd 10/22/2023 (Sun) 11:08 [Preview] No.51189 del
Heard the same thing. But as AFU said, have to crack some tanks to make an omelette.

Bernd 10/26/2023 (Thu) 09:25 [Preview] No.51201 del
The Congress doesn't support more money for Ukraine.
But now that it is packaged along with the help for Israel, Taiwan, and even a stricter southern border control. Who will say no to that? To labeled as anti-Semite? Even the most deviant of the Republicans won't say no to more money for the border. Quite unifying I have to say.

The first article reflects on the money already approved and how it is spent.
For now funding of Ukraine and funding of supplies for Ukraine is secured. At least for upcoming months. They write "years" too, but apparently it would be good to secure it for the 2024 Prez election, which is about a year from now (November 5th).
So the ammo and weapons are gonna trickle.

Bernd 10/26/2023 (Thu) 10:38 [Preview] No.51202 del
Here's a more accurate breakdown of the funding, they have interactive graphs and charts too:

In four spending packages they separated $113 billion for the Ukraine conflict.
This is getting spent on:
- military equipment;
- migration/refugee assistance;
- energy;
- countering disinformation;
- other.

From this 113 billion:
- US Department of Defense got ~61.8 billion dorrars;
- US Agency for International Development (USAID) got ~$36.5 billion;
- US Department of State got ~$10 billion;
- other US govt. agencies got ~$4.7 billion.

They note that not all the money went to Ukraine, some were spent on the US herself, and ofc spent on matierial which then sent to Ukraine.
There are also long burning funds. They separated $450 million for Missile Procurement until 2025 September 30. - and it seems this for the US Army as well; not Ukraine. Ofc they could just pass it to Ukraine I suppose.
They also funneled money directly into Ukraine budget to keep the state of Ukraine functioning, to pay the bureaucracy, pensions, education, healthcare, and the other typical spending of a country.

The article also writes about the anti-corruption measures Ukraine took. Now they are sacrificing some lambs, to appease the Western Idols.

Bernd 10/27/2023 (Fri) 09:45 [Preview] No.51203 del
What I wanted to add, but forgot, is that the ground invasion of Gaza is getting delayed. Some say it might be for the hostages, might be for preparation, might be for weather, might be for waiting civilians to leave (or as many as possible), might be for political pressure... Why not because the US needs time to take care the financing of wars, and if Israel finished prematurely the whole plan goes down the shitter.

Bernd 10/29/2023 (Sun) 19:21 [Preview] No.51207 del
UN voted on a resolution about cease-fire in the Gaza conflict. 120 yes, 45 abstained, 14 noes. Hungary voted no, along with Israel, US, Fiji, Guatemala, Marshall-islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tonga, Austria, Czechia, Croatia.
But why we voted no, instead of an abstain at least? And what's wrong with voting yes, apparently our govt. want a cease fire in Ukraine why not in Israel?
All this won't be replied well I can guess... I can only write what they said: "the resolution does not condemn the terror attack of the Hamas, does not call for the release of the over 200 hostages, and does not strengthen the right for self-defense of the states".
Israel will just ignore the resolution ofc.
I really wonder why only us four from Europe, or the EU.

Bernd 11/01/2023 (Wed) 15:31 [Preview] No.51214 del
Well they began the invasion yesterday and today they have pushed further forwards, it looks like they have nearly reached the sea and cut off Gaza City(though there are probably tunnels that will run under the Israelis and into Gaza city).

It looks like they are pressuring the south too but it's unclear if they will launch an offensive there as well yet or if that's just to divert forces.

Also sorry for the map, if I zoom in once more it's too much so this is the best I can do.

Doesn't Hungary have a large Jewish population? It could be that. Same with Austria.

Bernd 11/08/2023 (Wed) 08:44 [Preview] No.51242 del
Military exercises are held on the Hungary. Biggest since the socialism. Multinational too. Besides our units, USians, Turks, Croats, Italians are participating, about 4500 soldiers all in all. It's called Adaptive Hussars 2023. From our part all the acquired new gadgets are tried. Like the Lynx, Gidrán, and the "new" antiquated Leopard 2A4s.
I think this thing will go on till Nov. 30 or something.

Bernd 11/11/2023 (Sat) 21:12 [Preview] No.51251 del
Repost from >>>/ausneets/ for later read.
I'm aware that the average age is relatively high. Zoomers don't pulling their weight, heh. HistoryLegends made video about this some time ago. Noting it's worldwide trend or something the like.

Bernd 11/13/2023 (Mon) 19:40 [Preview] No.51255 del
The National Security Committee of the Hungarian Parliament declassified a report about the migrant situation along and over our southern border. Now with the Israel-Hamas war our govt. isn't lazy to mention the Muslim migrants on all the possible occasions, and this report helps to accentuate the danger. For us simple mortals no data is verifiable from this, perhaps if foreign intelligence agencies or various EU and private research institutions would publish something about it, that could help. I dunno if any such document exists.
This one sadly wasn't made out of a text based files, but from scanned images of a printed document (which is insane in our day and age), so translation might not be easy for foreigners it's in Hungarian ofc.
In short this document states that various human trafficker gangs emerged who fight each other with a growing arsenal of firearms, and occasionally they even open fire on our border guards with assault rifles. The actions of the Serbian police is ineffective. It names two gangs specifically, the 303 and 40-059 Afghan human trafficker groups (yes, those are their names), and also mentions that the Taliban took over the organization and leadership.
The document also says that one route of the traffickers from Afghanistan is via Tajikistan, for they can get Tajik passport, which allows them to move freely within the Commonwealth of Independent States, and can get to Belgrade with boarding in Moscow easy.
Another route is open for those who come from Türkiye (eg. Kurds), Azerbaijan, or Dagestan, for Serbia grants easier entry from Turkey.
It seems on average the Hungarian border control stops 2500-3000 illegal border crossings per week.
The report also states that human trafficking is a profitable business, a growing market. It costs €1000 without haulage to cross the border. I don't get where the money comes from. Impoverished Syrian refugees or Afghani goat herders? The document does not gives an answer to this.

Bernd 11/14/2023 (Tue) 15:05 [Preview] No.51256 del
The yt channel of the Hungarian Defence Forces publishes short videos about the exercise.

Bernd 11/14/2023 (Tue) 17:01 [Preview] No.51257 del
Heard some stuff about the circus around the grain deal.
So now our govt. says that the EU and member countries such as Hungary, accepted laws and regulations about banning GMOs and various pesticides. On the other hand on the Ukraine these are perfectly legal (they say Ukraine uses latest USian technology). This means three things: 1. cheaper production; 2. larger yield; 3. potential health hazard. So according to our govt. they have not just easier time to compete with local products, but those mean safety issues as well.

This article:
... says Ukrainian grain, oilseeds, and pulses (apparently these are legumes, such as beans, lentils and such) production is steadily growing (and will grow). And according to US department of agriculture the grain does so. Now the war slowed things down I bet.
>Ukraine’s grain, oilseed and pulse production has steadily risen to an estimated 100 million tonnes in 2021-22, up from 9.5 million tonnes 20 years ago.
>Nikolay Gorbachov
>“A group of traders think the wheat crop could be up to 35 million tonnes,” said Gorbachov. “In that case we can export 25 to 27 million tonnes.”
>He is forecasting 37 million tonnes of corn but it could climb as high as 40 million, resulting in a 34- to 35-million-tonne export program.
While these are forecasts, they tell us that most of Ukraine's production goes to export. There is a nice graph in the article.
>A crop of 113 million tonnes would result in 79 million tonnes of exports.
>Gorbachov said there used to be legitimate concerns about Ukraine’s ability to move that much grain to overseas markets but the logistical issues have been addressed.
This is 2021. When the ports were still safe.
>Ukraine has about a dozen ports but Mykolaiv, Chornomorsk, Pivdenniy and Odessa account for 93 percent of total grain exports. New grain export terminals have been built at the ports and there are more to come.
>China accounted for 25 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports last year. The other key markets are the European Union, the Middle East and North Africa.
How much have this changed I wonder.

Bernd 11/14/2023 (Tue) 21:29 [Preview] No.51258 del
>they see me rollin

Bernd 11/15/2023 (Wed) 00:15 [Preview] No.51259 del
>This is 2021. When the ports were still safe.
It can't be too hard to move the grain by rail to a port in Romania or some other country.

Bernd 11/15/2023 (Wed) 19:57 [Preview] No.51260 del
Then it wouldn't be an issue.
Ofc media can create loud stories about non-issues, but it does sounds like something serious. They also haul stuff via Polan and Hungary.

Bernd 11/19/2023 (Sun) 20:22 [Preview] No.51276 del
The Russian offensive at Avdiivka is still ongoing, and gaining ground, especially north of the town.
Avdiivka has two main features, we might say strongholds, the plant in the north, and the commieblock housing project at the center - this one is similar to Bakhmut's last bastion the Citadel.
I heard the HQ of the defenders of Avdiivka was pulled out to Orlivka, I dunno if it's true or not.
Situation must be quite uncomfortable in all the ways possible.

Bernd 11/20/2023 (Mon) 16:48 [Preview] No.51283 del
After Bakhmut, I'm skeptical of any future claims of encirclement. The Ukrainians will funnel supplies through a very thin salient and the Russians will have to attack into the city proper.

Bernd 11/20/2023 (Mon) 19:11 [Preview] No.51284 del
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I keep reaching back into my memories of the war in Ukraine to compare speculation with the actual course of events. Before the war, there was widespread expectation in the West that Ukraine would be rapidly crushed under overwhelming Russian firepower. When this didn't happen, commentators diverged, the official Western line became very derisive of Russian capabilities, although the focus was always on Russian incompetence and not Ukrainian competence.
Others emphasized Russia could still do a lot of damage, very early on there was talk about how Russia had only deployed the first wave. Then, speculation shifted to an encirclement of Ukraine's forces in the Donbas by Russians in the south linking up with those coming from Kharkov. None of this happened, predicted encirclements kept shrinking, but Russian firepower did win in Severodonetsk.
Then came the Ukrainian Kharkov offensive, and expectations of future Russian performance sank further, while much confidence was placed in Ukrainian performance. Pro-Russians seemed nervous about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive, while pro-Ukrainians were triumphalist. Now that the offensive has been foiled, expected Russian performance swings positively.

Bernd 11/20/2023 (Mon) 19:28 [Preview] No.51285 del
It will depend on where is the softest resistance, and if Russians want a cauldron where they can destroy Ukrainian troops and equipment, slowing the rate for Ukraine to prepare another offensive. They might want to close the gap more.
In Bakhmut they were also forced into the town to fight there for Ukrainians used the urban warfare to grind Russian troops down too. There was the undecided question that for which side was Bakhmut more of a trap. I think we can say for the Ukrainians, they wasted more resources, while the less concentration elsewhere allowed Russians to build their defense lines in relative peace, and the Ukrainian offensive fist got to be weaker than it should have. While Russians lost trained professionals there, like paratroopers, most of their losses were from the prison population volunteered in Wagner. And their material loss was even more negligible (lots of ammo and old equipment from warehouses).
In case of Avdiivka perhaps it's more clear that it will be a trap for Ukraine (again).

Bernd 11/20/2023 (Mon) 19:58 [Preview] No.51286 del
The Russian army was hyped up for two reasons:
1. Russia looking stronger than in reality is a deterrent;
2. Western military has to live from something so they magnify opposing threat.
Besides this we were still under the spell of the Red Army of WWII despite extraordinary circumstances allowed them to occupy half of Europe.
Btw it's good to keep in mind that Russia isn't the Soviet Union or the Czarist Empire, has both's geopolitical heritage but it is a different entity with differing possibilities - forced by internal characteristics and external circumstances - and goals.

I think you summed it up well the changing expectations and commentary of the main narrations that were common to hear or repeated.
There was a hype of Ukrainian capabilities and possibilities they could do after the Russians retreated from the north, and then after the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives. Now it's gone due to the failed Spring/Summer Offensive, and only one thing left, the real losses of Ukraine we kept in dark about. At the moment people believe Ukraine can still hold, perhaps knowing the real numbers would change that - if the number is high, maybe it is maybe it isn't.
Yes, expectation about Russian performance grew, but they also has the initiative along the front, and they take land more rapidly than how Ukraine did. If that matters any. For sure Russia now has a system created for a prolonged conflict, solid defense lines, build up areas, rotation system, supply lines. For reaching war goals? Not even sure what are those.

Bernd 11/21/2023 (Tue) 15:43 [Preview] No.51292 del
Admittedly, I thought Ukraine would collapse on the first day too. But not because of Russian strength but rather I thought the Ukrainians would not fight back, that they would be too disorganised and demoralised to want to fight such a war.

But I think Russia has been over estimated for a long time, Russia is Russia, it's always had to rely on numbers but it doesn't actually have the numbers in this war, Ukraine does, Russia just has more equipment. It's essentially a war between two Soviet armies, only one has more men and the other has more tanks.
So it kind of makes sense when you look at it that way.

The Ukrainians have the infantry to hold any part of the front, but they don't have enough material to launch major offensives given how costly they are in terms of material. The Russians have the tanks but they don't have enough men for such a large front, so they can go on the offensive they just have to be specific about it and they use Mercs and Chechens to do the bloodiest fighting.

Bernd 11/21/2023 (Tue) 21:14 [Preview] No.51293 del
>the Ukrainians would not fight back,
I read/heard Moscow counted on that. They thought it will be another Crimea where the AFU observed the events idly. They bought officials and officers to make sure they won't resist, at least won't resist where it matters (in the north) - it would have been like a coup. Little they knew the US bought the key players already, for a higher price.

>but it doesn't actually have the numbers in this war
Indeed. From the beginning their numbers is inflated by Ukraine and Western media. And comparisons were sometimes done with the whole Russian army, not the portion usable in the war.

Bernd 11/23/2023 (Thu) 08:10 [Preview] No.51307 del
4 days ago in Hungarian govt media:
>Hamas says the fighting is going to be paused and they'll release some hostages in a deal
>Tel-Aviv warned it's early to speak about the deal happening

3 days ago in Hungarian govt media:
>Hamas says the fighting is going to be paused and they'll release some hostages in a deal
>Washington warned it's early to speak about the deal happening

Yesterday in Hungarian govt media:
>The Hamas releasing 50 hostages in a pause of fighting bartered in a deal

Bernd 11/24/2023 (Fri) 19:27 [Preview] No.51311 del
Riots in Ireland, Dublin.
A bloke stabbed few people (including children) near a school. The masses suspect a migrant, officials say nothing about it, besides "no terrorist connection". If he was Irish, they would already scream it into the world, so good guess he's a migrant. Unless they want these riots to happen.
>The cars destroyed, the trams and buses damaged
As Defense Politics Asia said in a similar situation: bad news for rioters for they have to go home on foot now.
Prime Minister Multicultural Background said:
>the rioters “criminals” who are “filled with hate”.
We'll see.

Bernd 12/01/2023 (Fri) 08:11 [Preview] No.51337 del
In retrospect I believe Ukraine blew up the Kakhovka dam in order to draw troops from the Zaporozhia front with the threat of a possible river crossing over the reservoir, in the wake of the summer offensive (dam was blew up on the 6th, the offensive started around the 5th, although media started talking about it around the 10th).

Bernd 12/02/2023 (Sat) 16:27 [Preview] No.51339 del
Russia is increasing their army by another 170,000 men, to bring it up to 1,320,000


This will be made up of recruits not conscripts. So they will probably end up in Ukraine.

Bernd 12/02/2023 (Sat) 18:48 [Preview] No.51340 del
I concur, they'll be part of the rotation strategy. They might be ready by next summer or spring. I'm not familiar how quick the bureaucracy works in this specific case (it is slow, but where is will they can make it snappy). Perhaps they'll draft gradually so some might by ready by spring, then next batch by summer, then the next by autumn etc.

Bernd 12/04/2023 (Mon) 08:01 [Preview] No.51342 del
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Israel is attacking the southern part of Gaza strip now.
From just this piece of info I'm guessing the situation stuck in Gaza city, and the Israeli leadership evaluated that too much help arrives from the south via tunnels, and now they wish to seal up those.
I missed out on following in the last couple of days, they had their prisoner exchange and ceasefire I know.

Meanwhile upon the Ukraine I saw some wild changes on liveuamap. Deep State shows more moderate changes.
Also apparently Marinka was taken by Russia. They were fighting there since the start of the war. I don't think it's a big change, it's just the front line moved a bit. Another settlement flattened changed hands.

Bernd 12/05/2023 (Tue) 08:45 [Preview] No.51348 del
Have couple of snippets related to Ukraine. So the question of elections are coming up over and over, here's what's going on essentially:
tl;dr elections are prohibited, can they, will they, how, when, why, etc.
This is how the Hungarian state/Fidesz media presents it (often times in one article or programme or interview):
>Ukraine is a dictatorial shithole, elections are banned, Zelensky a tyrant, entrenched in his position impossible to remove
Then they present "opposition" voices (basically they drop couple of names, like Klitschko, whom can be a possible candidate for presidency), then they cry:
>Zelensky's position is precarious, he can fall every day

The other snippet. This article:
... says Rheinmetall makes Lynxes for Ukraine, and the new factory built on the Hungary (we mentioned this way earlier, perhaps in the tank thread, it was opened in August) also produces for them!
The article talks about specifically the first 10 Lynxes.
Additional information:
- Rheimnetall is the largest partner of Ukraine from the military industry
- it got €900 million orders, this risen to €2,5 billion
- the maintenance will be done in Ukraine by Ukrainian mechanics trained in Germany
- no new factories will be built in Ukraine, but they'll rent and refurbish old ones, which proved fairly well protected durint he war.

Bernd 12/05/2023 (Tue) 16:13 [Preview] No.51351 del
So they are going through with it, well they aren't building Panther tanks like they said they would but still.
It will be interesting to see them in combat, though I have a feeling it will be sad as well.

Bernd 12/05/2023 (Tue) 18:34 [Preview] No.51353 del
If it offers higher survivability than what they use currently it probably worth it. But they would need them in numbers that matter. Couple of good equipment means nothing.

Bernd 12/11/2023 (Mon) 18:22 [Preview] No.51370 del
Ukraine formed the first tank battalion with their 31 Abrams they got.

Bernd 12/14/2023 (Thu) 09:31 [Preview] No.51388 del
Today and tomorrow EU holds a meeting (an European Council summit) to discuss Ukraine's hastened entry into the EU and further support of the war effort.
Apparently there are some who wants Ukraine to step into the EU early on.
Meanwhile I heard a curious number. Apparently Ukraine halted privatization as the war begin but then they restarted it with unusual vigor later. I heard up to date they sold 3700 state owned companies, only 100 remains.
I'm trying to dig up some numbers. I don't expect to find anything fresh.
For now here is this from 2022 October:
It offers important information.
They estimate state-owned enterprises to 3300, and also the state holds "one million real estate objects".
First they created a new legal basis of a quicker process: "On 19 August 2022, the new Law No. 2468-IX on privatization" which simplified the whole thing. Then they appointed a new stooge to
execute a will in the person of Rustem Umerov, who became the Chairman of the State Property Fund of Ukraine. He declared what was expected from him, they are there to "make privatization as easy as possible for foreign investors". I bet they did not have Russians in mind but "investors" from the US and EU. Indeed with the various sanctions it is harder for Russians to buy stuff abroad, especially in Europe.
After the foundation was laid they started to sell everything starting from 2022 September 19, when they held the first auction. They don't say how many properties and enterprises were sold, but note that in October they gave another 800 state-owned enterprises to the State Property Fund to sell.
>The bidding usually starts from the asset book value, which is usually much lower than the actual market one. It gives an investor an excellent opportunity to buy good assets cheaply.
And considering prices shouldn't be too high, for the war it probably plummeted, all these assets could be bought cheap as fuck. The State Property Fund has a website which lists all the available lots, with photos, info in English, price and whatnot. I think this is the site:
Quick, Bernd, open the purses not much left!

Where money flows quick, embezzlement appears even quicker. Officials in State Property Fund started to pocket hefty sums themselves. And EU expects Ukraine to take anti-corruption steps, these folks are getting investigated.

Bernd 12/15/2023 (Fri) 19:38 [Preview] No.51392 del
So yesterday/today in the EU summit the leaders of the member states voted on two questions:
- enlargement of the EU
- funds for Ukraine
Regarding to the enlargement they evaluated Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, what status to give them, and if they start membership talks. Georgia got the "candidate" status, with Moldova and Ukraine the talks can start, Bosnia still have to complete the requirements.
As for the funds, it was about a long term financial package, I think the sum would be €50 billion. Orbán vetoed this, and there will be another round in 2024 January/February about the very same thing - so I got the feeling it was just a vote about: "if we should start considering it at the moment", and not a "give it or not" decision.

Bernd 12/15/2023 (Fri) 19:39 [Preview] No.51393 del
Now back to the membership vote, specifically Ukraine and Orbán, because the media is the loudest about this. And frankly this thing kinda smells funny, and the media (Politico gives the credit to that dunce Scholz, lol) does not offer clear view entirely. The gist is that after hours of debate Orbán left so the rest can vote yes.
I tried to get videos of the "doorstep" interview of Orbán, I couldn't find the whole thing. So there is one piece about Georgia, and another about Ukraine membership talks and the funds. He also published a short video on his Facebook channel, finally it was uploaded to yt, so I grabbed it.
In the short video Orbán gave an explanation, and I listened the interview with him on radio this morning, where he essentially repeated it while added some more details about the circumstances. Translation of the video:
We were wrestling with each other for almost 8 hours here in Brussels, in the summit of premiers. We have a great debate about Ukraine's membership in the EU. The standpoint of Hungary is clear, Ukraine is not prepared to start the membership talks. It is fully pointless, irrational, and incorrect decision in these circumstances to start the talks with Ukraine, and Hungary does not revises her standpoint. However 26 other countries insisted to make this decision, so Hungary concluded, that if 26 of them pick this choice, they can go on their way. Hungary does not wish to take part in this wrong decision, so Hungary stayed away from it today. Negotiations continue with the alteration of the budget.
So what the "other side" says it is easily accessible to foreigners, for example here's two articles on Politico:
The first article handily gives a link to an official EU website about how the Unanimous vote and the abstention works:
It's not entirely clear however that "abstention" means they have to declare they are abstaining or it can happen in their absence (and that is automatically means abstention). In the latter case: why bother to invite Orbán at all, they can just say stay away we're voting without him. Imagine they're holding council meetings in secret, so the Orbán won't find out. Kek.

Bernd 12/15/2023 (Fri) 19:41 [Preview] No.51394 del
Anyway. Western leftlib media celebrates now, Orbán and govt./Fidesz media are in damage control, turned on the copium pipeline.
Now what Orbán added in the morning interview (at least what I found interesting) is this. Two things made him not using veto.
1. All 26 of them wanted this to happen. All 26 of them wanted to give a gesture which Ukrainians can hang onto (he really said that).
2. At the end of the membership talks the legislatures of the member states have to vote if they want to allow the candidate in or not. End up until then, there are ~75 occasion, where any member country can step on the breaks when they feel things are go against their interests.
Basically it is similar what I wrote here: >>51377

However. I am still not sure if they shorten the process. This thing could take years - remember Turkey got candidate status in 1999 and the talks started in 2005, and now it seems they'll never join -, but perhaps they want to push Ukraine in as quick as possible.
There's an article here:
Which says:
>Accomplishing these short-term tasks is just a fraction of the sweeping policy changes the commission recommended Ukraine make across a variety of sectors, from public administration to food safety, by the end of 2024.
Do they want to finish the whole thing by this time next year? It sounds ludicrous.

Bernd 12/15/2023 (Fri) 19:42 [Preview] No.51395 del
I'm really wondering tho if they voted on all the countries as one package. I mean they did not vote on the status of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia separately, but they put together a list and with one vote they could accept all, or veto all. So vetoing Ukraine would have vetoed progression of Bosnia, Georgia, and Moldova too. Just to corner Orbán. Who would want to be the one who tackled the other countries?
Could be but why Orbán not says so then. So I'm probably wrong.

All in all in the morning it felt like the govt./Fidesz media talking heads did not understood what happened, and weren't sure how to narrate the events. Previously they pumped so much this "stop EU to initiate the process" and "Ukraine is inadequate to join" mantra, that it seemed with the veto not happening they suddenly run out of things to say. It also seemed that there is an air of disappointment, which they tried incompetently counter.
I'm sure they'll get over it soon and restart the engine. They have two elections to win next year (the municipal and the EU), so they have to step on the pedal.

Bernd 12/16/2023 (Sat) 20:52 [Preview] No.51396 del
About the Summer Offensive of AFU by Colonel Reisner of the Austrian army:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=EWjMr3RZ8Ss [Embed]
It delivers good info and terms which describe the situation well (eg. treeline hopping or transparent battlefield).
I think major problem for Ukraine that they and their Western supporters couldn't prepare the mechanized brigades, which foreshadows that they most likely will be unable to do so in the future either.
Another weight which holds back Ukraine is the NATO brain trying to come up with plans based on non-existent conditions. They have a doctrine which assumes that their side has all the advantages, from numbers, through quality of equipment, to air superiority, and they try to force Ukraine to act as if these conditions were met. At NATO central they have to start assuming that their side is the weaker, and then when they accepted that premise and accepted the limited capabilities, only then they will be able to come up with something that is actually executable.

Bernd 12/16/2023 (Sat) 21:25 [Preview] No.51397 del
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Oh I made another screenshot, it's from Washington Post.
This is insane:
>The Pentagon wanted the assault to behin in mid-April
In mid-April Ukrainians barely got their first Leopard 2s! And then in the spring the ground is a sea of mud. Playing Colin McRae Rally with heavy equipment is a stupid idea.
Also they wanted 1 point of attack. That would have resulted in Russians concentrating to that one point. Again NATO is dumb. The only reason Ukrainians had any results because the Ukrainians (Zaluzhny) kept some grasp on reality.

Bernd 12/17/2023 (Sun) 05:56 [Preview] No.51398 del
It's been a while but it's another good video.

I don't know. I agree that attacking earlier through the mud may have been an issue but I think that concentrating forces for an attack on one axis would have been the better course of action.
The Russians still had limited forces so I don't know how much they would be able to concentrate lest they risk another Kharkiv.
And additionally, Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines of communication, so they can redeploy faster than Russia can.

I think the issue would have been that they would risk losing ground around Bahkmut if they didn't have those forces there but that would have been a worthwhile trade-off.

Bernd 12/17/2023 (Sun) 09:06 [Preview] No.51399 del
Ukraine blacklisted Raiffeisen Bank, just the same as they did with Hungarian OTP. Now Austria wants the blacklist gone in order for them to accept the next sanction package against Russia.
Kiev calls this blackmail.

In theory concentrating all the power at one point instead of spreading it is a good idea, and I agree. In this case I don't believe would have been a good idea.
Being in the center and easier regrouping capabilities is overrated in this situation. Distances aren't that big, and Ukraine can't block the flow of Russian troops from one front to another (their surprise strikes - with their artillery and rockets - are effective basically only once).
And ofc, no surprises where the attack will commence, can't hide that much equipment and troops. And then those need to be concentrated somewhere, housed, and shielded. There might not be enough available shelters (be them simple houses, or bunkers), Velike Novosilka and Orikhiv are not large settlements.

Bernd 12/17/2023 (Sun) 13:11 [Preview] No.51400 del
I think one parallel could be the Invasion of France in 1940 by Germany. They attacked on all fronts, along the whole border at Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France, but the main thrust which served to reach the sea and slice the Allied armies in two was started out at Luxembourg. They did not attack just through the Ardennes while sit in cover on the rest of the front, not even along the Maginot line.

Back to the date of mid-April. The Battle of Bakhmut was still raging on and over a month more. Ukraine needed all the manpower - which wasn't spent on preparing the brigades of their summer campaign (9+3) - to throw them against the Wagner. I think it was major distraction from the plans of starting the offensive in the spring.

Bernd 12/18/2023 (Mon) 08:00 [Preview] No.51403 del
The responsible thing.
As Zaluzhny stopped the doomed armoured column attacks after less than a week, because they realized they just get their vehicle park wrecked... He/they should have stopped similarly the small unit operations after the first couple of results, which proved that they have to pay way too high price for way little gains. Gains with no operational, strategical, and not even tactical importance.
They should have conserve life and equipment.
That is for sure. And beyond perhaps sit down to the negotiating table (with a sizeable fighting force behind their backs).
Ofc it's easy to be wise after the fact, but still. They had data.

Bernd 12/18/2023 (Mon) 21:03 [Preview] No.51405 del
Another one from Reisner. It's a presentation he gave in the 27th Austrian Institute for European & Security Policy Forum in Vienna, in mid November.
This one adds some info about the drones, and their importance. And the importance of countering them, especially with electro-magnetic capabilities - and about other topics.
Cool he lists how many times the West had to rearm Ukraine because they were "attrited".
https://youtube.com/watch?v=P_e_I-TgtvQ [Embed]

Bernd 12/18/2023 (Mon) 21:21 [Preview] No.51406 del
Now that I listened the full video.
He claims Ukrainians want 5 new brigades to be prepared for a new offensive. Which means the West have to - again - rearm them. They need at least:
- 150 tanks
- 300 Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- 2-300 artillery pieces.
In my opinion if they failed with 12, 5 will be as useful as enema to a dead person.
Not to mention where they'll get 150 new tanks?! And then if they actually want an impactful force which should be at least double amount (10), or more likely triple (15) or even more... where would such amount of equipment come from?! And the manpower?

Very interesting note towards at the end of the video. The ongoing crisis is not with Russia now, but between the global north with the global south. And Europe is fucked.

And General Milley retired!? In September apparently.

Bernd 12/22/2023 (Fri) 10:20 [Preview] No.51416 del
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Now this is coming from the Kremlin (literally can be found on en.kremlin.ru, I won't link it, search "shoigu expanded meeting of defence ministry board"), but this is what they say about Ukrainian losses:
During the summer campaign (since June 4th) Ukraine lost:
- 159,000 killed and wounded
- 121 aircraft
- 23 helicopters
- 766 tanks (including 37 Leopards I guess they were talking about Leo 2s)
- 2348 various armored vehicles (including 50 Bradleys)
Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine lost:
- 383,000 killed and wounded
- 14000 armored vehicles (including tanks)
- 553 aircrafts
- 259 helicopters
- 7500 artillery pieces
>Ukraine has had nine mobilisation waves, with the tenth wave currently underway where even individuals only partially fit for service are being called up.
Foreign volunteers/mercenaries:
- 5800 were "neutralized" (including 1427 Polish, 466 American, 344 British)
Now this transcript is fairly long and did not read, contains some boasting, similarly not sure the truth behind it, perhaps numbers are correct on paper, but due to inefficiency things can differ (like how many stuff they produce and how many reaches the troops in the trenches).
As for the Ukrainian losses:
The human loss can include MIA and POWs too, and one person can get wounded several times, and registered as missing, and got captured and exchanged back, and then die at the end of all this, therefore 1 person can cover a number of losses, he can be registered several times. This is true for both sides ofc. I assume the actual number is lower (not counting they could overestimate it or inflate it on purpose).
This is somewhat true to equipment as well. Being destroyed and getting hit is two different thing. Some can be recovered, repaired, and shot again. And again.

Since Ukraine typically does not present her own numbers, these ones above might be repeated in the media more often. I believe the 37 Leos are the confirmed ones visually, so that is pretty much true.

Bernd 12/22/2023 (Fri) 14:20 [Preview] No.51418 del
Moving this here. Although looks spammy.

Besides this EU citizens have can help Ukrainians via EU institutions:
I think it's more about supporting the refugees. I recall from last year that there was a EU bank account which accepted donations and sent to Ukraine. I couldn't find that specific one.

Bernd 12/22/2023 (Fri) 14:21 [Preview] No.51419 del
To be honest I did not check that gov.ua link.

Bernd 12/22/2023 (Fri) 16:34 [Preview] No.51420 del

According to Oryx as of the time I am writing this, Ukraine has lost

>1 Leopard 1A5
>13 Leopard 2A4
>11 Leopard 2A6
>3 Stridsvagn 122

But also if we include Engineering equipment on Leopard Chassis.

>3 Leopard 2R mine-clearing tank
(Leopard 2 chassis)
>1 Wisent 1 mine-clearing tank
(Leopard 1 chassis)
>1 Bergepanzer 2 armoured recovery vehicle
(leopard 1 chassis)
>2 Bergepanzer 3 armoured recovery vehicle
(Leopard 2 chassis)

So, if you were generous that would add up to 35 'Leopards'.

And also regarding Bradleys.
>61 M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA

So those figures are reasonably accurate, the rest of what they claim is different from what is on Oryx though.
Also yes, some of these are just damaged or even abandoned, so could be repaired or recovered.

Bernd 12/22/2023 (Fri) 18:15 [Preview] No.51421 del
Could be Oryx missed a couple. Could be Russians mistook some AMX-s.
>So those figures are reasonably accurate
So it seems.

Bernd 12/25/2023 (Mon) 18:05 [Preview] No.51428 del
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Ukrainian media started to write about a possible negotiations between Orbán and Zelensky. They present it as an unsure thing. From the previous statement of Orbán, it's a sure thing.

Bernd 12/27/2023 (Wed) 20:26 [Preview] No.51435 del
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Did some distance measurement, because of why not.
Comparing the length of WWI Western Front with the Ukrainian one. Roughly.
WWI because the current situation is the most comparable from the past examples perhaps, or at least its fashionable to compare to that.

Which made me think how many scream "human wave tactics" when they see a footage of two dozen people advancing through a field in two-three files. Which is hilarious.
Our imagination is hugely influenced by what we can see in films. I don't think any can grab the full scale even on a small scale, but I heard the most realistic combat scenes are from movies made back in the '20s and '30s when WWI veterans were available to work as extras in the scenes. For example:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=fHuNQER_8rI [Embed]

Bernd 12/28/2023 (Thu) 16:17 [Preview] No.51444 del
Apparently Ukraine can't mobilize dudes under 27 (did we know about this?). New law they are drafting would lower it to 25. The article says specifically: "for combat duty", I dunno if this has any significance.
I'm aware that younger blokes fighting on the fronts since day one. Since 2014 basically.

I tried to look up the Hungarian law about it, I found 2 that could regulate the age brackets, but could not find them in the laws. The rest of the laws about to homeland defence, military - judging by the titles - don't seem to be related to that particular topic. Perhaps I missed something.

Bernd 01/07/2024 (Sun) 21:06 [Preview] No.51494 del
Weeb Union talks about a possible Russian offensive to capture Kharkov.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=kKZ56eGTRsY [Embed]
No. Just no. I don't think any major offensive is planned. Even the starting point, throwing those huge numbers around, X hundred thousand soldiers are here and there. Even if they really have like 400K, they are rotated every 3-6 months, and never more than 100-150 troops are sitting along the whole front and the hinterland of the occupied regions. Way, way less are actually participating in the offensive maneuvers. They don't have 200K free troops just waiting to launch some great assaults, encirclements.
Perhaps he just tries to make up some interesting scenarios to keep his viewers watching.

Bernd 01/09/2024 (Tue) 11:37 [Preview] No.51501 del
I think they would have to take Kupyanks again first(which they are trying to do), but yes, the numbers are also misleading.

Bernd 01/09/2024 (Tue) 12:41 [Preview] No.51502 del
Most definitely. They have to take lot of other things first until they can cut off Kharkov.
I think they don't want to launch such a mobile assault. They become wary after the losses they suffered at the beginning of the war. How the columns were trapped. They can't hide such a large force either. NATO intelligence informs Ukraine. Satellites see everything.
I also think Kharkov is fortified and ways leading around too. Perhaps what the Ukrainians are lacking is the troops to man the trenches, bunker, and forts.

Bernd 01/11/2024 (Thu) 08:44 [Preview] No.51505 del
It seems IDF is "scaling down" the operation in Gaza.
The Telegraph reports similar.
Deutsche Welle headlines are also about tuning it down, mostly giving voice to opinions from outside Israel.
Netanyahu said Israel don't want to take away from Gaza, they don't displace Palestinians (he has to say this to avoid charges of genocide, South Africa is making a case against Israel), I made a screenshot of a different quote from him, see pic #2
I'm hearing Putin now:
Weeb Union says this means they withdraw from Northern Gaza:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=EF9T-m8nP0E [Embed]
This also reminds me of the Ukrainian situation when Russia withdrew their forces from the north, and Putin said they achieved their goals and destroyed the Ukrainian military (demilitarized and denazified). And see where this got them. Still fighting a war.
And this will leave Israel at the same place. They claim they decimated Hamas, but the heads will regrew soon, and they'll back at step 1, a simmering conflict lasting forever.

Bernd 01/12/2024 (Fri) 13:24 [Preview] No.51508 del
Defense Politics Asia might be gone soon-ish. Ukraine war become so boring less and less people watches him. Probably same with other Ukraine war report channels. But in case of his, I'll miss it, he does good reports generally. (Weeb Union actually feels pro-Russian, and not because objective reporting "favors" Russians. HistoryLegends videos are well edited and he has interesting insights, but I don't like the guy, he seems so dishonest. Is he French?)

Bernd 01/12/2024 (Fri) 15:27 [Preview] No.51509 del
I didn't mind him either, he's quite light hearted. I never watched Weeb Union as I dislike the term weeb, it's disingenuous and comes across as fake, ironic and memey.
I never watched History Legends War reports but I watched some other stuff he made such as a video he made about Historical inaccuracies in some game, even though I agreed with him I still don't like him as I don't like his style, I did not find it dishonest but I felt it was too dramatic and aggressive. I don't know where he comes from but I don't think he is French, I thought he sounded Czech or something but I could be(and probably am) wrong.

Bernd 01/15/2024 (Mon) 22:19 [Preview] No.51522 del
Countering drones is the new question, and one of the key ones, not just in this war, but our day and age in any war. Tiny FPV drones with a small explosive charge enough to take out a person are cheap. Even 3rd guerrillas and terrorists can afford them.
In the Russo-Ukrainian war so many are used, and so many people are targeted, that just by the number, they'll come up with various techniques to counter them - and even the attacker side will know about them right away (and they can pass on the experiences to own troops, who could test them).
Electronic interference works, or lucky shots from shotguns, but it's interesting what this guy does in the video. He fires at the drone, and when it dives onto him, he ducks to the ground. For this maneuver, first one have to notice the drone, and keep an absolute level head. He looks quite calm, and walks away like nothing happened.

I'm thinking perhaps some kind of a net gun also could be used.

Bernd 01/15/2024 (Mon) 22:21 [Preview] No.51523 del
*Even 3rd world guerrillas and terrorists

Bernd 01/17/2024 (Wed) 21:29 [Preview] No.51524 del
Besides that idea of an offensive against Kharkhov, I hear people expecting an offensive in Zaporozhia by the Russians. Starting any day now.
I don't believe these. I think Russians will be fine making Avdiivka another meatgrinder where they tie down and erode away Ukrainian manpower, ammo, and equipment, reducing their ability to put together another offensive force.
I also think they'll succeed in this, to the extent that they'll prevent the Ukrainian offensive entirely.
And on the longer run a third (after Bakhmut and Avdiivka) similar battle will be fought. Perhaps at Chasiv Yar or Siversk. After that Ukrainian manpower will be so drained that further resistance will be untenable and the losses will reach Western mainstream media reducing the support for further support.
Then Ukraine has to cut losses and sit down to the negotiating table. First they might replace Zelensky to someone who doesn't represent the "fighting till we take everything back" stance.

My problem with this scenario I presented is, that:
- Russia have to push for a solution that will prevent another war in Ukraine once and for all, or else she has to start another one in the near future (in a decade or two), and they started the war because the diplomatic solutions, the guarantees, the Minks agreements were like toilet paper in the first place. I think Realpolitik demands from them to securely close down things on this front.
- Europe has to push for a solution that'll prevent war in Ukraine once and for all.
Their solutions is very likely not what the other has in mind.
I think Russia wants a disarmed Ukraine which has similar status as Belarus. Where they can come and go, but westerners cannot. They could call it a DMZ. But EU wants Ukraine in the EU.
And then comes the US, who would like to see Ukraine in NATO (also in the EU would be suitable for her), but the US does not care enough and would settle with something that doesn't solve the issue, and will guarantee another war there.

Dutch bernd Bernd 01/18/2024 (Thu) 00:13 [Preview] No.51525 del
The war looks kinda like a stalemate on both parts. Nobody's going out of it "winning" per se

Bernd 01/20/2024 (Sat) 16:22 [Preview] No.51553 del
Historylegends about Brazilian favela war:
He says: he traveled abroad, he knows a bit of Portuguese. So he isn't Brazilian or Portuguese. He knows French well (better than Portuguese), he might be French. Although when he says French words in his videos, he doesn't sound to natural (compared to like news anchors in French news). In this video he also implies he was taught by an Indian teacher at school. Or more than one. He isn't Bri'ish, or Scot, or Irish. From his knowledge of Romance languages I'd assume he is from one of those countries. But Indians aren't really prominent in any of them. He knows a bit of German too. I dunno. Is he Turkish???

Bernd 01/22/2024 (Mon) 17:53 [Preview] No.51557 del
(894.37 KB 1103x765 2024-01-22-krynky.png)
Krinki always comes up in all videos of youtubers all the time.
I assume for the AFU it serves as a threat that they'll cross the Dniepr, engaging and tying down some amount of Russian forces directly, and some reserves behind, which cannot be moved elsewhere just incase.
I don't see it's better than that.
But what does it cost them?
Because for the Russians it's an opportunity to kill Ukrainian marines, and with allowing them a foothold they are baiting them to move more troops there. And if those troops are dying they don't do other operations elsewhere.
I don't think it costs much for the Russians in life to keep Ukrainans in bay.
And now giving up Krinki would look bad for the AFU. So they stuck with it. Especially now that the question of the €50 billion is on the table.

Now that I mention that.
Orbán said no for the 50 bil in December, and was told there will be another round in February.
Ofc, Orbán will veto that one.
So again it was pulled out from the drawer that Hungary is actually very bad, corruption, and minorities, no democracy. Because taking measures against a member country can only be done on the basis that they are violating fundamental EU values. They can't take away the veto because a country does not vote on something.
But taking away the veto need unanimous vote, and for now it seems Slovakia will veto that. At least from what Fico says.
It was raised that unanimous decisions should be abolished entirely, and just go with majority, simple or 2/3 in more serious cases. But if we look at the EU, it is a supra-national (economic) organization with sovereign states as members, who all give up parts of their sovereignty to make this organization work. Voting by majority would mean that the majority can violate the sovereignty of the rest of the states, and force them to things they don't want to agree on. Unanimity keeps equality.

Bernd 01/23/2024 (Tue) 13:50 [Preview] No.51559 del
He speaks nothing like us or Balkan, probably some central euro migrant in Canada.

Bernd 01/23/2024 (Tue) 20:31 [Preview] No.51560 del
Thanks. One more country crossed out then.
Could be migrant in Canada. One way of picking up French. And could explain the Indian connection. But migrant from where?
He isn't Hungarian, and I do not think he is a Slav either. And I highly question his German/Austrian background too.
He looks kinda Italian, perhaps from the north somewhere. I'm sure he speaks some Italian in one of his videos but can't remember in which one.
He might not have language talent that much, but makes the effort trying to pronounce the words (names, places, titles, expressions) when he records the videos.
Huh, maybe he's a Jew.

Bernd 01/30/2024 (Tue) 07:25 [Preview] No.51588 del
Szjjártó, Hungarian foreign minister, met with Andrey Borisovich Yermak, head of the office of president of Ukraine, and Dmitro Kuleba Ukrainian foreing minister at Ungvár. I'm not sure if our fm. crossed the border from Hungary or Northern Hungary. The Hungarian embassy to Ukraine got a threat previously that they'll bomb Szijjártó when he comes to Ukriane - it was written on behalf of Ukrainian people. I think when politicians and diplomats visit they do it the most securely and threats are done all the time, so this is for the show.
To be honest this meeting is for the show too. It's a foreplay for the Orbán-Zelensky meeting. Probably all they did was agreed on what the two dummkopf will talk about. But noone would care if the planned get together wasn't put in the news for some reason every week at least once.
The meeting started with a visit to cemetery to the graves of the fallen soldiers of this war. Then they sit down to a table and talked. Szijjártó said they gave an 11 point list to the Ukraine party. Most of the talks was about the situation of Hungarian minority. Hungarian govt. wants the rights for them they enjoyed pre-2015 times - Ukraine cares about minority rights, EU itself demands them, and Ukraine takes it seriously. Other topic included stuff like border-crossings, or a bridge over the Tisza.
Then they gave a press conference. Kuleba said that list have to be discussed by the governments of both countries, after the foreign ministries digested it for them.
Video is in Hungarian and Ukrainian, but has couple slices of good footage (Yermak talks a lot about the war otherwise):
https://youtube.com/watch?v=LawLSHdEYxM [Embed]
I tried to get the list, but it seems it isn't published. Disappointing.

Article in Hungarian and Ukrainian:

Bernd 01/30/2024 (Tue) 18:31 [Preview] No.51589 del
This looks like something. It is more than this: >>50724 ever was.
It seems AFU threw some mechanized unit to stop them (aka counterattack), but for now Russians are on the go. Maybe by tomorrow they'll stop, maybe not.

Bernd 02/01/2024 (Thu) 12:09 [Preview] No.51592 del
(286.91 KB 1108x623 the-gang.jpg)
Orbán did not veto the 3 year €50 billion for Ukraine package. Despite all the loud hurr durr Hungarians could hear from the Fidesz/govt. media, and despite all the screeching of leftlib Western papers and politicians, who created big circus with the demands to initiate Article 7 (and denying voting rights) against Hungary.
Reports about this event (the green lighting of the package) are very concise. I think they are working from Tweets... the bastardization of journalism continues.
Hungarian reports similarly short.
For now no word about why Orbán did not veto. I guess they need time to come up with a good a shitty one, not even reasonable, but they'll repeat it until everyone here believes it lie. So after our govt. told us again and again that they look at our best interest, what deal they could barter in Brussels? I'm so excited to get the answer! I'm not.

Charles Michel Moar liek Charlotte Michelle amirite. What an ugly broad. has an interesting line in his twat:
>EU is taking leadership & responsibility in support for Ukraine; we know what is…
>EU is taking leadership [in] support for Ukraine
Does this confirm that the US cannot be relied on for sure now?
Anyway this money will end up in USian pockets eventually, Ukraine is just a bus stop.

Bernd 02/01/2024 (Thu) 12:24 [Preview] No.51593 del
The moral of the story: >>51592
Orbán not vetoing Ukraine's EU membeship, and not vetoing the €50 billion clearly illustrates that all this drama is for show, and when it comes to it, all things are already decided and a done deal.
Orbán isn't anti-EU, he just doesn't like when the tap of the EU gibsmedats are closed because he can't funnel that dough into the pockets of his backers, and whom are increasingly loud to get their slice of cake.
I also have to point out that anti-centralization Orbán is good for US, because preventing EU becoming a super-state (by centralizing, dissolving member states and creating a new federal republic) means one less competitor in the race for global hegemony. So US bitching about Orbán is also for the show. Controlled opposition and such.
Okay this is more of a politics, than Syrian war topic.

Bernd 02/01/2024 (Thu) 16:42 [Preview] No.51595 del
EU doesn't has what it takes to be a superstate as Russia ruined her chance to be a sponsor for it and emerge as 3rd polar. Not to mention non-hegemonic, inclusivist approach is real power of EU, not playing into your strength sounds dull in my opinion.

Bernd 02/01/2024 (Thu) 17:11 [Preview] No.51596 del
Orbán says "we got an acceptable offer".
He got guarantee that the money for Hungary won't end up in Ukraine, and that the dough will be renegotiated next year, and voting again at the end of the second.
The reality however is different.

EU isn't a global power because EU is an international economic organization (bit similarly to BRICS, except more demanding, has to give up part all the parts that matter of sovereignty).
US enjoyed unipolar hegemony from the dissolution of the Soviet Union for about two decades perhaps (there is no clearly defined end date). Then China emerged and Russia get their shit together, and now we are in a multipolar world with USA on top, then China and Russia follows. The EU to become a global power has to change into a state. She can does it anytime member states wish that.
Problem with EU that all the resources are outside of her. I agree her real chance would be creating an interdependent deal with Russia, basically allowing Russia to join EU. There are always efforts on building bridges, Macron tried to do so.
>non-hegemonic, inclusivist approach is real power of EU
There are barely anyone outside EU now. Ex-Yugo, Albania. The parastate Kosovo. Norway and Switzerland are members in every way that matters except in name (so no voting rights). The big naysayer, the UK is out. As I heard Turkey doesn't really wanna join anymore. Georgia and Moldova is in, perhaps Bosnia too. What will be left from Ukraine will be crammed in (well at least how things stand at the moment).

Bernd 02/01/2024 (Thu) 19:26 [Preview] No.51597 del
>EU isn't a global power because EU is an international economic organization (bit similarly to BRICS, except more demanding, has to give up part all the parts that matter of sovereignty).
More like a surpranational but whatever.

The reason EU won't be a super power is not forming a state rather they don't have what it takes to do so, I mean when you go outside touch grass, vulgarly speaking, nobody thinks EU as a possible challenger, so it's a circlejerk, a manufactured narrative.
Russia didn't need to join EU to work a deal rather needed concessions depending on what they need(hint, it's not land but Putin thinks otherwise).

> As I heard Turkey doesn't really wanna join anymore. Georgia and Moldova is in, perhaps Bosnia too. What will be left from Ukraine will be crammed in (well at least how things stand at the moment).
Half of the people from both seculars and Erdo crowd never wanted to join since 2000's. This intensified after 2013 Gezi Parkı revolt and refugee crisis as EU signed a deal with Erdoğan that any leader with a spine never accept, basically using the country as dumping ground for pennies. You guys are slow, too many guys can't catch up with events happened 10 years ago or gold fish memory but so sure about their opinions, not finger pointing you ofc.

>. The parastate Kosovo. Norway and Switzerland are members in every way that matters except in name (so no voting rights).

So they're not members and it's beneficial for them except being a decider which doesn't make sense due to low represanter number in EU parliament. Switzerland keeps their stuff intact, no loss of sovereignity and Norway keeps their fishing sector alive and keeps their oil money for themselves.

I doubt hush hush attempts towards federal state and increasing EU authority will work due to domestic problems. Pinning every EU-sceptic opinion to pro-Russian shills or to other scapegoats will get old quickly. Blaming "the fifth column" and "dem foreigners out there to get you" is a classic autocrat playbook and it's nothing but a lose-lose for EU countries if they adapt it.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 01:21 [Preview] No.51598 del
I think the problem with the idea of the EU as an international power is that they really don't have much of a common foreign policy and what common policies they have are also common with the US.
There aren't really any military threats to them either, Russia is weak and most EU nations are part of NATO(though the war is militarising Russia so they are probably more of a threat now than before) so their isn't much motivation for it. Really the EU is more of an economic entity than a geopolitical one and I think they are happy like that and that's for the best.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 03:15 [Preview] No.51599 del
Retard tor lurker, I remember tor casing no country ball to appear above posting and being something of a no no here, but bare with me for just one second.

Hard power versus soft power I think would be a better lens for this debate over one side being weaker or stronger than the other. In a perfect world of advancing capitalism and economic stability, I think the EU does have a chance to dominate. For soft power is influence. Slowly building soft power is an erosion on hard power like sugars and teeth. Not rocking the boat for prosperity is attractive and most would slowly trade freedom for comfort and to the average citizen of some Eastern, Central or balkanized European country, the amount of autonomy and civil protection afforded to them is superior. Just at the expense of the sovereignty of their country!

Hard power? Hard power matters. Is Russia all that weak? They could nuke Europe off the face of the planet! The US' own nukes and the sheer level of destruction to their own economic interests means they won't make that choice rationally but a combination of factors I won't go into here have made them try to do more "hard power" maneuvers. Ukraine is hard power versus soft power. (with Ukrainian nationalism in the middle). The EU's and West sanctions didn't weaken Russia as much as they wished but did weaken their own soft power and gave Russia and China some of it. Yet, Russia's own neighbor's Russia has lost a great deal of soft power due to the fear of being invaded.

Hope I don't break flow of discussion. Have a nice day /kc/.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 10:01 [Preview] No.51600 del
I don't view Hard Power and Softpower as in opposition to each other as in many cases they are influenced by the same factors(such as the size of a nation's economy).

But speaking of Hard and Soft power, the Lowy institute releases an Indo-Pacific power ranking each years that ranks power and also goes into detail in various categories that make up Soft and Hard power. Here is 2023's Power index. As it's for the Indo Pacific it does not include Europe(but it does include Russia).


I also think that the EU can dominate with Soft Power but they don't need to federalise to do that and I would say they already are a Soft Power Superpower. I think it's Hard power that the EU will have problems with because of their divergence in foreign policy interests like I mentioned. Germany for example is the large Economy in the EU and the 4th largest in the world(and it's close to being 3rd) and while militarily they do have in interest in defending themselves and they do have a military equipped to do that(even though, yes, it does have issues) they have minimal interests outside of Europe so their ability to project power is incredibly weak, much weaker than that of France, the UK or even Italy or even Spain. Federalising would only make this worse as Germany and the Eastern states would always try to divert resources away from power projecting assets such as the Navy and foreign military bases.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 13:33 [Preview] No.51601 del
Orbán had his ~20 minutes long interview this morning - similarly to the last time when he did not vetoed Ukraine's EU integration.
Basically he reiterated what they presented yesterday: he got "strong guarantees" that the money of the Hungarian people lol won't end up in Ukraine. And that the deal will be renegotiated yearly. For the first point: I believe he presents how the EU budget works untruthfully, for the second we already know it won't look like that.
In the rest of the 20 mins he talked about various stuff related to the topic. He said that this €50 billion is for the upkeep of the Ukrainian state, for the wage of bureaucrats, public workers, for the pensions, for the hospitals, education, etc.
He said the EU has a separate budget, the so called "peace facility", where they allocate the money spent on weapons. He said that is a separate discussion entirely. He said Hungary doesn't participate in the allocation.
Btw, Orbán had a different suggestion how to send money to Ukraine, how to finance it. This 50 billion deal is going from the regular pre-negotiated 7 year budget of the EU. He wanted to get the money from a different source or whatever (it doesn't really matter, the point is he did not say he don't want to send money).

I like how that circle on picrel looks like a halo/gloriole. Kek.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 15:08 [Preview] No.51602 del
Russia also had softpower and enormous amount of shills they're faltered and their incapable hard power is result of it. If Russia sucessfully invaded Kiev within 15 days, for Europe it'd be another Georgia, not to mention only after Ukraine showed it's capability and Russia did the opposite Germand and France showed real support, instead of sending helmets and medical tools for "atleast we tried" effort.

EU does not have that softpower as much as you think, USA still softpower and culture wise is indusputed hegemon. Even with USA constantly exporting clown shit, EU can't show a spine against them. And both soft power and hardpower are important but they're not substitute for each other.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 16:21 [Preview] No.51603 del
(18.55 MB 640x360 mr-smith-mindset.mp4)
Well, we could say it's not organization, but cooperation too. I understand what you mean, but it's just semantics. Whatever indeed.

I still uphold that EU is not global power because it is not a state. While organizations get more and more role in international politics (heck, even individual people, like Musk or even Greter has some role these days), states still are the main actors, and organizations play important part because states recognized their use.
But, I can go to the next level of steps and examine why EU does not turn into a sovereign state. There are several factors. One is that the US holds each member state on a leash by other means (such as NATO). Another is that the large economical factors has no real interest in it; they already think globally, and look at and play on the global market. Borders, states don't mean shit to them, beyond things that prevent free trade. Since they have that already in EU - unless they want to push for the privatization of all the sectors - for them it matters little if people vote for over 100 individual parliaments or just one.
>nobody thinks EU as a possible challenger,
The US is enough to think that. The US fears that. This is why they reinforce NATO now, this is why they need Russia as the boogeyman. Mr. Smith in this video reflects this mindset well (he talks about the Ukraine war ofc, but this is what I have at hand).

>Norway, Switzerland
>not members and it's beneficial for them
They have to keep every EU regulations. They have to enact laws that follow those regulations. They have the same stunted sovereignty as any other EU member, except they don't have the right to vote in the question of those regulations.
>Norway [...] keeps their oil money for themselves
I'm not sure how that really works. Their state owns about 2/3 of the largest company that operates in Norway, but they are not the only one there.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 16:55 [Preview] No.51604 del
More or less.
As for the common foreign policy there is a will - at least on paper, or appearing in the media - that EU members have to show united front.
>isn't much motivation
Right now there is a huge campaign to show how threatening Russia is, and Russia will attack NATO and Europe. Zelensky's latest speech in Davos is part of that campaign.

>In a perfect world of advancing capitalism and economic stability
>The US' own nukes and the sheer level of destruction to their own economic interests means they won't make that choice rationally
It's all boils down on how the actors view themselves and the others. Especially in the West where they apply Realpolitik and liberalism selectively. They all about the common market, and that free market will fix everything, creating trade between countries and economical relationships prevent wars, and that have to create international organizations where states can express themselves and negotiate, but when it comes to Russia, they suddenly demand to cut these ties, and say they have to arm themselves.
>The EU's and West sanctions didn't weaken Russia as much as they wished but did weaken their own soft power and gave Russia and China some of it. Yet, Russia's own neighbor's Russia has lost a great deal of soft power due to the fear of being invaded.
I can agree on these.

>if their divergence in foreign policy interests
>try to divert resources away from power projecting assets such as the Navy and foreign military bases.
Well, now I'm thinking that there are always differing interest and opinions. Antique Athens had her own debate to build up army or the navy. They had their own decision making body and they opted for navy. US is the same. There are issues in the US which matters for the coastal regions with big cities, and there are issues the central "empty" rural US consider important. They have the decision making bodies and processes, and they deal with it. EU would be the same.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 20:48 [Preview] No.51607 del
>The US is enough to think that. The US fears that. This is why they reinforce NATO now, this is why they need Russia as the boogeyman. Mr. Smith in this video reflects this mindset well (he talks about the Ukraine war ofc, but this is what I have at hand).
Well they're being safe than sorry. Until EU has a coordinated a battle ready army and make European Theater of NATO redundant and develop their own silicion valley(not happening due to regulations and internal dynamics) they're not losing their sleep, especially since Russia's blunder made EU states cave into USA even more.

>They have to keep every EU regulations
Nope, I mean banking, fishing etc. stays as usual, for common trade they adapt many though this is not unique to Switzerland and Norway but was the case for Russia and Turkey, as well not sure baout nowadays, it's called Brussels effect though saying they're keeping every EU regulation is exaggeration.

Bernd 02/02/2024 (Fri) 21:03 [Preview] No.51608 del
EU doesn't really need battle ready army. She needs to keep her nukes (well, France's nukes), but beyond that just some army. With a deal which builds interdependence with Russia (or better yet, having Russia in EU, and Russia comes with more nukes, and more military), there is noone who would attack the EU.
Beyond these borders the countries are either too weak and disorganized, or involved in heavy trade with the EU.
This is the thing:
Realism says war is inevitable, so have to raise security.
Liberalism says trade (economical ties), international organizations, and democracies prevent war. So raising security (creating a battle ready army), isn't that important.
If they could follow liberalism consistently (building trade, and involve her with the EU international organization) they could tame Russia, and turn her into a democracy.

Norway and Switzerland have way more ties to the EU (for example they are within Schengen), which means more pressure to conform.

Bernd 02/03/2024 (Sat) 05:02 [Preview] No.51609 del
There are always differences in opinion but the US is still one nation not many seperate ones and the rural internal areas are also much less populated and industrialised than the coastal states(as opposed to Germany who is the largest state in the EU).

Bernd 02/03/2024 (Sat) 11:35 [Preview] No.51610 del
If national parliaments and states got abolished, EU would be one nation, not separate ones. Regions would also get more role which often overstretch original state boundaries.
And then how much "power projection" EU would need? The aforementioned soft power (in the form of being a rich market, and also a supplier of goods too, not to mention cultural influence) worth more than foreign military bases.

Bernd 02/03/2024 (Sat) 14:57 [Preview] No.51611 del
The EU won't ever be one nation as such even if that happened, it's too diverse and has too much of a history and too many unique factors within each region so I don't think they would ever think of themselves as one nation.

While the EU as a whole does not need to project much power, there are 2.7 Million French people who live in overseas territories of France and not in Metropolitan France and in addition France has many interests in Africa. So France individually needs to project power and so the French portion of a federalized EU would always push for a more external foreign policy.

Bernd 02/03/2024 (Sat) 15:14 [Preview] No.51612 del
I disagree.
The homogenization of the population will happen in our lifetime. There are many internal migrants, mainly those who moved from Eastern EU countries to get a job in the West, and the migration from external sources will only strengthen. Chiefly this will happen in the West more but still.
As for France if EU becomes a state there won't be any France anymore. There won't be any French citizens, only EU citizens. EU would have to care about those.
In your scenario those factors won't support the EU becoming a state and dissolution of France in the first place. And these people and companies and institutions and whatever IRL do exist.
They can be also part of the group who has no interest in unified EU, because they look beyond, are globalist, and want no border anywhere.
So in a sense I do agree with the first part that the EU won't ever be one nation.
In fact I should note that I believe that such unification, that eradicates national borders and abolishes national legislation and governments in the following decades won't happen. The phenomenon, that time to times voices in Brussels demands to change decision making of the EU Council form unanimous to simple majority, I dunno where it will lead.

Bernd 02/04/2024 (Sun) 01:37 [Preview] No.51613 del
I don't think it will. While there is a lot of movement between EU states I don't think it's enough, it's also not really new, they often keep their ethnic identities and there are parallels with internal divisions in states like Spain. Sure that's one nation and there is a lot of internal migration there but the Catalonians as a whole still don't see themselves as Spanish and they still want to be independent. I think that if there were a federal EU you would end up with a whole bunch of Catalonians only much larger.

French Guyana and New Caledonia are not a EU colonies, no other EU nation has a connection to them but France. I think that given Germany's apologist nature, they would see French colonial holdings much differently and not only would they not want to invest in the means to retain them but they would probably push for them to be released as independent states.
And the French are some of the least likely to homogenise with the rest of the EU as well.

Yes, that's true.

Bernd 02/04/2024 (Sun) 18:26 [Preview] No.51614 del
(160.40 KB 1200x838 Lancet.jpg)
(120.44 KB 1920x1269 Leleka-100.jpg)
Back to actual warfare from poolitics:
Are we going to see self-flying AI/ML operated drones in this war?
Drone warfare evolves in the Russo-Ukrainian war constantly, as each side adapts to the new equipment and tactics, they also come up with new equipment and tactics.
Meanwhile Machine Learning evolves constantly. And unlike in civilian application, like in self-driving cars, here the point will be to cause collisions...
Beside the limitations of technology, the major factor is cost effectiveness. Running hundreds of drones need lots of computational power. But how much?

Oh and when we arrive to these drones, when will Skynet take over the world?

Bernd 02/04/2024 (Sun) 19:43 [Preview] No.51615 del
Searched a bit around.
What a shitty article. But. Apparently the latest models of the Lancet has some "AI capabilities". Basically as it can detect, recognize, and engage targets on it's own. Reminds me of "fire-and-forget" rockets, this is a launch-and-forget drone basically. Can watch the recorded video after the drone's display blinks offline.
Lancets seems to gain more and more range. Which means they can force AFU to abandon the shorter ranged heavy equipment. Well if Russia can produce and launch the Lancets in growing number.
I wonder if they could paradrop some team inside Ukraine and supply them with Lancets, perhaps with the goal of taking out HIMARS-es. I dunno.

Bernd 02/05/2024 (Mon) 16:35 [Preview] No.51616 del
"Major" change just north of Avdiivka, Russians pushed south on both end of that lake, Ukrainians gave up the land inbetween, withdrew.
I think next Russians try to reach that road on the other side of town, one of the "lifelines" for the defenders of the town proper. I think Ukrainians will gradually give up land, especially when Russians finally reach that road. In the end I expect the front to be stabilized somewhere at the blue line.
I don't expect the coke plant fall, I think very tough resistance is organized there.
I wouldn't even guess how long this will take.

Some speculations after this... Russians still have to occupy the rest of Donetsk oblast. Important towns are Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, chief nests for the separatists movements when hell broke out back in 2014-15. And there is the rest of Zaporozhia and Kherson.
Still I think next big battle (like Bakhmut and Avdiivka) will be either at Siversk or Chasiv Yar. Perhaps Siversk. Russians might try advance along that road from Bakhmut towards Sloviansk more, then close on Siversk.

Bernd 02/05/2024 (Mon) 19:50 [Preview] No.51617 del
You don't launch a nuke in proxy conflicts, Russia didn't do that for example. Nukes are used only if it's war of survival since others also have it, we're not talking about that.

Homogenization doesn't happen in a way you think Europeans are very exclusivist, especially Western Europeans which goes under the rader because of championing memorized politically correct sayings and behaviour, that hardly anybody genuiely believes behind closed doors, almost like communist country where nobody believes in the official bullshit, this is closest you get in a free country. The only reason Eastern Europeans accepted to a degree is because perception of danger by other migrants and desperation. Sheer influence of US also changes the dynamics between immigrants and natives. Even the educated guys I know from here, Bulgaria and ex-YU countries can't assimilate as Germans want you to deny your own background(literally Turkey under military dictatorship in 80's) and only to bring it up whenever you rub them in the wrong way, I mean we did that shit out of security paranoia and dictatorship, Germans do it, just because of delusional worldview and hypocrisy and I don't imagine it's different elsewhere, in places it matters I mean.

Imagine not being able to assimilate even the ones they want to, which brings the question of weak identity of "EU values" which is not a set value but something used like a weapon and wore like an armor, similar to USA bringing "democracy" to others. There is a real democracy and real EU values, it doesn't change the fact how it's used though.

The power of identities are critically important which is why Israel despite overpowering Palestinians, can't seem to end the war without forcibly sending Palestinians to another country which constitutes as genocide, not to mention it would create another refugee wave, but they skip that fact.

Another example would be despite Russian corruption and overall lack of morals among elites and nihilism in young population, many far-right people saw Putin's Russia as embodiement of masculinity, traditional values but turns out it's not and never has been. The desperation was so bad they had to cling to a corrupt regime that wants to subvert their country. The truth was always there, I think we both saw it, but we must ask why the others couldn't? It's not because we're super smart it's because the EU doesn't inspire and give identity as much as you guys assume. Trolling Russians for being collectivistic mongols and Americans for being fat, not having walkable cities etc. only creates a very niche value that only some internet nerds give a damn about. The potential is there but no reason to use it, if one is content with bliss of the ignorance.

Bernd 02/05/2024 (Mon) 19:55 [Preview] No.51618 del
We're talking about nukes because nukes guarantee that no war will broke out between nuclear powers. There won't be war between NATO and Russia due to MAD if Ukraine still had her nukes she inherited from the Soviet Union - instead of the paper guarantee from NATO - we wouldn't have this excellent war. So basically this way we can rule out participants in military conflicts, and look around for possible enemies. And whatever EU would need to face in the hypothetical scenario above, for that she wouldn't need that big of an army.

cont. Bernd 02/05/2024 (Mon) 19:57 [Preview] No.51619 del
e.g. the EU wouldn't need an army that could face US or Chiner, but would need an army that could enter in the Libyan civil war.

Bernd 02/06/2024 (Tue) 02:55 [Preview] No.51620 del
(118.72 KB 1101x1573 Miho 051.jpg)
There is still the possibility that the Ukrainians may send their intact armoured formations(such the as of yet unused Abrhams formations) to counter attack in the area.

There is talk of a 2025 Ukrainian offensive which would imply that the Ukrainians would not send them in, so this will be something to watch over the year.

Bernd 02/06/2024 (Tue) 08:21 [Preview] No.51622 del
Ukrainian telly showed one Abrams at Avdiivka (seen on WillyOAM). Perhaps they have that battalion in the area, I assume partially for testing purposes see how it fares. Frozen ground is good for it. But we might just see them in action (with couple of losses, but that's war), in counterattacks.

Bernd 02/06/2024 (Tue) 08:46 [Preview] No.51623 del
>Homogenization doesn't happen in a way you think
Actually, homogenization doesn't happen in a way you think. Homogenization is like the United States.
Mainstream media erodes national identity further, and the norm will be over 9000 languages coexisting in the same street. Sure there will be ethnographic reservations, so tourists can get the local color.
Even today doesn't matter where you go, you'll find mcdolans, lidl and kebab everywhere, while people wearing the same chink made clothing (Western brand names sewed on in Turkey, Polan, and Italy).
Sure people are bigots everywhere this doesn't mean they won't go with the flow, and won't surrender to conveniences. And there won't be any race riots on behalf of the "aboriginal" Europeans.
I bet some bastardized language will emerge so basic thought exchange can take place - but actually even that won't be needed, you just pull out the phone and it'll translate anything, you don't even have to ask how much for a döner, just beep you phone and payed.

Bernd 02/06/2024 (Tue) 08:55 [Preview] No.51624 del
Not to mention the newer generations growing up. How many from generation X Germans knows what's to be a German? How many zoomers know? How can they teach their kids about that? In our lifetime is about 40-50 years. Zoomers will be grandparents by then. Today here in Europe noone has real ethnic character anymore.
They will be social media citizens.
But this really isn't Syria war topic.

Bernd 02/06/2024 (Tue) 09:20 [Preview] No.51625 del
That's what I'm saying though. It's simply globalization lead by US, not some EU unique stuff which creates a weak identity under US hegemony. USA despite race obsessed weirdos including wokes, made progress on the issue, western Europe on the other hand not really. And I've seen too many examples of people focusing on far future only to get ripped of their close future.

Bernd 02/07/2024 (Wed) 13:13 [Preview] No.51631 del
(915.16 KB 1184x879 2024-02-07-avdiivka.png)
Situation develops day by day. Has the Russians found a soft spot? Has the Ukrainians no time or troops the consolidate? Or maybe they have more defensible lines a bit further back?

Bernd 02/07/2024 (Wed) 14:35 [Preview] No.51634 del
(2.57 MB 1916x913 view-avdiivka.png)
(2.88 MB 1918x914 view-avdiivka2.png)
(2.80 MB 1919x915 view-avdiivka3.png)
(2.77 MB 1919x915 view-avdiivka4.png)
Made some screenshots of google street view / 360 photos uploaded by users around Avdiivka.
They have some cool stuff there.
Last pic is at the lake Russian currently gained ground.

Bernd 02/07/2024 (Wed) 14:36 [Preview] No.51635 del
(1.50 MB 1919x916 view-coke-plant.png)
And one from within the coke plant. Weird thing: not all street view points are available to view around this facility. What's up with that? Google censor them because of the fighting there?

Bernd 02/08/2024 (Thu) 16:48 [Preview] No.51638 del
Should be noted at this point, creating a sort of timestamp, a log of how things stand.
Relatively large advances on behalf of the RAF (AFRF, not the Royal Air Force), on multiple places along the eastern front line (from the corner in the south to the Russian border in the north) during this winter, and especially in the last days. Notable places (from south to north):
- Novomikhailivka
- Marinka
- Avdiivka
- Bakhmut
(- Siversk had some movement back and forth, Vesele is now on Russian hands)
- Kreminna (Terny direction)
- Kupiansk (near Tabaivka and Lyman Pershi)
There were no important settlements taken yet, but the momentum seems strong as for now.

Bernd 02/08/2024 (Thu) 22:12 [Preview] No.51639 del
The circus is going around this for at least a month now, today became official, in the commander-in-chief position Zaluzhny was swapped by Syrsky, who was the commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces - which is one of the branches of the AFU. Basically he made one step upwards (unless we consider the General Staff a step between the two).
What will be Zhaluzhny's next job? It seems Zelensky "proposed" another job, but looks like in the "state team" so perhaps in civilian(-ish) role?
I don't think we'll experience noticable change - for we won't know how events were unfolded if Zhaluzhny remained in his position.
The war goes on.

Bernd 02/09/2024 (Fri) 08:41 [Preview] No.51640 del
(1.66 MB 2045x2277 Touhou Kagerou 005.jpg)
I have been hearing talk about that for a while now, I'm not sure what the point of this is meant to be but clearly somebody thinks there is one. Either that or there is some behind the scenes political infighting going on.

Bernd 02/09/2024 (Fri) 17:55 [Preview] No.51641 del
Perhaps Zaluzhny will run for the Presidency. I dunno if it's really political infighting, or they try to make a case for a candidate who is seemingly in opposition with Zelensky, and who can be run as someone who isn't part of his system. Since some of the possible opposition parties are banned, and they have to appear democratic for the EU support, but they (and their US "puppet masters") don't want to change the direction.
Previously Z n Z looked looked like a united front, until commander-in-chief started to recognize great losses and setbacks. Still I would think in goals they still agree on.

Bernd 02/09/2024 (Fri) 18:40 [Preview] No.51642 del
(1.23 MB 1280x720 take-it.mp4)
Goddamit Vladdy, I thought we're partitioning Ukraine any day now!

So I watched/listened the Putin interview by Tucker Carlson. It was long and boring, and basically he reiterated the same things he usually talks about.
Here's Michael Rossi's channel (of Rutgers), he translates speeches and interviews and appearences and whatnot from Putin (and Lavrov):
I think in the Results of the Year videos Putin covers some of the points. At least the little I watched from those I noticed some overlaps.
Anyway it was very comprehensive, they were talking (well mostly Putin) about all kinds of stuff.

The only question I still haven't heard an answer to is:
>Why did he invade Ukraine?

Bernd 02/09/2024 (Fri) 18:40 [Preview] No.51643 del
So why Russia invaded Ukraine?

But I tell you, Bernd, it's actually very simple. It's REALPOLITIK!
According to realism, the international scene is anarchic (ie. there is no regulation, or a higher power that forces an order on it), and states have to make decisions in the fog of war, in a state of incomplete knowledge. And the fact that they can't know exactly what other states are doing, and why they are doing it, this makes them paranoid.
States are obsessing over two things: security and power. They raise security so they can raise their power, and they raise power to raise their security.
Security is both military and influencing others. Power is the ability to make decisions as we know it from the Theory of Power..., and states try to make sure they make their own decisions, but also they try to make decisions for others. The latter is done via soft power (influences, cultural, economical), various diplomatic tools (partially soft power, but partially hard), and with military might. Again they do this to increase their own security and power.
Realists also believe war is inevitable, and if it comes to that, have to act fast and decisively.
So there are three states:
A b C
'A' and 'C' are major powers, 'b' is a minor. When 'A' and 'C' look at 'b' they'll see how weak she is, and how easily could be taken. Since this is the thing that came to their mind, they suppose the other think the same thing. Then 'A' and 'C' will think it would be quite uncomfortable if the other would extend the influence over 'b', so both start to do just that. First they'll use diplomatic tools, they'll try economic and cultural ways, but the race becomes harder as they try to buy the leadership of 'b', perhaps doing even a coup or two, and at one point one of the side we'll recognize she run out of steam and losing the diplomatic battle, and have no tools left but the last argument of kings. So that side will start a war, trying to occupy, annex 'b' - so she can both preserve her own security by denying the other to acquire 'b', and raise her own power by incorporating 'b'.
'A' is the USA with NATO.
'b' is Ukraine
'C' is Russia.

There are many other considerations. Like from the Ukraine the flight time of ICBMs to Moscow is way shorter than those launched from the US, UK, France, or the seas. Or that Ukraine can offer great amount of foodstuff, or big ports, or any other economic assets. Or that there is in fact a sizeable Russian minority there. Or that historically Ukraine is an "artificial construct". Or anything really.
But all just circumstances that make this particular situation unique. And all just rationalizations. In it's core it's this abstract process above.

Bernd 02/10/2024 (Sat) 06:03 [Preview] No.51644 del
I expected as much which is why I did not watch it, I have seen interviews with him from before the war and I don't expect his rhetoric to change.

Bernd 02/10/2024 (Sat) 06:12 [Preview] No.51645 del
Ohh and also, Happy Lunar New Year everybody. I thought about making a thread for it but decided not too.
Well I am sure all the people in the trenches will be celebrating the arrival of the year of the Dragon as well.

Bernd 02/10/2024 (Sat) 09:07 [Preview] No.51646 del
I dunno, perhaps for those who aren't really look into stuff (like the Nord Stream 2 bombing) - because can't make the effort, don't have time, or don't know how or where to start - it feels new. And compared to any Biden appearances (with him losing the train of thought or mixing up words) it's really laid back. Putin articulates his points well, but it's not something he has to think a lot about, these his usual lines. For great many in the US (or in the West in general where they really suppress anything that comes from the other side - just need to look through DW's headlines, or block sites like RT I can't reach it from the Hungary - last I tried and so on) it could come like a breeze of fresh air.
But not sure if all of them realizes that this is the viewpoint of Moscow, and just use it to fuel their enmity towards the current establishment.

Happy New Year!
There's a thread somewhere I post new year's wishes - probably a xmas thread - with a chinese new year card. >>51455 >>51456

Bernd 02/10/2024 (Sat) 09:22 [Preview] No.51647 del
I don't either, but I think a lot of those in the political realm start to meme and think too much in one or the other. Russia forgot fundamentals a slightly softer hand and maintaining influence with her neighbors might have lost a lot less blood and treasure. EU/West forgot that moralfaging and sanctions aren't going to stop a country with as much resources and a somewhat functional defense industrial base as Russia. Though honestly I should've just started with that.

Largely agree, though:
>Or that Ukraine can offer great amount of foodstuff, or big ports, or any other economic assets
>But all just circumstances that make this particular situation unique. And all just rationalizations. In it's core it's this abstract process above.
I'd argue that abstraction is too much and in fact things like economic assets and a large Russian population (and a significant population of a very closely related ethic group) do matter more than rationalizations for pure power politics and are very much at the heart of paranoia and security in the calculus of Russia.

The interview was... what I expected. I did think Tucker, in his reaction to it, was spot in pointing out that Putin talks like someone who savors everyword but it is a rambling mess.

Happy Lunar New Year!

and now, back into being a silent tor lurker once more. Just had a couple of things I wanted to say.

Bernd 02/10/2024 (Sat) 09:22 [Preview] No.51648 del
Btw, DW writes:
>former British military intelligence officer Frank Ledwidge warned that Syrskyi was "less popular with the troops" due to his being "less casualty-averse" than Zaluzhnyi.
And then they quote Syrsky:
>"We see that people are cannon fodder to them," he told Ukrainian broadcaster 1+1. "We have a whole different approach. To us, the people are the highest value.
And then Ledwidge again:
>I have no doubt at all that [Syrskyi] is recommending right now, as we speak, that the Ukrainians hold on as long as they can in Avdiivka, regardless of the cost, just as he did during the Bakhmut campaign
Do Ukrainian leaders want to kill as many Ukrainians as possible? God knows how much time they left to do it...


Bernd 02/10/2024 (Sat) 09:56 [Preview] No.51649 del
True, Russia really needs to focus more on it's soft power(though it's too late now), so does China. China in particular has the potential to become the largest soft power in the world if it was not for their government and their rhetoric. Imagine if they had a similar government to Japan? They would be like Japan only with a population 10 times as large and a country much larger and that is resource rich. They would dominate in the entertainment sphere and having a western style government would get rid of much of the excuses that the west could use to justify seeing her as an adversary.

I guess his response to the Avdiivka situation will show what kind of leader he is. It looks like the situation there is even worse than Bahkmut, though I don't know if there are as many people fighting there as in Bahkmut.
There was talk that Ukraine was going to pull out but if they stay it will display what kind of commander Syrskyi is.

Bernd 02/10/2024 (Sat) 12:25 [Preview] No.51650 del
I already see the communications about Avdiivka:
1. If he holds Avdiivka as long as possible:
- pro-Rus: he unnecessarily threw Ukrainians into the meat grinder
- pro-Uki: he heroically held the town grinding down Russian forces, and engaging them so they can't be used elsewhere on the front
2. If he withdraws in timely fashion:
- pro-Rus: he failed to hold the stronghold
- pro-Uki: it was strategically unimportant, also conserved many lives

Bernd 02/11/2024 (Sun) 18:21 [Preview] No.51652 del
(22.50 KB 921x606 facepalm.jpg)
To expand on this post above >>51650
This is so fucking stupid:
Bakhmut happened when Zaluzhny was commander-in-chief. Critics blaming Syrsky for not withdrawing from Bakhmut but throwing more bodies into the meatgrinder.
Now that Avdiivka is still holding critics blame it on swapping Zaluzhny with Sir Ski in the position of commander-in-chief.

Bernd 02/14/2024 (Wed) 08:56 [Preview] No.51660 del
Douple encirclement. The guys in the south in that small pocket, and Avdiivka itself. If AFU isn't doing it already they really should get the guys out from both.
I think both regular and guerrilla warfare experts agree that the hardest test for an army is breaking out from an encirclement.
Heavy losses unavoidable.

I heard - perhaps on Military Summary yt channel - Russia started to use personal electronic warfare equipment to scramble drone communication. Just one dude can darken a 100-150 m radius. Supposedly this is one of the keys to the success at Avdiivka. Proofs: no drone footage from the area.
But I dunno one thing: how their own drones operate?

Bernd 02/14/2024 (Wed) 08:59 [Preview] No.51661 del
Apropos Starlink.
I think it's just a blowback for Musk let the Putin interview on extwitter, even added to the hype.

Bernd 02/14/2024 (Wed) 09:20 [Preview] No.51662 del
I think it's too late for a withdrawal now, not without accepting huge losses or not unless they can manage to launch a counter attack and open the route out back up.

Thinking about it, maybe this was never intentional but the Russian breakthrough in the north was underestimated and has now pushed too far for a Ukrainian withdrawal. I don't actually think anybody(in Ukraine) wants this as while yes it may tie up Russian forces for a while it will also end up like Mariupol rather than Bahkmut in that Russia is going to end up with large numbers of Ukrainian POWs.

In addition to that, it may not even tie Russian forces up as much as it did in Mariupol of Bahkmut anyway. Mariupol was quite urban and had Azovstal with it's labyrinths filled with supplies, Bahkmut was also more built up and had the Soledar mines. It seems that Avdiivka has some industrial facilities in the north but they are in the north and already separated form the rest of Avdiivka. It's not clear how much supply they have there either(I guess we will see).

As for EW. Maybe, but then also the fighting in Mariupol was mostly done by Chechens and in Bahkmut is was mainly Wagner. Both of which post far more material than the regular Russian army does which might be why not much drone footage(and other footage) is coming out.
And Ukraine probably would not post drone footage if it was showing things going badly for them, plus in Ukraine also there are certain units that are more liberal with footage than others.

Bernd 02/14/2024 (Wed) 14:02 [Preview] No.51663 del
This has great potential.

It's never too late. They have to break out. If they leave the troops there, those will all lost in one way or another.

Bernd 02/16/2024 (Fri) 19:06 [Preview] No.51664 del
(290.18 KB 2835x1890 Alexei_Navalny.jpg)
Navalny died in prison. Extremely suspicious in every sense. Another case
I don't see how Moscow can profit from his death. It's just more ammo for Western accusations. I mean Bucha, Nord Stream 2, Kakhovka dam, Prigozhin, 2024 US election are all blamed on Putin & Co. ... Now this.

Bernd 02/16/2024 (Fri) 19:16 [Preview] No.51665 del
Meanwhile Avdiivka is falling.
HistoryLegends had interesting addition. That "second road" into Avdiivka on the DeepState map isn't a road at all, just the same dirt path inbetween fields as everywhere else. I think we (like everyone who follows) knew that is a dirt path, but it's weirdly accentuated, and seemingly everyone treated it as a serious (or at least half-serious) lifeline.
So basically now Avdiivka isn't connected to anything really.
On the other hand this particular youtuber might have made a deal about it to make things more dramatic. There are differences between dirt road and dirt road.

Bernd 02/17/2024 (Sat) 13:18 [Preview] No.51666 del
So they withdrawing from Avdiivka after all. Well at least they'll try, sound like this is not the 23rd, neither the 24th hour, but the 25th...

Zelensky in München said this is a good and necessary decision to preserve the soldiers' life. He also said Ukraine is kept in an "artificial weapon shortage". He added, that the capture of Avdiivka doesn't mean that Russia captured something.

Here's an article reports the words of an Ukrainian soldier who was part of the unit that defended Zenit, that southern fortification/AA base which was given up yesterday. They are the part of the 110th Mechanized Brigade. The first attempt to break out from the encirclement and return to Avdiivka proper was on the 14th. Next day they were promised evacuation but help never came, then they decided to leave again, were ordered to leave wounded. The main body of the brigade was pulling out from Avdiivka by then.

Bernd 02/17/2024 (Sat) 13:21 [Preview] No.51667 del
And here's the updated map of today. The whole town noted to be captured. With the coke plant in the north. So my guess >>51616 proved to be optimistic. It seems that facility isn't that strongly fortified to hold, or perhaps there is no good route to supply anyone there.

Bernd 02/17/2024 (Sat) 14:24 [Preview] No.51669 del
That was quick, I guess I was wrong here. >>51662

Bernd 02/18/2024 (Sun) 07:39 [Preview] No.51670 del
Surprisingly quick.
>I was wrong here. >>51662
You mean the too late for withdrawal? Perhaps you weren't and the AFU leadership just cut losses and left everyone in there who left. They call those who made it out "withdrawn" and that's it.
>it may not even tie Russian forces up as much as it did in Mariupol of Bahkmut anyway.
You were definitely right here.

Bernd 02/18/2024 (Sun) 08:18 [Preview] No.51671 del
I wonder if the correct term in case of the AFU is "rout".

Bernd 02/19/2024 (Mon) 08:09 [Preview] No.51672 del
There is some movement between Orikhov and Tokmak near Robotyne. Now in reverse direction.
Youtube mappers and sitreppers noted yesterday that the Russians might have started an offensive in Zaporozhia oblast too.

Bernd 02/20/2024 (Tue) 20:04 [Preview] No.51675 del
>It seems that facility isn't that strongly fortified to hold, or perhaps there is no good route to supply anyone there.
It used to have the O0542 road and another one from Orlivka. They must've abandoned the coke plant because Russian pressure was unbearable, the local garrison had been hollowed out to reinforce other areas and/or general confusion had taken over their forces in the area.

Bernd 02/20/2024 (Tue) 20:31 [Preview] No.51676 del
I suspect that the northerly road is a dirt path (like the "second road" to Avdiivka) along a gully. Soggy to borderline boggy.

In the past couple of days I had the feeling the Ukrainian army is done. It's retreat from now own. More cracks will follow and they'll have to fall back, and then from elsewhere to avoid encirclement. And then there will be very little prepared lines at all. And then Ukraine will be "demilitarized".
The AFU run out of trained men (especially experienced), weapons, and ammunition. It is still a relatively capable army but not for the task this size anymore.
Then perhaps NATO involvement will happen, and some of the NATO countries will enter Ukraine to establish a security zone in the most Western areas. Perhaps they'll cite humanitarian reasons, for there will be another flood of refugees that the control of Kiev breaking down, and people can leave.
I can't say I can support this with hard facts. The freshly occupied patches of lands aren't significant enough. It just seems more rapid this year.

Bernd 02/20/2024 (Tue) 21:50 [Preview] No.51677 del
>In the past couple of days I had the feeling the Ukrainian army is done. It's retreat from now own. More cracks will follow and they'll have to fall back, and then from elsewhere to avoid encirclement. And then there will be very little prepared lines at all. And then Ukraine will be "demilitarized".
I think it's still far too early for that. Russia has been clearly winning for the past few months, and yet it can only manage slow, incremental territorial gains at a high cost. If it tried to mass troops for a "big arrow offensive", there would be no element of surprise and any deficiencies in officers, combined arms coordination and so on would become apparent. So slow advances like those taking place right now will continue, but maybe they'll happen in wider sectors of the front.

Bernd 02/20/2024 (Tue) 21:52 [Preview] No.51678 del
It is not a big arrow offensive what I described.

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